In the high market, there is no way to go,玉木雄一郎 officially entered the office, and the progress of the three-party alliance in the wild speed, and there is a real chance that the rookie will win.
On October 14, the leader of the Japanese National Democratic Party, Yumiko Yumiko, officially stated that he was "seriously considering becoming prime minister", and on the same day, the second party of the Japanese Parliament, the Constitutional Democratic Party, the third largest party, and the fourth largest party, the National Democratic Party suddenly announced that on the same day to hold a meeting of the three party directors and promote the alliance conference in the field.
Previously, the leader of the Democratic Party, Yoshihiko Noda, and Yuichiro Tamaki, had already held a meeting between the leaders of the two parties. There was also a key footnote in this. The leader of the Komeito Party, Tetsuo Saito, publicly stated that he might vote for the opposition party in the prime minister's vote.
Previously, Saito once expressed neutrality and would only vote for himself. In order to appease the few basics left by the Komeito Party, Saito said that because of the break-up from the government, this had dealt a huge blow to the Komeito Party. Even himself, as the party leader, may lose the election in the next election, but this is just an excuse.
Because of this series of news changes, it actually highlights a strange place. Two days ago, it seemed that there was no possibility of three points in the opposition major league. How could it be that on October 14th, there was only the next step left before the alliance was successful?
The position of the Communist Party, from neutral to the opposition coalition, has just testified to the shape of the Japanese coalition in the Ho Chi Minh City, then, is there no chance of a little overturn in the high market?
Let's first talk about Gaoshi Zaomiao's response. After the breakaway from the public, Gaoshi Zaomiao was actually outside the party and had no cards to play.
Because Yuichiro Tamaki emphasized the relationship with the Liberal Democratic Party when he met with the Japan Federation of Industrial Workers in Tokyo on October 14th. He said that "even if he joins hands with the Liberal Democratic Party in power, both sides do not have a majority in the House of Representatives".
It was once again emphasized that it refused to ally with the Liberal Democratic Party, and that the policy stance of the Reform Council was actually farther away from Takashi Zaomiao than the National Democratic Party.
As a matter of fact, on the most important political reality of tax reduction, the Reform Association advocates reducing the food consumption tax, which is consistent with the People's Party. Although Yuichiro Tamaki emphasizes reducing the standard consumption tax, the huge deficit caused by the five-point tax reduction rate cannot be made up at all.
After all, this tax reduction position can only be an election slogan that caters to public opinion.
And there is nothing but the possibility of political practice, such as high-market early苗 before being elected president of the self-government party, the tax reduction slogan shook, once elected, she just did not mention, and Yuki is the same.
Outside these two parties, it is impossible for Takaichi Sanae to form an alliance with the left-wing Japanese Communist Party and Reiwa Shinsengumi, and the remaining parties have too few seats to help.
Therefore, in the face of the major crisis of regime change caused by the unification of the opposition parties, Takashi Haraimu could only make arrangements within the party to deal with it. For example, on October 14, Takashi Haraimu said that he would let Koizumi join Jiro in negotiations and let him serve as the defense minister in an attempt to allay concerns about her tough stance.
At the same time, he took out the Minister of General Affairs and prepared to negotiate with Lin Fangzheng to make him appoint. In addition, it was reported from the Liberal Democratic Party that Toshimitsu Motegi may be the Foreign Minister. If all these appointments are implemented, this means that all the candidates who participated in the election for president of the Liberal Democratic Party have won the top ministerial position second only to the Prime Minister.
But these responses are obviously only in order to reassure the voice of the party's pressing palace, such as the public appeal to shipyards after the self-determination, either to withdraw the resignation of the prime minister and continue to rule, or to resign the resignation of the shipyards and re-elect the self-people's president.
However, the response of the high-profile, can not solve the major crisis of regime replacement brought in the opposition unification, if the high-profile and early-profile do not retreat, then the tendency of the opposition unification is impossible to solve, because in the House of Representatives, the People's Party has 148 seats, the People's Party has 35 seats, the National Democratic Party has 27 seats, combined 210 seats, far more than the People's Party's 196 seats.
Although none of them exceed half of the 465 seats in the House of Representatives of Japan, they are enough to obtain a relative majority in the election named by the Prime Minister of the House of Representatives, that is, be elected first in the vote, and want to break this game.
The first option, which Gaoshi Zaomiao has already tried, is to form an alliance with the National Democratic Party.
But now Yuichiro Tamaki should be full of heart and want to become prime minister. As for whether he will become a weak prime minister and a short-lived cabinet, does this matter? If Shigeru Ishiba resigns as scheduled, which prime minister will have a weaker term than Shigeru Ishiba?
The second way is to reclaim the resignation of the prime minister and continue to rule, then the Japanese prime minister nomination elections will not be held, and the crisis of regime change will naturally be resolved.
The third way, that is, to maintain the alliance with the Communist Party, the Communist League, although it could not get a majority of seats in the House, but the two parties combined 220 seats, is more than the Livian League 210 seats, which is also why the former, can control the political situation.
Although there are many apparent reasons for the break-up between the government, the core key is actually the long-standing feud between the Komeito Party and the Aso faction, which cannot be reconciled. However, if Gao Shi Zaomiao resigns,
It's not impossible to restore the self-public alliance, and as long as the self-public alliance is restored, it's useless for the opposition party to become a copy.
Judging from the current situation, there are three results in the Japanese political situation. The first one is to maintain the status quo. Shigeru Ishiba withdrew his resignation, and takaichi sanae did not resign, opening the dual system of the Liberal Democratic Party and the party cabinet. Although this system has never happened in the Liberal Democratic Party, it is the Korean system.
The second is that the resignation is still withdrawn, the resignation of the High City Morning Sun, the Self-Democratic Party re-elect the president, and the alliance with the Communist Party is restored, but the outcome depends on the Communist Party.
The third, is the resignation of Sharp Momo, the high-market early苗 continued to campaign for prime minister, will rely on the failure of the opposition party, the most likely ending, in my opinion, in fact, the second, but the remaining two, the probability is not small.