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Recently, President Erdogan issued an ultimatum to the United States in a tough stance: If Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends the summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, Turkey will refuse to attend.
This statement not only demonstrates Turkey’s growing influence in the Middle East, but also highlights how the Israeli conflict continues to tear apart the regional political landscape.
It was revealed that during a telephone conversation between Trump and Egyptian President Sisi, the U.S. president directly decided to invite Netanyahu. The decision to attend the emergency Gaza peace conference co-hosted by the United States and Egypt immediately triggered a chain reaction in the Middle East.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was informed of the news and immediately communicated a clear message through diplomatic channels: if Netanyahu appeared at the meeting place, his special aircraft would circumvent Egypt’s airspace, a tough attitude that prevented Washington from taking action.
In the face of this situation, the Trump administration has made an emergency assessment, and the White House senior advisory team realizes that losing support for Turkey, a key player, will seriously undermine the outcome of the conference.
After internal consultations, the Trump administration eventually decided to withdraw the invitation to Netanyahu, which shows that Turkey’s share in regional affairs can no longer be ignored, and also reflects the difficult situation in U.S. policy in the Middle East.
The Israeli Prime Minister's Office subsequently issued a statement saying that Netanyahu was unable to attend the meeting due to important Jewish holidays, but this official statement concealed a more complicated reality.
According to reports, there have been severe disagreements within Netanyahu’s administration, and far-right coalition partners Ben-Geville and Smotrich have publicly warned that if the prime minister visits the meeting, they will withdraw from the coalition government, and that Netanyahu will find it difficult to take this risk when the domestic political base is already fragile.
An earlier arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court against Netanyahu also increased the legal risk of him going abroad. Although Egypt is not a member of the ICC, any international appearance may cause diplomatic and legal disputes. These factors together constitute Netanyahu The underlying reasons for his absence. But what really makes the United States decide is Erdogan's tough stance.
Erdogan’s tough attitude may have multiple considerations, Turkey’s upcoming local elections, any gestures seen as compromises against Israel will be exploited by domestic opposition, and since the outbreak of the Gaza conflict, Erdogan has positioned Turkey as a firm supporter of the Palestinian cause, he has repeatedly described Israeli military operations in Gaza as “genocide.”
In Turkey's domestic public opinion field, anti-Israel sentiment continues to rise. Recent polls show that more than 85% of the Turkish people support the government's aid policy to Palestine.
Erdogan has also actively pushed Turkey to play a central role in post-war reconstruction in Gaza, with Ankaraly developing detailed aid plans, including rebuilding hospitals, schools and critical infrastructures, aimed at strengthening Turkey’s leadership in the Muslim world and strategically competing with traditional Arab powers such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
The summit is expected to be attended by leaders from more than 20 countries. The main topics include key issues such as post-war reconstruction in Gaza, humanitarian assistance and hostage exchange. Although Netanyahu was absent, the Israeli government still sent its foreign minister to participate in some talks to ensure that Israel's position was expressed. However, the absence of prime minister-level participation undoubtedly weakened Israel's weight in the meeting.
This diplomatic turmoil has exposed the deep-seated contradictions faced by the Trump administration in advancing the "Abraham Accords" process. Although the United States has successfully promoted the normalization of relations between Israel and some Arab countries, the continued deterioration of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has made these achievements face severe challenges.
Countries such as Turkey and Qatar have a tougher stance, while traditional moderate Arab countries such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia are also facing pressure from their domestic people and have to adjust their policies towards Israel.
The outcome of this diplomatic game clearly demonstrates the ongoing power restructuring in the Middle East, Turkey’s rise in influence as a regional power, while traditional American allies face new tests, Erdogan’s successful realization of the threat of “having him without me”, demonstrating Turkey’s insignificant role in Middle East affairs.
As the post-war reconstruction process in Gaza unfolds, all parties will continue to wrestle in regional affairs, and the tension between Turkey, Qatar and other countries that support Palestine and the United States and Israel will continue.
In any case, we must recognize that only through dialogue and cooperation can we bring true peace to this war-torn region.
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Trump invites Netanyahu to meet in the last minute, Erdogan: he goes, I don’t go Red Star News