Sino-Russian relations have become closer in recent years, and economic cooperation is in full swing, especially the automobile trade. It was originally a good time for Chinese automobile companies to show their muscles in the Russian market. But who would have thought that in the second half of 2025, Russia would suddenly attack some Chinese trucks, not only banning sales and recalling them, but also increasing tax and fee policies layer by layer.

This is the case, everyone has to think about, cooperation and iron, also have to leave a little behind. Russia this game, obviously is a security standard, secretly guarding its own industry, Chinese enterprises have to think about how to break up.

Arihanov comes to power, Russia's industrial policy turns to support

The Russian Minister of Industry and Trade Anton Alihanov was born in 1986 in Sukhumi, which was still part of the Soviet Socialist Republic of Abkhazia.

In the early years of his family conditions, his parents were both civil servants, and he had been in contact with administrative affairs since his childhood.In 2004 he studied at the All-Russian National School of Taxation, studied finance, graduated in 2008 and studied law at Moscow State University, and graduated in 2010 with a degree in law.

In his early days, he worked as a clerk in the Russian Ministry of Justice, handling trivial tasks such as document verification and data. In 2012, he was transferred to the Kaliningrad regional government as assistant to the deputy minister. At that time, he was only 26 years old and began to engage in trade coordination.

The enclave of Kaliningrad is sandwiched between the European Union and is under great pressure from sanctions. Arihanov worked there for several years and was promoted to deputy director of the Kaliningrad Branch of the Federal Customs Service in 2015, in charge of border trade supervision.

He was appointed acting governor of Kaliningrad in September 2016, when Governor Yevgeny Zinchev abruptly resigned, and he took over at the age of 30. In October 2017, he was officially elected governor and became the youngest regional leader in Russia. During his tenure, he promoted local economic transformation, focused on agricultural manufacturing industries, responded to EU sanctions, and promoted parallel import channels.

During COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, he coordinated isolation and medical resources, and then engaged in digitalization and infrastructure, and the localized production of auto parts was also put on the agenda. In 2022, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will escalate and sanctions will become more severe. He is responsible for border logistics coordination to ensure that the supply chain does not collapse.

In May 2024, Alikhanov was transferred to the Central Committee as Minister of Industry and Trade. That was approved by the State Duma, succeeding predecessor Denis Manturov. After he took office, he focused on industrial protection, especially in the automotive field.

The Russian automotive industry was weak, after the Western car companies evacuated, Chinese brands filled the vacuum, market share from less than 10% in 2022 to 60% at the end of 2024.Aryhanov was not dry, he publicly said that some imported vehicles had serious defects and could not go on the road.In the first half of 2025, he pushed for certification review to strengthen, tax adjustments also followed.

On August 1, the vehicle recycling tax rose again, the passenger car coefficient increased by 1.7 to 3.7 times, and the truck coefficient also increased by 1.7 times. This person has strong policy enforcement capabilities. He also hosted an industrial forum in September 2025, emphasizing the improvement of local production capacity. To put it bluntly, on behalf of Russia, he wants to revive his own auto market. Chinese companies are advancing too hard and sharing too much of the cake, so they have to beat it.

In those years in Kaliningrad, he coordinated Sino-Russian logistics and personally felt the importance of Chinese supply. But after taking the upper position, the position changed, and protecting the market gave priority. On July 30, 2025, the Federal Bureau of Technical Supervision and Metrology issued a ban on the import and sale of 12 trucks including Dongfeng DFH4180, Foton BJ4189, Jiefang CA4250 and CA4180, Shandeka ZZHS, and Foton M4L.

The reasons are low braking efficiency, excessive noise, weak protection, and lack of emergency call devices. These vehicles have a market share of more than 25% in Russia. Once the ban was issued, it directly affected thousands of sold vehicles and had to be recalled and rectified. Arihanov bluntly stated in the media that these defects threaten security and the certificate must be revoked.

His policy is not only to ban sales, but also to transfer taxes back from August 2023, increase them by another 70% to 85% in October 2024, and plan to increase them by 10% to 20% every year until 2030. Central Asia's transshipment channels will pay taxes starting from April 2025, and their share will drop from 30% to less than 2%. This combination of punches is obviously aimed at China cars. Russia's local trucks will sell less than 30,000 vehicles in the first half of 2025, which is in urgent need of a breather.

After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Western car companies ran out and the Russian car market collapsed. In 2025, total sales will be 600,000 vehicles, down 29% year-on-year. China cars account for 55%, but consumers report many safety and durability issues, especially the low temperatures in Siberia, and engine insulation cannot keep up.

Alikhanov grabbed these points, on the surface compliance, actual escort domestic enterprises such as GAZ. policy landed quickly, strictly enforced, in September 2025, he inspected the Ural factory, to promote the expansion of production capacity. Russia this step was calculated, with the safety of nominal limit competition, Chinese enterprises to recognize, cooperation to cooperate, market rules to be observed.

The honeymoon of Chinese cars in Russia changes tone, and the tax barriers behind the ban

China-Russia car trade in these years, was originally the tip of the wind. Chinese cars from 2022 to Russia, in 2023 exported more than 500,000 units, in 2024 the city accounted for 60%. why so strong? Western brands evacuation, Russia car shortage, China low-cost fuel cars and electric vehicles are just subsidized. Long Wall, Cherry, Gili these brands, sold off, parallel import channels exploded, through Central Asia, avoid part of the tariffs.

But in 2025, the wind shifted, exports crashed. 1 to May, passenger car exports 15.36 million, compared with 58.75%. in the first eight months, the total amount exceeded $ 4 billion, but the ratio was big, in August, passenger car exports amounted to 7.964 billion, up 28.2%, and trucks fell 68.2% to 34.5 million dollars. The monthly exports fell from 100,000 units last year to more than 50,000 units, and in April was lower to 30,000 units.

The ban is a spark, but the tax is the big one. From January 2025, the import tariffs will be increased by 20% to 38%, the tax price of cars below 1.2 million rubles will be increased by 1169 rubles. The tax on recycling will be adjusted from August 1, the tax on trucks will be heavy, the consumer loan interest rate will be 18%, the car price will be high.

Market feedback, China car safety and durability approved, Siberia zero down 40 degrees, thin warming layer, battery freezing difficult to start. Noise and protection also become a crash point, Russian inspection is strict, Shandeka in February on the suspension of one model approval, to recall the repair. July ban covered four brands 12 items, brake system failure, noise excess these issues, Russian data support, the Federal Bureau after inspection direct order.

This is not only a technical barrier, but also obvious policy leverage. If Russia wants to localize production, Chinese companies have to build factories and joint ventures. OTTC certification and GLONASS positioning are mandatory, and parallel imports change from convenience to trouble. In the first half of 2025, in the top ten miles of Chinese car exports, SUVs such as Haval H9 and Tank 300 are okay, but trucks are hit hard. Russian local car companies took the opportunity to recover their blood. GAZ sales were stable and government subsidies were large.

Chinese enterprises are not unprepared, there is a long-term localization plan, the Great Wall is built in Toula, Chery is assembled in Moscow. It can be forbidden to come in a hurry, the rectification cycle is long, it can be repaired within two months to sell again. Although the market share is 55%, but the total sales decrease, means the absolute amount of water. Russia this hand, protecting the home is right, but Chinese car companies have to reflect, rapid expansion ignore local standards, hidden danger buried.

To be honest, Sino-Russian trade should be mutually beneficial, China cars help Russia fill in the blanks, and the Russian market provides training for China. But when the ban came out, the problem was exposed. In September 2025, the dialogue between Russia and the United States eased, BMW Volkswagen returned, dealers cleared inventory, and competition intensified.

Chinese brands need to be optimized. For low-temperature upgrades of thermal insulation and batteries, exhibition hall promotions and prices are promoted. Exports have shifted to the Middle East and South America, where electric vehicles have a great advantage. Saudi orders have increased by 30% and Brazil's share has increased by 15%. Don't go all-in in the Russian market, eggs are divided into baskets. Although the ban hurts, it also forces escalation, which is a test in the long run.

The game in the auto market escalates, China's export diversification breaks through

The game of chess in the Russian automobile market is becoming more and more complicated. In 2025, although Chinese cars will account for the majority, the downward trend is obvious. From January to August, 273,000 vehicles were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 55.9%. The annual estimate is 500,000 units, which is far from last year. The ban targets trucks, but ripples to the overall series.

These heavy-duty trucks, originally the main force of Russian logistics, recall hundreds after prohibition, logistics chain broke, the stock of distributors topped. Russian consumers turn to domestic or Iranian cars, although the price is high, but compliance. The government also pushed the "flot TCO" concept, has a low cost, encouraging enterprises to buy local cars. Chinese brands have to come from scratch, certify localization, build a joint venture.

Diversification is the way to go. Chinese car companies have already deployed in the Middle East, electric vehicles have a stable battery life, and Saudi Arabia has good test drive feedback. South American mining areas have rough road conditions and strong suspension adaptability, and Brazilian exports have increased. Southeast Asia is hot, air conditioning is efficient, and the assembly line in Thailand is busy. In the second half of 2025, orders in these markets will be filled, the cost of electric vehicles will be low, and the global share will be stable.

In Russia, partial access was achieved after the rectification, and the first batch of facelifted trucks passed the customs in October. However, the recycling tax continues to rise, and the budget for 2026 is 1.65 trillion rubles, an increase of 46.7%. The local share rebounded, and Alikhanov inspected the factory to promote solder joint production capacity. Chinese companies stabilize, electric steering, and Harbin tests frost resistance.

In international trade, it is common for Russia to protect the market. The EU has increased taxes on electric vehicles in China and restricted the sale of chips in the United States. Good relationship does not mean no bottom line. China has to respond with strength. Although the ban is limited to trucks, there is still room for passenger cars. Geely acquired Volvo technology and deepened the joint venture.

Russia's industry is weak and relies on imports. Alikhanov's policy is effective in the short term, but depends on innovation in the long term. Chinese car companies learn from their mistakes and gain wisdom, benchmark against standards, and upgrade quality. The market competition is fierce, the West returns, and both Russia and China have to fight. In the future, there is a lot of room for Sino-Russian cooperation, but it is normal to balance interests and keep an eye out.

Russia wants technology transfer, and China pushes local property. From honeymoon to normal, the auto market tests endurance. China's exports do not fail, and its global layout is wide. Russia is limited to one step, while China takes ten steps. The cake is big, and everyone shares it. The key depends on who has a steady hand.