The Russia-Ukraine conflict has been raging for more than three years now. Since Russia's full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, both sides have paid a heavy price. In Ukraine, cities were bombed, the economy collapsed, people were displaced, and the army suffered heavy casualties. The same is true for Russia. International sanctions are overwhelmed, exports are blocked, domestic prices are soaring, and its military is consumed heavily on the battlefield.
Under this deadlock, Russia threw out an olive branch in May this year and offered to negotiate directly with Ukraine without preconditions. This move made people feel that Russia finally let go and showed its utmost sincerity to ease the situation. The key point is that this negotiation bypassed the United States and started directly in Istanbul, Turkey, which gave Ukraine the opportunity to control the pace by itself without always looking at Washington's face.
Recalling the origins of the conflict, Russia has always claimed to protect the eastern pro-Russian region and ensure its own security, but the international community unanimously condemned after the invasion, leading to Russia's isolation. Ukrainian President Zelensky turned from actors to politicians, emphasizing anti-corruption and pro-Western lines after taking office, but after the outbreak of the war, he led the resistance, fighting for a lot of help.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has long been in power and pursued tough diplomacy. This invasion has put him under unprecedented pressure. Trump was re-elected president of the United States in 2024. After taking office on January 20, 2025, he criticized his predecessor for providing too much aid to Ukraine and instead pushed for a quick truce. He talked to Putin and tried to bring the relationship between the United States and Russia closer, but Russia didn't fully buy it.
When European leaders met in Kiev on May 10 and urged Russia to agree to a 30-day unconditional ceasefire, Putin responded the next day, not accepting the ceasefire, but proposing to talk directly with Ukraine in Istanbul on May 15. This can be regarded as a strategic adjustment. Russia does not want the ceasefire to give Ukraine a breathing space, but is willing to sit down and talk. The focus is on eliminating the root causes of the conflict and achieving lasting peace.
Specifically, Russia's proposal is based on earlier negotiation drafts, such as Ukraine maintaining permanent neutrality and limiting the size of its military in exchange for international security guarantees, including commitments from permanent members of the UN Security Council. Putin stressed that the negotiations are not for a short pause, but to solve fundamental problems, such as Ukraine's non-membership of NATO and recognition of Russia's control over Crimea and parts of the east.
The Russian delegation was led by Vladimir Medinsky, an experienced assistant to Putin. On the Ukrainian side, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba participated. As the host, Turkey provides a neutral platform, and President Erdogan actively mediates because Turkey has interests in the Black Sea region and wants to be a mediator. On May 15, the first round of negotiations was launched, and Russia submitted documents listing requirements, such as Ukraine's demilitarization and energy supply terms. Ukraine responded by insisting on restoring the 1991 border and compensation needs, but agreed to initial contacts. This step is a turning point for Ukraine, because Russia has an advantage on the battlefield, and Ukraine will suffer even greater losses if it continues to fight.
Russia has always been accused of being dishonest because of the last three years, the negotiations have been interrupted several times, such as the 2022 Turkey talks agreement because of the Bush incident collapsed. But this time, Putin personally announced, specified the date and place, without additional conditions, although refused a ceasefire, but at least kicked the ball to Ukraine, let the international community see Russia’s “peaceful will.”
This has eased international pressure on Russia. Sanctions have caused Russia's economy to decline. GDP is expected to grow negatively in 2025, affecting people's lives. Putin believes that Russia has sufficient resources to drag it out, but also knows that a long-term war will benefit no one. Avoiding the United States is the key. Before Trump came to power, the United States had been leading aid. The Biden era sent tens of billions of weapons, but after Trump took office, he reduced support and turned to pressure the two sides to negotiate peace.
The United States wants to solve Russia and Ukraine and close relations with Russia, and may join hands to deal with other opponents. However, for Ukraine, the United States' "small calculations" are sometimes unreliable, supporting and hesitating at times. Talk directly, so that Ukraine can avoid this uncertainty and decide its own destiny.
On May 16, after the first round, the two sides exchanged 200 prisoners, which was a practical progress and showed that negotiations were fruitful. On June 2, Russia proposed a second round at the same place, continuing to exchange seriously wounded and young prisoners, the total number of which reached a thousand. Medinsky called Umerov, coordinated the date, and Ukraine provided written proposals, including a ceasefire path and confidence measures. But the negotiations failed so well, Russia insisted on not a complete ceasefire, and Ukraine demanded the first withdrawal of troops.
On June 20, in the third round, the focus turned to food corridors and energy. Russia adjusted its requirements, but Ukraine pushed back the issue of compensation. Trump met with Zelensky in Florida on July 1 and suggested that Ukraine make concessions, but did not directly intervene. On August 1, Zelensky publicly supported leadership dialogue, but emphasized the need for Russia to cooperate. The Russian army did not stop, advancing in Kharkiv, destroying infrastructure, and Ukraine retaliated and destroyed tanks.
By August 15th, when Putin inspected the factory, he mentioned progress, but warned to step up action if there was no consensus. On September 28, the vice president of the United States criticized Russia for refusing the tripartite invitation, which stalled the negotiations. On October 1, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that it would talk with the United States about nuclear arms control, but rejected Ukraine's new conditions.
On October 6, Zelensky said that Ukraine decided on its own to strike targets and no longer consult with the United States. On October 10, Putin stressed that Russia could continue to fight. In the conflict, the ruins of Ukrainian cities accumulated, residents cleaned the rubble, and the Russian border was also blown up. Trump pushed for US-Russia normalization, but the war had not ended.
In general, this round of direct negotiations brings a line of hope to Ukraine, because Russia's concessions are limited, but at least opened the door. In the past, the United States dominated everything, Ukraine is like a gamble, now open, can play directly with Russia. Turkey and other countries are brokering, providing a platform to avoid interference by major powers.
Russia's sincerity is reflected in actions, such as exchanging prisoners and proposing dates, without delay as before. Of course, Putin's invasion caused huge damage, which cannot be whitewashed, and international courts are still investigating war crimes. But in reality, negotiations are the only way out. Ukraine's economy has collapsed and its army has been exhausted. Continuing to fight may lose more territory. Russia is also suffering from sanctions, with limited exports of oil and natural gas and limited allies.
Putin is 73 years old, has long held power, faced with domestic discontent and international isolation, and needs achievements. Zelensky is 47 years old, leads resistance for three years, the popular support rate has fallen, and needs peace to rebuild. Trump is 79, priority to the United States after taking office, reduce aid, force both sides to talk.
In the long run, if negotiations succeed, Ukraine can retain sovereignty and Russia withdraws parts of the region in exchange for neutrality guarantees. This has an impact on the global pattern, the Black Sea is stable, food exports are restored, energy prices fall. Europe can relax and reduce refugee pressure. The United States can focus on the country. But there is a risk that Russia may use negotiations to delay time and save power. Ukraine needs to be vigilant and not give too much concessions. The international community should push, such as UN supervision.
Overall, Russia’s proposal to let Ukraine see the dawn of salvation, to speak directly around the United States, is the most sincere expression. The cost of the war is too high, both sides should seize the opportunity. Putin’s actions, although calculated, opened the door to negotiations. Zelensky needs weighting, and Trump’s role is more like a spectator. Hopefully this round of talks will bring a turning point and not let the people be blamed.