Speaking of the close confrontation between India and Pakistan in May this year, the matter has not completely faded out of people's attention. On the surface, the two sides have stopped fire, and everyone patted their chests and said that they had not suffered a loss. However, on closer consideration, the water is deep here. In the United States, the Trump administration jumped out and said it was a master of mediation and helped hold the fight. In fact, the United States has benefited a lot from the beginning to the end of this conflict and has become the biggest beneficiary in the real world. Conversely, there is more than one loser, but at least three have to be counted: Russia, India and France.
On April 22, a group of militants attacked Pakhargam in the Kashmir region, killing 25 Indians and one Nepalese. The Indian government said it was killed by people on the other side of Pakistan, although Pakistan denied. As a result, India did not dry on the morning of May 7, the air force moved out and bombed a few good places in Pakistan and control of Kashmir, saying it was aimed at terrorist camps.
Of course, Pakistan refused to accept it and fought back the next day. The Air Force went up and killed several Indian fighter planes. The whole conflict lasted for four days, with artillery fire booming and smoke billowing from the border. On May 10, the two sides finally agreed to a ceasefire, soldiers withdrew and prisoners exchanged. But who is in charge of this ceasefire? Americans say that they were busy to get it done.
Trump came to power shortly after he met with the matter. His vice president Wans just went to India at the end of April and talked about trade exemption tariffs. When the conflict broke out, the U.S. State Department and the White House were busy, and Secretary of State Rubio called on both sides, urging calm. Trump later posted on social media, saying the U.S. helped a lot, and the ceasefire was his merit. Pakistan Prime Minister Sharif also agreed, saying Trump played a key role, and said to nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize. On the Indian side, the foreign minister is not accountable, saying that the ceasefire was spoken by the military of the two countries, and the U.S. is nothing.
Why is the U.S. the biggest winner? First of all, the U.S. has always wanted to mess up in Asia, especially around China. In India and Pakistan, the economic corridor is messed up. That corridor is the focus of China and Pakistan cooperation, connecting from the port of Pakistan to western China, helping China to Iran and the Middle East. The conflict comes, the project stopped, workers withdrew, equipment thrown there no matter what.
In the Middle East, the United States is having trouble with Iran and the Houthi armed forces. Now that Iran lacks the backing of China, the pressure on the United States is much less. Secondly, this matter helps the United States divide Sino-Russian relations. Russia has strong relations with India and sells arms happily, but Pakistan is China's best friend. In the conflict, Russia was caught in the middle and in a dilemma. If you support India, you will offend China; if you support Pakistan, you will lose the Indian market; if you are neutral, India will not be happy. As a result, Russia was left out there, and the United States looked happy.
Moreover, the domestic affairs of the United States are also small. Trump has just come to power, the national bonds are like mountains, the Democrats are looking for puddles every day. South Asia is troubled, capital is panicked, from Asia runs back to the United States to buy bonds, the stock market is a bit stable. This is in line with the tariff war of Trump, just to ease the internal pressure. Think, the United States has always liked the world's mess, can eat and drink enough. This conflict is short but messy enough, the purpose of the United States is basically achieved. In diplomacy, the United States has also washed the face, Pakistan thanked it, and the international community also feels that the United States has a responsibility. Even if India does not recognize, the American propaganda machine turns, who car
Of course, the United States has not paid without it. During the mediation process, they offended some people, but overall, the gains outweighed the losses. In contrast, the losers are miserable. Let's talk about Russia first. This time they really fell. On May 5, Putin called Modi, saying that he condemned the attack and supported India in fighting terrorism.
But the next day, India took action. When the outside world looked at it, it felt that Putin was giving India a green light. With this interpretation by Pakistan and the international media, Russia's image will be smashed. Originally, Russia had just taken a breath from Ukraine, ceased fire, recovered some territory, and was trying to digest the fruits of victory. As a result, as soon as this incident happened, he was labeled as a "fire archer" again. Putin wants to maintain a balance and doesn't want to excessively stimulate the United States, but now, he is morally losing and his international status is damaged. Russia needs the Indian market to sell weapons, but it can't do without China's short-term support. Now, it's a dilemma, and the relationship has to be repaired.
India, as for India, has lost the future this time. Originally, the Modi government wanted to make a quick decision and teach Pakistan a lesson. But Pakistan has a nuclear bomb, and India dare not play big ones. In a war of attrition, the Indian economy can't bear it. Pakistan is backed by the Islamic world, Saudi Arabia has money, and China has weapons. What about India? The United States is busy with its own business, Russia can't take care of it, and Europe is dragged down by the tariff war and Ukraine. As a result, the Indian fighter plane was shot down, and Modi's dream of being a big country took a slap in the face.
The domestic public opinion boils up, the parliament continues to question, the economy is also injured. The air force loses the aircraft, the procurement plan must be adjusted. The ambition of the great powers is defeated, and the deterrence in South Asia has also been defeated. India wants to stand up against the United States against China, but this makes it clear that the United States does not necessarily rely on the backdrop.
France also suffered this time, which was purely a business loss. India used French Rafales, and Pakistan claimed to have shot down at least three. As soon as the wreckage was exposed, French defense companies were dumbfounded. The Rafale sold well, but now its performance is being questioned, and potential buyers are hesitant. Cancellations came one after another, and France had to meet to discuss improvements. France originally wanted to share a piece of arms sales in the Middle East and Asia, but now its reputation is bad. France lost cleanly because the fighters showed their timidity in actual combat.
In addition to these three great losers, China? here must be said. China clearly supported Pakistan, filled the arms gap. But the conflict broke the economic corridor, aid Iran’s road blocked. China laughed and couldn’t laugh out, analyze, and have to observe the follow-up. Pakistan won a little face, the air force performed well, with the Chinese J-10 fighter success. But overall, the Pakistani economy was weak, after the conflict more dependent on the IMF bailout. the ceasefire was stopped, the border tension could not fire, the air defense system must be upgraded, more money to spend.
Looking at the whole incident, there is no real winner in the India-Pakistan conflict, and civilians are the biggest victims. Border villagers were evacuated, the wounded were sent to hospitals, and the economic chain was broken. The international community intervened and the United Nations called for restraint, but no one solved the root issue-the Kashmir dispute. The nuclear shadow has always been there, and neither side can afford all-out war. The United States took the opportunity to stabilize the situation in the Middle East, Russia had to repair its image, India had to rethink its strategy, and France saved its business.
In the future, South Asia's stability must also be seen in the game of the great powers. Trade flows have changed, funds have gone to the United States, and the global pattern has been fine-tuned. India has to build, Pakistan has to upgrade air defense, India has to strengthen intelligence. Mediation will continue, U.S. influence has consolidated, the Middle East situation has stabilized a little. Russia adjusts diplomacy, France pushes fighter jets up.
To put it back, this conflict exposed a lot of things. The interstate game, never a simple stop-and-stop. The United States plays one stone more bird, others have to pick up. Russia had wanted to digest the Ukrainian achievements lowly, and the result was dragged down the water. India is ambitious, realistic. France is purely lying gun, and the arms sale is at high risk.
As for Pakistan, the Air Force is bright, but the country's foundation is weak, and it wins face and loses face. Internationally, the issue of terror has been brought to the table again, and Pakistan has to face pressure. Following the ceasefire, a commission of inquiry was set up to review intelligence failures. Drones are used well, cyber attacks are coming, and power communications have been interrupted. The whole process exposed the performance of weapons, Chinese hardware was eye-catching, and Western equipment was criticized.
In general, this wave of operations in the United States is not profitable. The winner is it, the losers are at least three, each has a pain point. Russian image loss, Indian dream broken, French business yellow. The great powers play the game, the people underneath are guilty.