The US-China trade war has escalated rapidly in recent days, which has attracted global attention.
Trump has announced that he will impose a 100% tariff on China from November 1.The Chinese officials have clearly responded that they will not step back on the United States.
- In this context, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent openly stated that the U.S. intends to seek support from Europe and India and is prepared to play a “multi-to-one” strategy with China.
But as soon as the excitement started, Russia held an expert roundtable meeting, which directly broke the window paper. Academician Viktor Supyan of the Russian Academy of Sciences said very honestly: The 100% tariff is just talk and is unlikely to be implemented. In the end, Trump will still have to compromise with China, just as he did in his first term.
This is not a wild guess. There are solid facts. In 2020, Trump signed the first phase of an economic and trade agreement with China. At that time, he also took the initiative to reduce the already imposed tariffs from 15% to 7.5%. This was the first time he had reduced tariffs to other countries during his tenure.
This time, after he had just lifted taxes, the U.S. stock market evaporated $2 trillion on the same day, and the Nasdaq index fell by 3.56%, making it the worst day since April this year.
Even people in the United States can see it clearly. Experts from the Brookings Institution said that the market has long known that the United States has no advantage in a trade war with China. Trump must also be aware that if tariffs are to be increased to 100%, American retailers will have to raise prices, ordinary people will have to pay the bill, and his own approval rating will probably fall again.
Therefore, this so-called "extreme pressure" is actually a bluff before the negotiations, trying to force China to make concessions first. But China doesn't eat this set at all now. If you want to increase taxes, you can increase them. At worst, we don't buy American goods. Anyway, the high tariffs end up hitting the United States itself.
However, Russian experts also said that even if Trump compromises, it is conditional. He will never allow China to do two things: strengthen its military and develop advanced science and technology. This speaks to the bones of the United States. Whether it is the Republican Party or the Democratic Party, this mind has never changed.
Let's talk about the military first. In fact, the anxiety of the United States cannot be hidden. Despite its high military expenditure, many key components depend on China's rare earths. Take the engine of the F-35 fighter jet as an example. The core material is rare earth permanent magnets, and 85% of rare earth refined products in the United States have to be imported from China.
Before China just introduced new rules on rare-earth export controls, requiring products containing 0.1% of Chinese rare-earth ingredients to apply for licenses, U.S. defense contractors were panicked - there were data that if it was genuine confession, their 78% of the production lines had to be stopped.
Not to mention the field of science and technology. In recent years, the United States has not stopped making small moves. From Huawei's 5G chips to the introduction of the "Chip and Science Act" to restrict semiconductor exports, to put it bluntly, they are afraid that China will steal its job in the high-tech field.
After all, now China's scientific and technological development is too fast, the "14th Five-Year" five years, artificial intelligence enterprises from more than 1,400 to more than 5,000, an average of 11 hours to start a new enterprise. and then the 600 km high-speed magnetic floating train, the core system is completely independently developed, can already "flight the ground"; the world's largest power permanent magnetic direct-drive trucks, also used its own permanent magnetic engine and carbonated silicon technology, the transportation of coal is 33,000 tons a year.
What the United States is most worried about is that if China gains a firm foothold in these advanced technologies, the right to speak in the global industrial chain will have to change. Just like new energy vehicles, China now accounts for 60% of the world's market share. If it makes breakthroughs in core technologies such as batteries and chips, the days when the United States wants to make money by technology monopoly will come to an end. Therefore, even if it makes concessions in trade, it has to put a "tightening spell" on China in technology and military affairs. This is the real trump card of the United States.
In fact, Russian experts say this, China has long seen clearly and clearly, and in the heart followed the basic details.
On the one hand, we know that Trump will have to return to the negotiating table sooner or later, so we are not afraid of his verbal threats at all. There are too few cards in his hand: tax increases trick his own people, and no one really works with him when he finds allies to form a team-European companies, such as German Volkswagen, have to rely on China's rare earth magnets. If they really confront the United States, their own production lines will be affected first.
On the other hand, China has a lot of counter-measures in its hand. Rare earth control is a hard card, and our industrial chain is becoming more and more complete. In 2024, the whole society will invest more than 3.6 trillion yuan in research and development, which is close to 1.5 times that of 2020. Even if the United States does not let go, we can make breakthroughs ourselves. As the spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce said, threatening tariffs at every turn is not the right way to get along with China at all. We have the confidence to spend money with him.
On the other hand, we are more clear that even if a trade agreement is signed, the game between China and the United States is not far from ending. Controlling China's development has become a consensus between the United States and the two parties, whether Trump becomes president or changes others, this idea will not change.
The high-speed intelligent manufacturing plant has achieved digital control, production efficiency increased by 20%, the cycle has also shortened by 5 days; rare earth separation technology patents accounted for 85% of the world, and no longer afraid of the human neck. in 2024, the national industrial added value has risen to 40.5 trillion yuan, "three new" economy accounts for a higher and higher proportion of GDP, these are our bottom.
To put it bluntly, China's attitude has always been very clear: negotiations are possible, but they have to be sincere. There is no way to rely on coercion to make us give up military and technological development. Whether it's a trade war or a technological blockade, it forces us to make up for the shortcomings.
Just like the "push-back feeling" of the high-speed rail, China has accelerated on the track of science and technology and development, and will not slow down because of anyone's threat. If Trump really wants to talk, he has to come up with something real. If he still wants to play virtual and engage in containment, then we will accompany him to the end-after all, the initiative is no longer in the hands of the United States.
Reference: Feeling the "push back" of scientific and technological innovation from multiple angles. China has experienced multiple "accelerations" on the track of self-reliance and self-reliance in high-level science and technology
Sino-US trade conflict escalates: technological dominance becomes a key factor