The international situation has changed rapidly in recent years. China has become more and more important on the global stage, but the pressure has also risen.
Especially in the gap between China-Russia relations and the game between Europe and the United States, China has to face some uncertainties. Two major variables are particularly eye-catching, one involves Europe's attitude, and the other directly points to Russia's movements.
If these variables go in a bad direction, China will have to rely more on its own strength.
In 2021, the U.S. Navy conducted a large-scale exercise called "LSE 2021", which from August 3 to 16 mobilized more than 25,000 people, 36 ships, and more than 50 virtual units.
The exercises covered 17 time zones in North America, Asia, Africa and Europe, with more than 80 units participating, across the Atlantic and the Pacific, and high-ranking U.S. officials said it was not a simple training, but the integration of sensors, weapons and platforms to practice the concepts of distributed naval operations, offshore confrontation and expedition advance bases.
Everyone can see that this is targeted strongly, targeting both China and Russia.
The U.S. military wants to deal with both Europe and the Indo-Pacific war zones simultaneously and test its ability to respond to Russian-Chinese double pressure.After the exercise, the U.S. side assessed communications delays and logistics issues and intended to use these experiences to upgrade integration.
From May 25 to 26, 2021, China and Russia held the 16th round of strategic security consultations in Moscow. Yang Jiechi and Nikolai Patrushev chaired the talks to discuss international security and strategic stability.
Putin also spoke by telephone with Yang Jiang and exchanged opinions.
Daniel Bochkov said that cooperation between the two countries is reaching its limit, and the form of a military alliance may have to be considered further. The focus of the meeting was geopolitical security and bilateral interactions.
At this time, Russia is facing pressure from the Biden government. after Biden took office, frequent actions against Russia, first pushing Ukraine to do business in Donbass, forcing Russia to station 150,000 troops at the border.
Following the expulsion of Russian diplomats by the United States of Latin-Eastern Europe, Russian-European relations became tighter.
On June 16, 2021, Biden and Putin met in Geneva to talk about Ukraine, cybersecurity and Iran's nuclear issues.The two sides agreed to launch a strategic stability dialogue, but the differences were not resolved.
Biden has military deterrence, geo-oppression and economic sanctions on these cards, Putin on the nuclear weapons, but can not move, one move to the end. Russia wants to retaliate, only with the help of China, through military technology to help China to raise the level of strategic bombers and nuclear submarines, to contain the United States.
The situation in China is even more difficult, with Biden, like Trump, viewing China as the “opponent number one” and all strategies revolving around this.
The whole U.S. military presses on China, and China has to face two major variables, which can directly rewrite the pattern of Sino-US game.
First, will Europe completely fall to the United States?On May 20, 2021, the European Parliament passed a resolution to freeze the China-EU Comprehensive Investment Agreement with a high vote, citing the Xinjiang issue, and also suspended trade disputes with the United States to target China together.
The agreement was negotiated at the end of 2020. It was originally intended to balance market access, but it became stuck after it was frozen.
Europe's wavering attitude is a big trouble for China. If Europe completely follows the United States, China's trade and investment space will be squeezed.
The second variable comes from whether Russia will reconcile with the United States.Biden invited Putin to meet was to use pressure to make a compromise, White House spokesman Pussaki said, looking at what the Russian side wants.
At this stage, Russia's turn to the United States is unrealistic, but reconciliation has a thin head. If Russia does not give China sensitive military technology and does not engage in strategic interaction, the United States will gain.
Russia is extremely cautious about technology exports. On June 25, 2020, Far East Customs detained 106 tons of nuclear submarine scrap steel that it wanted to be exported to China.
These scrap steel were cut by decommissioned submarines and declared as ordinary scrap, but there was no permission. Russia won't let go of scrap, let alone top gear. The two countries have high mutual trust, but technical cooperation has a bottom line.
US-Russian relations are cold and may also rebound, and China and Russia want to go a step deeper, and we have to see how to divide the profits.
On December 7, 2021, Biden and Putin had a two-hour video chat, focusing on Ukrainian border tensions. In February 2022, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out and China-Russia previously announced no ceiling for partnership.
After the conflict, trade between the two countries bucked the trend, with trade volume reaching US$244.8 billion in 2024. China has been Russia's largest trading partner for 15 consecutive years.
The two countries signed a statement on deepening the comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination in the new era, pushing the road map for the high-quality development of trade in goods and services, optimizing the structure and finding new growth points.
Militarily, at the end of November 2024, the ninth strategic bomber joint cruise, China with Bom-6N, Russia to D-30KP-2 engine support. China also develops Type 096 nuclear submarine, can carry 24 missiles, enhance underwater capabilities.
By 2030, China plans to have six aircraft carriers, including nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, equipped with advanced nuclear submarines and bombers.
Through its strength, China has restored its position in the world and is on an equal footing with powerful countries. The United States has to recognize this equality, and China wins development space and respect with facts.
Although the trade volume is high, China's imports to Russia decreased by 9.6% in the first half of the year, and the overall contraction.
The export of dual-use goods exceeded US $4 billion, but it fell again at the beginning of the year. Russia helped China equip and train air battalions, but leaked documents showed that military cooperation stopped at joint exercises and cruises, without formal alliances and major technology transfers.
Russia shares jet engines, but its core nuclear technology has not been let go. China's nuclear warheads exceed 600, and it is expected to reach 1,500 in 2035, but it still relies on its own research and development.
The Sino-European investment agreement was frozen until 2025 and the EU did not resume its intention because of the unresolved issues of ideology and sanctions.
The European Union has restricted Chinese companies from entering the market for medical equipment procurement. China's naval modernization is rapid, with ships expected to reach 395 in 2025, 435 in 2030, more than the U.S. Navy. The People's Liberation Army's defense budget for 2025 is 1,7847 trillion yuan, up to 119.1 billion.
The fourth aircraft carrier is under construction, possibly nuclear-powered super-large aircraft carrier.In May, the Fukushima ship was tested and distributed electromagnetic shells.
The rise of China is not a good way, and must be avoided by variables.The variables in Europe lie in trade and investment, while the variables in Russia lie in military and strategy. If Russia and the United States relent, or Europe moves closer to the United States, China will have to be self-reliant.
China's military science and technology has made great progress in recent years, with nuclear submarines from 093 to 096, bombers from H-6 to potential stealth, and aircraft carriers from Liaoning to Fujian to nuclear power.
The People's Liberation Army emphasized scientific and technological development, and in 2024 it that the nuclear arsenal exceeded 600, and the land, sea and air bases were ready.
Ballistic missiles and sea-based nuclear deterrents have become stronger. Russia and China have deep military diplomacy, but Russia is cautious about technology exports and is afraid of proliferation. The two countries engage in military diplomacy in Latin America and the Caribbean, but China relies more on economic influence.
In reality, China does not seek hegemony, but fairness. National rejuvenation is about restoring status, not taking someone else's jobs. The United States and the West have to adapt, and China has the strength to match them. China uses economic and military facts to make them admit it.
China has to be alert to these variables, but the bottom line is good. Russia’s partnership is stable, but technological cooperation is limited, and China has to rely on its own research and development. The European trade gate is not all about, but the freezing of the agreement drags back.
These variables remind China that the law of the international jungle is still there, and it is necessary to practice its internal strength.
References:
Where will the next Russian-Western game go? 2024-11-22
2. In the game between China and the United States, times and trends are on China's side Guangming Daily June 3, 2019