Text | Chestnut
Source: All statements in this article have reliable sources of information contained in the article and at the end.
Since October, the "outflow effect" of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has become increasingly apparent, not only on the battlefield between the two countries, but gradually spread to the whole of Europe and the global security pattern, and NATO's strategic pressure on Russia is being carried out in a more intense and targeted manner.
On the 13th, 14 NATO countries in the Netherlands launched the very concerned "solid midday" nuclear exercises, the size of 71 aircraft, although NATO officials have been stressing before the exercises after the "conventional annual exercises", each year will be held as planned, not aimed at any particular country, but it can be seen that in the Russian conflict continues, the two sides in the battlefield in the moment, this scale of nuclear exercises, its targets have long been filled, is against Russia.
You must know that the "Firm Noon" exercise has entered a stage of regular holding since 2018. Before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, this type of exercise was more of a "symbolic deterrence", and the enthusiasm of participating countries was not particularly high. The exercise subjects are also relatively basic, mostly simple fighter formation flights, simulated nuclear strike process demonstrations, etc.
What's more noteworthy is that this exercise also invited Sweden to participate in the observation for the first time. Sweden just formally submitted its application to join NATO last year.
You know, Sweden has considerable strength in military technology and intelligence gathering, especially in the Baltic region. Sweden's military presence has a direct impact on the security of Russia's western border. Sweden's current follow-up to the "exercise" is essentially NATO's disguised expansion of the influence of the "anti-Russian camp". On the one hand, it is sending a "closeness signal" to Sweden and accelerating its integration into the NATO system; on the other hand, it is also showing Russia that NATO's "circle of friends" is constantly expanding and anti-Russian forces are also continuing to increase.
Just two days before the start of the "solid midday" exercise, Britain's action was even more "provocative" meaning. the Royal Air Force directly sent two reconnaissance aircraft, deployed to the region of NATO's eastern border near Russia, and also specially equipped with a KC-135 "co-temperature" refueling aircraft of the U.S. Air Force's 100th air refuelling coalition.
With the support of tankers, the two reconnaissance aircraft directly launched 12-hour uninterrupted border patrols. That is to say, the two aircraft circled near the Russian border for half of the 24 hours a day. Some people may think that "it's just patrol by reconnaissance planes. It's not that it's happened before. It's not a big deal." However, if you combine it with the overall situation since September, you will find that things are not that simple.
I personally think that this series of NATO operations, in fact, is playing a well-designed "combined kick": on the one hand, with the "solid midday" nuclear exercises such a massive activity, through nuclear deterrence, so that Russia does not dare to easily escalate the conflict, after all, the consequences of a nuclear war nobody can bear; on the other hand, by deploying border patrols such as reconnaissance aircraft in Eastern Europe, Russia's strategic space is gradually compromised, blocking the various paths that Russia may "shake the table".
NATO knows that Russia has a nuclear power and does not dare to engage in direct military conflict with Russia, so with nuclear exercises to “show muscles” and deter Russia; while Russia although has nuclear deterrence capabilities, but is also clear that the cost of starting a full war with NATO is too high, only to temporarily maintain restraint.
Putin's Strategic Considerations: The Real Dilemma from Avoiding War to Responding to Passive Situation
Speaking of Russia's response to NATO pressure, it has to be said of the strategic choice of President Putin. In the opinion of many who do not understand the internal circumstances, Putin is a representative of "hard and good war" and will not move to solve the problem with military means, but if from the background of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict carefully analyzed, it will be found that Putin has been "evading the war", especially in the issue of avoiding a direct conflict with NATO, the attitude is very clear.
And Putin himself has more than once made it clear in public that he does not want to go to war with NATO, and some may think that Putin's statement is "weakness", because Russia is afraid of NATO's strength.
If it were to be fought, Russia would have no advantage in resource consumption and ongoing combat capabilities, and would likely fall into the dungeon of a long-term war, which Putin was unwilling to see, and which Russia was unbearable.
But NATO obviously did not give Russia the opportunity to "evade war", but instead increased its pressure on Russia.As the news came that the United States was preparing to provide Ukraine with "Tax" cruise missiles, Russia's situation became more difficult to see how powerful the cruise missiles are, and a little attention to the military is known.
If Ukraine really obtains the "Tomahawk" cruise missiles, many key facilities such as military bases, arsenals, and transportation hubs in western Russia will have to be exposed to Ukraine's strike range, which will greatly restrict Russia's combat operations on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield. By then, Russia will not only have to deal with Ukraine's conventional attacks on the battlefield, but will also have to always guard against Ukraine's use of Tomahawk missiles to attack rear facilities, and the combat pressure will increase sharply.
I feel that Putin's current situation is like "standing at a crossroads" and being in a dilemma. Let's not counter it. NATO will engage in more and more provocations, from nuclear exercises to border reconnaissance to providing advanced weapons to Ukraine, step by step breaking through Russia's bottom line. Dissatisfaction among the domestic people will gradually accumulate and the pressure on the government will increase.
To counter, and fear to fall into NATO's carefully set "trap", once war with NATO, Russia is likely to be dragged into a long-term war, the economy will further decline, people's livelihoods problems will be more prominent, and may even affect domestic stability, putting Russia in a greater crisis.
conclusion
So from the current situation, Putin's choice to give up declaring war on NATO and focus on resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is in fact a helpless but very sensible choice. After all, for Russia, the most important thing now is to avoid "two-line warfare", if you put limited forces and resources on the confrontation with NATO, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is likely to last longer, and the situation on the battlefield will become more unfavorable.
Only by resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and stabilizing the situation at the western borders, and letting Russia breathe away from the consumption of war, can we have more energy and resources to deal with NATO’s subsequent actions.
2024-03-08: Sweden becomes the 32nd member of NATO
Global Times 2025-10-14 NATO launches "solid midday" nuclear exercise
Daily Economic News 2025-10-07 Providing "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine, Trump: Relevant decisions have been made! Putin previously said that "it will destroy Russia-US relations"
Russian satellite news agency 2025-10-13 Vice-President of the Russian Federation Committee: NATO nuclear exercises will trigger Russian and global response
2025-10-13 British reconnaissance aircraft cooperate with NATO on Russian border patrol
Qiangwutang 2025-01-06 If NATO goes to war with Russia, the outcome will be four words. Russia sets a destruction target, and Japan and South Korea will be the first to suffer