The contents of this article are written with authoritative materials and personal opinions. The source of the literature has been marked at the end of the article, so please know.
Trump pushed again, and the last hope of American bean farmers was broken.
October was supposed to be the end of the harvest season for soybeans in the United States and the peak export season, but farmers were frowning and counting on China to buy a few ships of soybeans to reduce their stocks, but they did not even wait for a cargo ship.
According to the United Morning Post and the Observer Network, the American Soybean Association began to be very anxious from the end of September. They have shouted to the government more than once, hoping to intervene and directly @ Trump to open the trade channel with China as soon as possible.
Because for the bean farmers, this is not just a job but a political one, and many of these bean farmers are Trump’s selected iron ticket zone in the agricultural state. He was his strongest supporter in 2016 and 2020.
When the farmers are waiting for orders, On October 9th, China's Ministry of Commerce suddenly issued seven export control measures in succession.The industrial products such as rare earths, lithium batteries, and superhard materials involved here almost include all important raw materials and technologies needed for high-end manufacturing in the United States. And most are “China-only, American-dependent” categories.
These counter-measures, which prescribe the right medicine, seem to be just minor repairs in technical trade management, are actually aimed at the core parts of American high-tech industry.
As soon as the news was released, the White House was silent and no one came out to speak. It was not until October 10 that the media began to ask questions, Trump replied with a little hesitation,"I just knew about it,"He also said that he would listen to the report before deciding what to do. He originally thought that the other party was just pretending to be calm, but he didn't expect that he was not mentally prepared at all.
The White House Economic Advisory Committee held a one-night meeting. It took 48 hours to realize that the technical direction and chain reaction of these export restrictions are not simple trade counterattacks.It is a "combination kick" for the U.S. chip manufacturing, military materials, and electric vehicle manufacturing industry.
On October 11, Trump could not sit down. He told the media that the United States would raise the existing tariffs on China by another 100%,In order to get a fair deal, the voice just broke.
The Dow Jones Index crashed more than 700 points in one day, and all of the science and technology stocks jumped. One night, the stock market value evaporated more than 7700 billion knives (approximately RMB 5.5 trillion).Many financial and financial media in the United States came to the night to urgently voice,"This is not an early warning, it is called a shock."
The market's reaction was quick. The next day, the White House changed its face, Trump came out and tweeted that everyone should not worry about China, everything will be fine. We don't want to hurt China, we just want to help China.
Finance Minister Besant also "patched" the president, Saying that a 100% tariff on China is not a fait accompli, and both the United States and China are making diplomatic efforts to prevent the conflict from escalating.
After Trump's speech, another conflict occurred on October 14. The United States has launched a “301 Survey” on China’s shipping industry.This investigation is now in effect, which is a new blow to China's large shipbuilding companies.
The Chinese responded. On the same day, the Ministry of Commerce added five subsidiaries of Hanwha Group in the United States to the sanctions list.The reason is that they help the U.S. conduct an investigation against China and cooperate to suppress China’s maritime capabilities.
This time and again, Trump was completely angry. He posted an article on the social platform "Real Social" that night, saying that China "deliberately does not buy our agricultural products." It was an “economic hostility” and he also said he would stop cooperating with China in the areas of oil and food consumption.
He also added with seriousness: “We can be completely self-sufficient and we don’t need to import any cooking oils from China.”It sounds imposing, but there are many loopholes behind it.
The United States is indeed one of the world’s leading producers of soybean oil, according to predictions, The addition of production for two consecutive years in 2025 and 2026 is estimated to reach 13.59 million tons.However, in Trump's eyes, what people often call "cooking oil" refers to waste cooking oil, commonly known as gutter oil, and is not the oil used to cook vegetables in the kitchen.
Waste oil is not food, but the main raw material for U.S. biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuels. In recent years, the United States has imported a large number of these "waste oils" from China just to implement its own environmentally friendly energy projects.
According to HK01, by 2021, the United States will turn from a net exporter of waste oil to a net importer. By 2023, imports will reach 1.36 million tons, 43% of which come from China.Without China’s supply, there would be a big gap in the U.S. “green energy map.”
When this type of waste oil is made of biodiesel, its lifecycle carbon emissions are reduced by 83 percent compared to conventional diesel, even above the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s emission standards.
However, the recycled waste oil in the United States can only meet 50% of its own shortage. If the supply is cut off rashly, it will do great harm to the United States itself. At the same time, China's waste oil recycling capacity has built a mature system, with an average daily output of more than 8,000 tons in cities and towns.
The total amount of waste oil consumed in China in 2024 will be close to 2.8 million tons.At present, biodiesel has been tested on a small-scale scale basis in Shanghai. After it is fully put into use, its annual consumption will exceed 6 million tons.
In other words, China can fully energy self-sufficiency and is expected to transform into a clean energy powerhouse.If the United States doesn't buy Chinese energy products, China can use them itself without any pressure; But if the U.S. cut off the supply chain, environmental policies, green shipping, and low-carbon fuels projects will fail.
Trump did this, instead of stabbing China, but brought American soybean farmers and energy companies into the ditch.
For the American peasants, they are neither involved in this political game nor can they stay out of it. I hoped that the President would stand up and speak up to ease relations between the two countries; I didn't expect that the President would even say on social networking sites that he would "run out of food".The only hope is broken.
At the same time, Finance Minister Bescent said, In fact, China and the United States have been communicating in a low-key manner, hoping to resume dialogue through diplomatic channels.Trump's "impulsive" approach is tantamount to kicking away the ladder of negotiations personally.
This wave was triggered by China's counterattack, but was slowly expanded by the panic moves and policy turmoil by the United States, and soy farmers suffered, stock markets went up and down and bioenergy raw materials were in trouble. The possibility of easing trade relations between China and the United States has also been taken in a more dangerous direction.
From the imposition of tariffs on China, to the outrage of the "goose oil", the threat of confession, What Trump does is not the strategic orientation and policy logic of a country’s leader.Instead, it is a temporary initiative of "heads-of-heads", which eventually eats the bitter fruit or the Americans themselves.
And on the other side of China, on the other end of the ocean, do not rush, should be used, the counter-control is counter-control. after mastering the advantages of the upstream of the industrial chain, China's attitude is more calm and clear, and clear where to hit is really painful.
reference
1. "The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued successive important announcements to implement export controls on multiple items" 2025-10-09 18:42 | Source: Red Net
2. "The United States will impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responds" 2025-10-13 18:25 | Source: China Energy News
3. "The U.S. stock market staged" Black Friday ", the Big Seven evaporated 5.5 trillion yuan, and the" Trump impact "shattered the market?" 2025-10-11 16:28 | Source: Shangguan
4. "China does not buy US soybeans, Trump engages in blackmail again" 2025-10-15 08:30 | Source: Observer.com