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In an interview on October 13th, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent not only described China's rare earth control as "confronting the whole world", but also specifically emphasized the "card" of 300,000 to 400,000 Chinese students studying in the United States.
The words are covered up, but everyone can hear the sound: if China doesn’t compromise, the hundreds of thousands of foreign students could all be driven back.
Bessent's remarks this time can be said to be exhausted American anxiety, he repeatedly stressed in interviews China's rare-earth control "large impact", claiming that the United States "will safeguard its sovereignty in many ways", but when he mentioned the number of international students, there is also an error: first say there are 800,000 American students in China, hurry to change to 800 people.
More than 30,000 Chinese students contribute real gold and silver in the United States, while American students in China have only a few hundred people, such a distinctive gap is not surprising that it has become a "coding" in the eyes of the US government.
After China announced comprehensive export controls on rare earth and critical minerals in early October, the U.S. response was unusually fierce, and the Trump administration subsequently announced that it would impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods from November 1, while also considering requiring companies that export software to China to obtain a license.
These actions seem fierce, but in fact they expose the helplessness of the United States on the issue of rare earths. You must know that rare earths are not ordinary commodities. From new energy vehicles to high-end chips, from national defense equipment to medical equipment, almost all cutting-edge fields of modern industry are inseparable from these "industrial vitamins".
The data show that about 90% of the world's rare earth refining processing capacity is in the hands of China, even if the United States restarted the California Mantenpas rare earth mine, the mines have to be transported to China to process, this dependency of the deep industrial chain can not change overnight.
In recent years, the United States has invested heavily in rebuilding the local rare earth supply chain, but the barriers to separation and purification technology, the high cost of environmental protection, and the lack of industrial workers are all insurmountable gaps. Bescent is trying to win over the so-called "* allies" such as the European Union and India to share the pressure, but in the face of huge practical interests, will these countries pay for the anxiety of the United States?
Just a month before Bescent used international students as bargaining chips, Trump was still defending his decision to approve 600,000 Chinese student visas, claiming that "not accepting their students is an insult to a country".
In just one month, international students have changed from an object that can't be insulted to a bargaining chip that can be threatened. Washington's manner of changing orders from day to day exposes the deep confusion of its China policy. When Bescent said the comparison of the number of international students in an interview, that embarrassing slip of the tongue just illustrated the problem: in panic, even the basic facts can be wrong, which shows his inner anxiety.
The U.S. has been accustomed in the past few decades to swallowing sanctions on its opponents, but when China comes up with the same quantity of countermeasures, Washington suddenly discovers that there seems to be nothing really useful in its toolbox.
Can the expulsion of foreign students solve the shortage of rare-earth land? obviously not, can the restriction on Chinese software exports give the United States access to rare-earth refining technology?
China's counter-strategy this time appears to be tolerant, the statement of the Foreign Ministry spokesman is concise and strong: "If the United States goes alone, the Chinese side will also resolutely take appropriate measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests", there is no excessive emotional leakage, there is no threat, but only the statement of a fact: you are hired, I am hired.
Behind this determination is full confidence in the advantages of its own industrial chain, rare earth control is only a part of a package of countermeasures, the suspension of procurement of U.S. agricultural products, the imposition of port charges on U.S. ships, each trick is on the United States' pain point, and also makes Washington feel the pressure.
Bessent said in an interview that “100% tariff punishment does not necessarily happen” and that “it is possible to be optimistic about the situation.”
This forward-looking shift in attitude shows precisely that the U.S. hasn’t been as low as it could have imagined in this fight, and that the U.S. hegemonic logic begins to crack when the traditional sanctions threat fails and when the opponent has equally strong counter-capacity.
This rare-earth dispute is essentially a reflection of the new and old order, in today's globalization is deeply intertwined, mutual dependence is both constraints and strength, the key is who can better grasp their advantages, China with rare-earth control proves a little: in the modern industrial chain, the party with the core technology and production capacity, only truly master the right to speak.
As for the practice of using international students as bargaining chips, it will not solve practical problems, but will only let the world see who is really lifting the table. The future belongs to those countries that are down-to-earth and have core capabilities, rather than just wielding a big stick. hegemon.
Source of information
U.S. finance minister panicked about "coding": the United States can have 300,000 Chinese students.