Recently, the U.S. Department of Transportation proposed to ban Chinese airlines from flying over Russian airspace when flying to and from the United States, and required Chinese airlines to respond within only two working days, which aroused great concern from Chinese and American airlines and the international community.

Faced with the ban, seven Chinese airlines jointly submitted a letter on 14 December asking for an extension of the commentary period.This apparent dispute around the route actually reflects the complex game between China and the United States in economic and geopolitical spheres.

The U.S. Department of Transportation¡¯s proposal appears to be aimed at ¡°cutting the competitive gap between Sino-US Airways.¡±

Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, the United States and its allies have banned Russian airlines from entering its airspace, and Russia has taken countermeasures to ban American flights from flying over Russian airspace.

This policy has forced U.S. airlines to fly around on routes to Asia, increasing flight time and operating costs. According to the American Aviation Association, this adjustment has reduced U.S. Airways profits by about $2 billion annually.

In contrast, Air China has gained an advantage in terms of flight time and cost by continuing to fly over Russian airspace.

For example, on the route from Beijing to Los Angeles, the flight time of Chinese airlines saves an average of 1.5-2 hours compared with that of American airlines. This "competitive imbalance" has become the reason why the American aviation industry frequently puts pressure on the government.

However, the motivation for this ban does not stop at the economic level.

From a political perspective, the U.S. government chose to impose a ban at this time, which may be adding leverage to subsequent Sino-US economic and trade negotiations.

Especially on the issue of Boeing passenger aircraft sales, China has indicated that it will consider resuming large-scale purchases of Boeing aircraft, with orders of up to 500 aircraft, and the ban is considered as a way for the United States to test China's attitude in the aviation field.

At the same time, the lobbying pressure of the American aviation industry cannot be ignored. The American Air Transport Association, an industry group representing American Airlines, Delta and others, has long pressured the government to take measures to address what they see as "unfair competition."

In the face of the U.S. proposal, the spokesman of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Guo Jianquan, expressed clear opposition at the October 10 routine press conference, saying that "the U.S. imposes restrictions on the operation of Chinese airlines, which is not conducive to the exchanges of personnel between the two countries", and stressed that "the U.S. side should reflect on the impact of its own policies on its own enterprises, rather than unreasonably suppress other countries and let global consumers pay."

China Airways also noted that the two-day review period is too hasty to complete a comprehensive assessment of the impact of the ban, and a reasonable extension of the time is necessary.

If the ban eventually comes into effect, it could have far-reaching effects on the Chinese-American aviation market and consumer interests. China Airways will have to circumvent Russian airspace, which will directly increase operating costs and weaken its price competitiveness. On the consumer side, extended flight times and rising costs could lead to higher ticket prices and reduced flight options. More importantly, this ban could trigger a chain reaction in the international aviation market and further undermine the stability of global aviation rules.

In addition, in the face of the unilateral actions of the United States, China also has a variety of countermeasures to choose from. The most direct approach is to take reciprocal measures to restrict the route planning of American airlines in Asia or increase the difficulty of approval.

Moreover, China can also use its huge aviation market as a bargaining chip to force the United States to reassess the gains and losses of the ban. Even in other areas such as trade and investment, China may take cross-disciplinary countermeasures.

Whether the U.S. Department of Transportation will agree to China's aviation company's extension request will become an important signal for observing the direction of Sino-US aviation relations. It deserves our continued attention.