Last month, a storm triggered by a shortage of hydroelectricity swept Madagascar, with thousands of young people out on the streets, their anger burning not only on the daily life of frequent power outages, but also on the country’s deep systemic crisis.
(Youth protests sparked by a shortage of hydroelectricity sparked a systemic humanitarian crisis in Madagascar)
1. The hydropower crisis has become the "last straw"
Imagine three-quarters of people living below the poverty line in a country of 30 million people, most of whom are young people under 20 years of age.They find it difficult to secure even basic water access every day, and these seemingly usual infrastructure problems are the last rush to crush camels in this island country.
The 34-year-old president, a young leader once hopeful, is now facing the most severe test of his political career. In 2018 he came to power with a promise to change and succeeded in re-election in 2023, but now it seems he has failed to fulfill the promise of the year. Dr. Freeman, an expert at the University College of London, pointed out that the advertising-born president may be too young and lack the experience and ability to govern a country.
What's even more worrying is that there is a deeper problem hidden behind this crisis: rampant corruption has plunged this country, which relies on the export of vanilla, nickel, cobalt and other resources, into a "resource curse". Wealth is grabbed by a few people, while most young people have to struggle to survive in the poverty rate of as high as 75%.
(People question the ability of Rajolina to rule)
When the rulers spoke in the luxurious official mansions, the average people were fighting for the most basic right to survive.This protest has gone beyond the mere demand for hydroelectricity, and it is evolving into a comprehensive questioning of the existing system.
La Jolina, betrayed by the most trusted forces
Just as the wave of protests intensified, a dramatic downturn turned the whole situation. On October 11, the special forces CAPSAT, which had once pushed La Jolina to the throne of power, suddenly turned their guns and stood together with the protesters. This shift was like a heavy kick, directly crushing La Jolina's power base.
Let’s take the time back to 2009, when Lagolina was still a young opposition leader, and it was with the support of Capsat that he managed to take control of the army and the capital and eventually ascend to the presidential throne.
(CAPSAT troops who helped La Jolina take power joined the demonstration in October)
The Special Forces, like his private guard, played a key role in the 2018 and 2023 elections, but politics is so ironic that the sword that helped him take power now stands on his own neck.
In his video speech before the escape of the Emperor, Lacollina accused “a group of soldiers and politicians planned to murder me” of being both sad and ironic. To know, he was relying on a military-backed table, but now betrayed by his most trusted forces.
3. In Africa, there are many "Madagascar"
The African Union’s Peace and Security Council has called for an urgent meeting, but what appears to have been released in the aftermath of the meeting, in reality, hides the possibility of both condemning violence and calling for political dialogue; calling for the military to abide by its duty and emphasizing the need to involve young people in decision-making.
(Youth movements and military alliances could trigger regional security chain reactions)
What's even more worrying is that this model is likely to have a demonstration effect in neighboring countries. The African continent has too many similar predicaments: a swelling young population, poor infrastructure and serious corruption. Today's chaos in Madagascar is likely to become a preview of other countries tomorrow. The AU's move to urgently appoint special envoys and send high-level delegations is precisely to prevent this crisis from spreading outward.
But the root cause of the problem always lies in: Why has this country, which relies on exports of vanilla, nickel and cobalt, been unable to transform natural resources into people's well-being?
This systemic failure can never be solved by a simple regime change.The “all government-all society” approach advocated by the African Union is ideal, but whether an inclusive dialogue can be achieved in a moment of fierce power play is still a huge question.