Last week, China announced a new rule on rare earth, and the United States first jumped out with a tough gesture, but in a few days it was softened.
And what about the EU? After five days of silence, it was not until October 14th that the showdown finally showed its cards. It was clear that it wanted to side with the United States, and it also wanted to pull the G7 together to put pressure on China, shouting to "show strong strength".
But have you found an interesting point? The "strength" in the EU's mouth seems to be tied to the life of its own semiconductor industry.
Rare land new rules come out, the European Union is in trouble
On the 9th, China's Ministry of Commerce issued a new regulation: to implement export controls on rare earth-related items and technologies containing Chinese ingredients. This matter is neither big nor small, but as soon as the news came out, it immediately aroused strong repercussions in Europe and America.
Although rare earths have no sense of existence, they are real "industrial vitamins". Everything from missile radars to new energy vehicles depends on them.
How dependent is the EU on rare earths? The report of the European Central Bank directly named: China is the source of more than 70% of rare earth imports in the euro zone. Even if they bypass China and buy from elsewhere, suppliers can't do without Chinese raw materials.
In one word, Europe wants to “get rid of dependence,” it’s easy to say, it’s hard to do.
Originally, the EU's rare-earth policy to China has long been mindful of mustard, but this time the silence is actually "tinnitus", five days later, the EU's trade commissioner Shevchenko finally opened the speech.
He not only expressed, but directly announced that the EU would join the G7 countries to "take a strong response" to China, and has agreed with U.S. Commerce Secretary Raymond Duda, preparing for a video conference to coordinate action.
Simply put, it is the European Union to fight alongside the United States and launch a “collective protest.”
Rather than being a “stack,” rather than a “sign”, the EU on the one hand showed a gesture: we are not vegetarian; on the other hand, we also left behind the way – Shevchovich spoke, and said he hoped to have video talks with Chinese trade officials to assess the situation first.
It's a bit like a "half-sliding door": one foot steps into the trench, and the other foot is still on the edge of the negotiating table.
The differences within the EU are not small.
The rotating chairmanship of Denmark’s Foreign Minister, Rasmussen, was radical and called for a “hard response,” but Polish officials said it was true that “arming” rare lands was the worst situation, a dependence that can’t get rid of overnight.
At this point, it is not difficult to understand the reaction of the European Union: they do not know where China's bottom is, but they can not make the United States feel like they are "riding the wall."
Therefore, this "tough and hesitant" response is actually the EU's consistent operating style-it needs to stand on the sidelines but does not want to bear all the consequences.
The United States is putting pressure, is it to keep warm or to be tied to a chariot?
This time, the EU calls the United States to "respond strongly" to China. It sounds like "brothers are united," but on closer inspection, it is more of a "group to warm up."
In the day after the Chinese side announced countermeasures, Trump threatened to impose high tariffs on China, as a result of which the markets immediately shook, and the three major US stock indices continued to fall.
The U.S. Department of Commerce quickly lowered the rate, saying that it hoped to "maintain communication" with the Chinese side, which shows that in this case, the U.S. also knows that the cost of "hardcore" is too high.
The EU at this time chose to "work side by side", appears to be a strategic synergy, and in fact there is a bit of "passive standing". after all, in the eyes of the EU, the United States has always been the "main force", and the EU itself is more like "following".
But the problem is that if you follow too closely, it is often not the "big brother" who gets hurt, but the "sidekick".
This can be seen from ASML, a Dutch lithography giant that is one of Europe's technology brands and has recently been preparing for a potential disruption of the rare earth chain.
They know that once the Chinese side really shakes the neck, the first one to be affected is not the United States, but those European companies that rely heavily on Chinese raw materials.
Moreover, the G7 is not monolithic. Japan has always been more cautious about rare earths. Canada and Italy are also more concerned about their own economic recovery and are not so active in "taking sides."
Once the G7 meetings disagree, the EU's "high-tone statement" could turn into "embarging self-inflammation".
But the EU is not without abacus. They know that China's new regulations emphasize "legal compliance" and do not target specific countries. They only strengthen supervision of dual-use items, which is an international practice.
If it can be negotiated for “immunities” or “exceptions”, the EU can both maintain its gesture and continue to eat rare earth.
Therefore, this "showdown" with China is actually more like a "release signal", not to go to war, but to let the Chinese side know that we are not easy to mess with, but we are also willing to talk.
What the EU wants is "reasonable and restrained", but the problem is that in the context of the US-China game, this "middleman" role is becoming increasingly difficult to play.
China is confident enough, but the EU can hardly take the initiative
China's move against rare earths this time is actually not a "surprise attack", but a prepared one. The announcement clearly states: the new regulations are to safeguard national security, fulfill international non-proliferation obligations, and are in compliance with laws and regulations. Not targeted at specific countries. This kind of expression not only has principles, but also gives the other party a way out.
But behind China's "soft tone", there is actually "hard power" hidden. China has long been the absolute main force in the global supply of rare earths, accounting for more than 60%. More importantly, many high-end rare earth processing technologies are currently only mastered by China.
In other words, other countries want to bypass China is almost impossible in the short term.
This is also why China dares to take action, in the face of the U.S. constant pressure on Chinese chips and high-end manufacturing, China also needs to have "counter-tools", rare earth is one of them.
Moreover, China has not cut a knife, but through "regulating specific objects + technology + components", to accurate regulation, can both combat targeted behavior, and not to completely disconnect.
On the one hand, the EU does want to get rid of its dependence on China, which has been pushing for a so-called “critical raw material strategy” in recent years, but the problem is that there are fewer projects that really land.
Facing reality, they have to admit that they really can't do a lot of things without China.
On the other hand, the "unified interests" within the EU also make it difficult to form a consistent policy towards China. Germany, France are still considering how to engage in new energy cooperation with China, and Eastern European countries are more concerned about food and energy security, and are not free to engage in the "rare-earth front".
This mixed interest structure keeps the EU in a state of "saying more and doing less" when handling its relations with China.
China is also aware of this, so at the same time as issuing the new rules, it also released the communication number and is willing to strengthen dialogue through existing mechanisms to promote compliance trade.
This "holding back" approach is actually to provide buffer space for players like the EU.
The question now is whether the EU is willing to take this step. If we insist on following the United States all the way to the end, it is not just rare earths that will suffer, but also the entire China-EU relations.
ended
The European Union's response to China's rare-earth new rules, both gestures and calculations. on the surface is a "stack", the reality is "examination".It at the same time cries out to join hands with the United States, while quietly arranging the request for talks, indicating that it both wants to stand and does not want to stop confessing.
This rare-earth wave, in fact, is the test of the strategic independence of the EU. In the moment the Chinese-American game is growing, the EU is to be its own "chess player", or continue to be the "chess" in the hands of others?
Reference information: Observer Network: The EU wants to collude with the G7: Let's work together to put effective pressure on China