On October 14, U.S. time, Trump posted an angry post on his social account, pointing the finger at China again. This time it was nothing else but soybeans again.

He accused China of ¡°deliberately not buying¡± U.S. soybeans, and even said it was ¡°economically hostile¡± to the U.S. and immediately subsequently said he would consider ordering an end to the trade with China in oil-related aspects if China did not resume its procurement.

After all, this is not the first time that Trump has been talking about soybeans, but this time, the bottom is clearly weaker than before.

Whether China buys soybeans or not, the United States is in no hurry, who can't live without whom?

In the final analysis, Trump's statement was not because China suddenly stopped buying soybeans, but because the United States could no longer bear it. This year, the pressure on American farmers is increasing. Many soybeans have been planted, but sales have become narrower. Trump has repeatedly stressed the need to help farmers find markets and make exports smoother. Now it seems that this promise is becoming increasingly difficult to fulfill, and the inability to sell soybeans is the most heart-warming reality.

From the surface, it looks like a simple trade dispute, but the problems behind it are much more complex than imagined. China was once the biggest buyer of U.S. soybeans, but over the years, China has adjusted its procurement strategy to no longer rely as heavily on a single channel as before. South America has become a new major supplier, and China is also struggling to promote autonomous cultivation and diversified imports. In other words, China now has a choice, no longer not the United States.

In contrast to the United States, the soya cultivation area has not decreased, the output is still growing steadily, but exports are becoming more and more difficult. Without China, the big buyer, where are the soybeans?Other markets are also developing, but in the short term can not replace China's purchase volume.

As a politician, Trump certainly knows what this means. On the one hand, he wants to take care of the interests of farmers, and on the other hand, he is unwilling to show weakness at the negotiating table. So he made a fuss about soybeans and put on the attitude of "if you don't buy it, I'll turn against you". But the problem is that in the current situation, this threat seems to be a bit unconfident.

Said he wanted to cut off trade, but he ended up stuck in his neck

This time Trump made harsh words and said that he would end the edible oil trade related to China, which seemed to be serious. But anyone who knows a little about the trade structure between China and the United States knows that this statement actually cannot withstand scrutiny. The main trade flow between China and the United States in the field of edible oil is actually not that the United States exports to China, but that the United States imports a special oil from China-waste edible oil.

This kind of waste oil is not eaten in the United States, but is used as a raw material for biofuels. The United States has vigorously developed renewable energy in recent years, and waste oil is an important part of it. If your own raw materials are not enough, you can only import them from outside. China happens to be the largest exporter of such raw materials. Simply put, the United States wants to use it, and China has to sell it. In fact, the two sides have demand for each other.

Therefore, if this line is really to be broken, it is not necessarily China that will be greatly affected, but the United States itself. Biofuel companies cannot obtain raw materials and their production capacity cannot keep up, making it difficult to achieve policy goals. Trump's remarks sound tough, but in fact they may be "shooting yourself in the foot".

More importantly, this threat to China, the impact is actually limited. China's waste oil exports are not only dependent on the United States market, many countries in the world have demand. This time, Trump's "end trade" trick has no substantial effect, but exhibits a lack of understanding of the actual situation, or is a "confrontation gesture" intentionally made for political purposes.

Soybeans that cannot be sold and promises that cannot be fulfilled are Trump's real anxiety

Why did Trump talk about soybeans?In fact, the answer was straightforward.He made a lot of promises to supporters during the campaign, especially to the agricultural state.He said he had a way to solve the problem of soybeans exports, to get American agricultural products back out of the country.But the reality didn't give him the face. Soybeans can't sell out, farmers complain, and voters' patience is exhausted.

He has tried to rely on government subsidies to quell dissatisfaction, or find other buyers to replace China, but the results are not satisfactory. Subsidies are not a long-term solution, and budgets can't keep up; At most, new buyers can pick up a small part, which can't fill the gap in China's "supermarket" at all. At this time, he can't publicly admit defeat, so he can only continue to make a "tough stance" and throw the blame on China.

Soybeans cannot be sold, Trump says that China is "deliberately not buying"; domestic agricultural pressure is great, he says that China is engaging in "economic hostility"; voters are dissatisfied, he says "to end trade".

Moreover, this practice of repeatedly talking about "terminating trade" is no longer a new trick. In the past few years, when facing various international issues, he often used "threats" to try to press the other side to make concessions. But nowadays, the effect of this practice is getting worse and worse. In the face of these remarks, China is basically doing things at its own pace, and has not been easily led by the rhythm. On the contrary, the contradictions within the United States are becoming more and more obvious, especially the anxiety in agriculture, energy and other fields is intensifying.

The mouth is hard, the truth is powerless, cooperation is the right way to solve the problem.

Judging from this incident, Trump's remarks are more an emotional vent than a substantive policy. He tried to stabilize supporters by creating confrontation, but this stance would neither solve the problem nor change reality.

Today, when the global industrial chain is deeply intertwined, it is no longer possible to influence the overall situation simply by shouting and exerting pressure. The trade relationship between China and the United States cannot be broken by anyone. Thousands of enterprises, workers, markets and supply chains in Qian Qian are involved behind it. Once the line is really "disconnected", it is often both sides who are injured, or even the one who takes the initiative to lift the table.

Soybeans cannot be sold, and it is not possible to force China to buy it by "terminating the edible oil trade." If waste oil is really not allowed to be imported, it will be a blow to the United States 'own biofuel industry. With these realities in front of us, Trump's "threat logic" has long been outdated.

China did not respond tit-for-tat, but continued to maintain its own pace. This stable and calm handling method actually reflects a kind of maturity. In this game, whoever is calmer will be more confident. The more anxious Trump is to express his position, the more it shows how heavy the pressure he is facing at home.

After all, trade is mutually beneficial, not fighting. In the past, China and the United States have been cooperating in agricultural products, energy and other fields for many years, and have long been complementary.

conclusion

Trump once again played the familiar "threat cards", this time the topic of soybean and eaten oil seems to be old-fashioned, in fact revealed more anxiety.China's procurement strategy is changing, the days of fully relying on the United States has passed, and the United States itself is also trying to pull back the market lost in the past.

This wave of soybeans is not just a question of exports and imports, not just a game between China and the United States, but also a test of how the country responds to the changes in the global industrial pattern. China is prepared, rhythmic, not rushed; while the United States is frequently tricked under political pressure, but the tricks are increasingly useless.

In the end, this is business, not war. really want to solve the problem, relying on negotiation, is understanding, is mutual benefit, not screaming with the ballot, not pushing the door pressure. to "end" to scare, in the end can not scare each other, but expose their own shortcomings.

This soybean storm is actually a mirror that shows who can stabilize the situation and who has lost control.

Source: China does not buy soybeans, Trump is blackmailing again ¨C Observer Network 2025-10-15 08:30