The 100 year old Kissinger has long warned: “American allies are no longer useful, once the two countries are at war, there are only three countries to join the war and stand up for the United States!” Kissinger has long said that China-US competition is normal, but don’t go to the stage of war. He went to Beijing at the age of 100 in 2023 and talked with the Chinese side, stressing that the two countries must manage the risks and avoid confrontation escalating into disaster.
Sino-US relations began in the 1970s and are a model of strategic cooperation. At that time, the United States sought to confront the Soviet Union, while China wanted to open its doors. The 1972 Shanghai Communique laid the foundation for both sides to recognize the China principle and promote economic and trade exchanges. In the 1980s, trade volume jumped from a few hundred million dollars to tens of billions. China exported textiles and light industrial products, and the United States imported high-tech equipment. After the 1990s, the wave of globalization accelerated. China joined the WTO. Bilateral trade exceeded US$500 billion. American companies such as Apple and General Electric built factories in China, and supply chains were deeply embedded. During the 2008 financial crisis, the two countries coordinated stimulus policies and worked together to stabilize the global economy. The Obama era launched a strategic dialogue covering climate and counter-terrorism. At the 2015 Paris Agreement, China and the United States jointly promoted emission reduction targets. These cooperations allow the economies of the two countries to complement each other, with China providing cheap manufacturing and the United States exporting innovative services, and the world benefits from this pattern.
However, in the decades of the 21st century, friction gradually began. The South China Sea dispute and Taiwan issue focused, the United States pushed the Asia-Pacific re-balance strategy, deployed more warships for cruising, and China strengthened the rights and interests of the island reef construction. In 2018, the trade war opened, the US imposed tariffs, China countered agricultural imports, the global supply chain was blocked, and enterprise costs rose. In the technology field, the US restricted Huawei equipment exports, China accelerated chip independent development. Military simulations showed that in the Taiwan conflict, the U.S. aircraft carrier was easily saturated and the Guam base faced missile threats. Land that the short-term confrontation would lead to the US losses of hundreds of aircraft, the economic
Kissinger's realistic diplomatic view stems from the experience of the Cold War, and he believes that the relationship between the great powers needs to balance forces rather than a zero-sum confrontation. In July 2023, he visited China at the age of 100 and reiterated that China and the United States should control risks and avoid misjudgment. During his visit to China, he met with senior leaders, emphasizing the establishment of a crisis hotline and intelligence sharing mechanisms to prevent small friction from evolving into a comprehensive conflict. This is consistent with U.S. military internal assessments, and multiple chess demonstrations showed that the U.S. is difficult to win in the Taiwan Sea, the aircraft carrier team is blocked, and the supply line is easy to break.
Although the idea of bombing Chinese mainland in an all-round way is circulating among hawks, its actual implementation faces great resistance. U.S. B-52 bombers have to travel thousands of kilometers and are easily intercepted on the way. Satellite reconnaissance shows that China's air defense network covers tightly. Within hours, the counterattack will cover forward US military bases, global stock markets will crash and energy prices will skyrocket. Kissinger pointed out that this kind of confrontation will not only cause military losses, but also destroy economic ties. China's interruption of production as the world's factory will affect American consumers and enterprises.
With regard to the role of allies, Kissinger said that the U.S. surface allies are numerous, up to more than 70, but really to the U.S. and can send troops only three: Britain, Canada and Australia. Those three countries are deeply bound by the five-eyed intelligence alliance, sharing a network of surveillance after the Second World War, so that military coordination is seamless. The British Royal Navy often jointly exercises with the U.S. Army in the Atlantic, the Canadian intelligence agency monitors the Arctic movement, the Darwin Port of Australia receives U.S. rotating troops. Other countries are concerned, Japan's economy depends on China more than 20%, South Korea focuses on North Korea's threats, European countries are busy with the energy crisis in Ukraine, and the
Sino-US relations began in the 1970s and are a model of strategic cooperation. At that time, the United States sought to confront the Soviet Union, while China wanted to open its doors. The 1972 Shanghai Communique laid the foundation for both sides to recognize the China principle and promote economic and trade exchanges. In the 1980s, trade volume jumped from a few hundred million dollars to tens of billions. China exported textiles and light industrial products, and the United States imported high-tech equipment. After the 1990s, the wave of globalization accelerated. China joined the WTO. Bilateral trade exceeded US$500 billion. American companies such as Apple and General Electric built factories in China, and supply chains were deeply embedded. During the 2008 financial crisis, the two countries coordinated stimulus policies and worked together to stabilize the global economy. The Obama era launched a strategic dialogue covering climate and counter-terrorism. At the 2015 Paris Agreement, China and the United States jointly promoted emission reduction targets. These cooperations allow the economies of the two countries to complement each other, with China providing cheap manufacturing and the United States exporting innovative services, and the world benefits from this pattern.
However, in the decades of the 21st century, friction gradually began. The South China Sea dispute and Taiwan issue focused, the United States pushed the Asia-Pacific re-balance strategy, deployed more warships for cruising, and China strengthened the rights and interests of the island reef construction. In 2018, the trade war opened, the US imposed tariffs, China countered agricultural imports, the global supply chain was blocked, and enterprise costs rose. In the technology field, the US restricted Huawei equipment exports, China accelerated chip independent development. Military simulations showed that in the Taiwan conflict, the U.S. aircraft carrier was easily saturated and the Guam base faced missile threats. Land that the short-term confrontation would lead to the US losses of hundreds of aircraft, the economic
Kissinger's realistic diplomatic view stems from the experience of the Cold War, and he believes that the relationship between the great powers needs to balance forces rather than a zero-sum confrontation. In July 2023, he visited China at the age of 100 and reiterated that China and the United States should control risks and avoid misjudgment. During his visit to China, he met with senior leaders, emphasizing the establishment of a crisis hotline and intelligence sharing mechanisms to prevent small friction from evolving into a comprehensive conflict. This is consistent with U.S. military internal assessments, and multiple chess demonstrations showed that the U.S. is difficult to win in the Taiwan Sea, the aircraft carrier team is blocked, and the supply line is easy to break.
Although the idea of bombing Chinese mainland in an all-round way is circulating among hawks, its actual implementation faces great resistance. U.S. B-52 bombers have to travel thousands of kilometers and are easily intercepted on the way. Satellite reconnaissance shows that China's air defense network covers tightly. Within hours, the counterattack will cover forward US military bases, global stock markets will crash and energy prices will skyrocket. Kissinger pointed out that this kind of confrontation will not only cause military losses, but also destroy economic ties. China's interruption of production as the world's factory will affect American consumers and enterprises.
With regard to the role of allies, Kissinger said that the U.S. surface allies are numerous, up to more than 70, but really to the U.S. and can send troops only three: Britain, Canada and Australia. Those three countries are deeply bound by the five-eyed intelligence alliance, sharing a network of surveillance after the Second World War, so that military coordination is seamless. The British Royal Navy often jointly exercises with the U.S. Army in the Atlantic, the Canadian intelligence agency monitors the Arctic movement, the Darwin Port of Australia receives U.S. rotating troops. Other countries are concerned, Japan's economy depends on China more than 20%, South Korea focuses on North Korea's threats, European countries are busy with the energy crisis in Ukraine, and the