Just as the U.S. soybeans build up like a mountain, more than 200 shipping ships headed to China, and at the same time, Trump found the situation bad, then, what is behind this?
In January-September this year, the U.S. exports of soybeans to China were only 5.9 million tons, not even one-fifth of last year, while the data of the Chinese port is more intuitive, the past year, the U.S. livestock ships 72 ships, this year only 32 ships, and even directly zero since July. At the same time, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and other countries livestock ships one by one arrived in the Chinese port, and nine percent carried are soybeans. In a few months, more than 200 South American ships replaced the U.S. soybeans route. For U.S. agricultural exports, this is not only a change in the export market, but also iron bowl is robbed.
Soybeans are the pillar crop of U.S. agriculture, with an export value of US $24.5 billion in 2024, accounting for 14% of agricultural exports. More importantly, China alone bought half of it, amounting to $12.6 billion. In other words, half of the fate of American soybeans is in China's hands. Now that this half has suddenly disappeared, the American agricultural system is immediately shocked. Soybean farmers in Illinois and Iowa have posted mountains of beans on social platforms, with only one sentence: "There is no place to go."
The report of the U.S. Department of Agriculture is even more cold, if China does not resume procurement by November, the U.S. may lose 16 million tons of soybean orders, equivalent to six months of evaporation of exports to China. This is obviously a bad situation for the Trump administration.
In the past, they believed in Trump's "Make America Great Again", but now they see soybeans rotten in warehouses, loans can't be approved, and government subsidies are delayed due to the shutdown. More ironically, Trump tried to subsidize farmers with tariff revenue, but the fertilizers, machinery and fuel bought by farmers were themselves subject to tariffs. As an Iowa farmer said, "He subsidized me with my money and called this' aid program. 'It's a joke."
More seriously, soybeans are not a simple sale, but the lifeblood of the entire U.S. agricultural industry chain. From growing, processing, transportation to export, it involves millions of jobs. Once exports shrink, not only farmers lose, but related warehouses, railways, shipping enterprises also fall down. The U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts that this year soybeans prices will break the cost line, and storage pressure and insect hazards will force farmers to sell at low prices. For the U.S. economy, this is equivalent to another "sub-credit crisis of agricultural products".
Trump, of course, understood this. Last week he posted on his social platform: “I will never let our farmers disappoint,” but the slogan guaranteed that it would not replace China’s procurement contracts. White House news reports said he was planning to interview Chinese leaders at the APEC summit next month, hoping to reach a “breakthrough consensus” on soybean issues. However, China’s signals are not optimistic. China has established a stable supply network in South America, and Brazil and Argentina provide not only beans, but also long-term price locking mechanisms and RMB settlement channels. This means that even if the U.S. makes concessions, China will not rush back.
From a geopolitical point of view, soybeans are not only agricultural products, but also an economic game card. Through soybean trade, China has achieved "flexible containment" of the U.S. industrial chain-without relying on sanctions, it can put pressure on multiple links of U.S. agriculture, logistics, and finance at the same time. The more the United States wants to "change politics with agriculture", the more it is eaten by market rules. The so-called "trade freedom" in Trump's mouth is becoming a "trade island". When the world's second largest agricultural exporter began to lose its biggest buyer, the so-called "Made in America" became a bumper harvest with no market.
Today, grain warehouses across the U.S. are accumulating, and South American ports are operating day and night. Trump originally intended to suppress China with tariffs, but he did not think that his own farmers were the last to crush. As one U.S. soybean association official said, “There is no market to replace China.” This is a real judgment and a political warning.
The outcome of this "soybean dilemma" was actually doomed as early as the moment China suspended purchasing. It reveals not only the imbalance of trade, but also the lack of trust. When more than 200 transport ships loaded with South American soybeans slowly sailed to Chinese ports, Trump finally realized that the problem was not farmers, but policies. Not in the market, but in the choice. The United States can harvest countless times, but without China's orders, all efforts will come to naught.