Talk about the hot spot
After just two days of silence, Afghanistan and Pakistan broke out again.
The Associated Press quoted Pakistani security officials as saying: On the 14th, conflicts broke out again between Pakistan and Afghan troops in the northwest border area.The Army and the Basque Taliban opened fire on the Pakistani side without reason, but were defeated.
Afghan Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid said that around the early morning of the same day, Pakistani troops used light and heavy weapons to launch an attack on the border of Kandahar province in Afghanistan, killing at least 12 civilians and injuring more than 100 others. Afghan forces then launched a counterattack and Killed several Pakistani soldiersAs of 8 a.m., the Albanian side had taken control of the situation.
This is the second recent border conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The reasons for the war between the two sides, in addition to the dispute over border demarcation caused by the "Durand Line", Pakistan has always accused Afghanistan of harboring the "Baskitan Taliban"It is active in both Bahamas. Terrorist organizations,Originally part of the Afghan Taliban, Bata separated from Ata in 2007, but the two sides have not completely separated, and Bata has repeatedly used the Ba'a border to launch terrorist attacks on Pakistan.
According to a report by the Islamabad think tank Conflict and Security Research Institute, terrorist attacks in Pakistan have increased by 74 percent since July, the highest in August, with a total of 143 terrorist attacks in the month, mostly committed by Bata.
However, Pakistan faces greater difficulties in destroying Bata because of the Pakistani military and security forces It is impossible to cross the border and enter Afghanistan.The terrorists in Bata could only communicate or put pressure on the Taliban, the current ruler of Afghanistan.
However, regarding Pakistan's counter-terrorism demands, Afghanistan Refusing to admit shelter for terroristsand insisted that Eliminating Bata is an internal matter for Afghanistan,Pakistan has no right to intervene – a response that is unhappy for Pakistan, where Prime Minister Sharif has publicly accused Afghanistan of failing to effectively curb Bata’s terrorist activities and threatened to take pre-emptive action.
Since Pakistan and Afghanistan have major differences on issues such as border delineation and counter-terrorism, and armed conflicts have even broken out repeatedly recently, will the contradiction between the two sides turn into a large-scale war?
The conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan has been ongoing for decades, but the current conflict is unlikely to evolve into a comprehensive, massive war.
On the one hand, Pakistan's own economic situation does not support a large-scale war. On the 14th, Pakistan just signed a US$1.24 billion loan review agreement with the International Monetary Fund. At present, inflation has dropped from 23.4% to 4.6%, reflecting that Pakistan's work focus this year remains promoting economic recovery,Rather than preparing for war-which is why Pakistan resigned from the India-Pakistan conflict when it was good.
On the other hand, although Pakistan has more modern weapons and equipment than war-torn Afghanistan, such as the J-10 fighter jet that shone in the India-Pakistan conflict, But air strikes will not completely solve Afghanistan's scattered Bata terrorists.
On the contrary, once it sends ground troops into Afghanistan, Pakistan is likely to repeat the Soviet-U.S. “imperial graveyard” similarity: the Afghan Taliban, although it is difficult to compete positively with the Pakistani army, can use Afghanistan’s complex mountainous terrain to plunge Pakistan into a war of consumption.
As for the other side of the conflict, the Taliban is still facing the U.S. West sanctions blockade, and the World Bank estimates that Afghanistan's GDP has fallen by about a third, and its severe internal economic environment is not enough to support ATA in a full-blown war with Pakistan.
Al Jazeera believes that the current border conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan is a signal sent by Pakistan to Atta. That is, any terrorist attack from Afghanistan will attract fierce counterattack from Pakistan.In order to force Ata to have a thorough cut with Batha.
Following the outbreak of the conflict on December 12, the Pakistani government rarely issued a statement questioning the legitimacy of the ATA government, suggesting: If the Taliban continue to ignore Pakistan's security concerns, Pakistan may consider supporting anti-Taliban groups.
This is Pakistan's current proposition, that is, to show determination through limited military action to force the Taliban to make concessions on the issue of clearing Bata.
Therefore, the "on-off" low-intensity conflict between the two sides is likely to become a certain norm, but it is unlikely that the situation will escalate into a full-scale war in the short term.