The observer network.

China has pressed the "suspension key" on purchasing soybeans, and the American soybeans farmers who harvest the season are struggling to talk to Trump with China.

But what did the president of the United States do?

Just on October 14 local time, Trump once again issued a trade blackmail on China¡¯s social media platform, claiming that China ¡°deliberately didn¡¯t buy¡± U.S. soybeans was an ¡°economic hostility¡± and he considered terminating part of the trade relationship with China, including the import of edible oil.

The US president posted on his social platform "Truth Social" that China "deliberately does not buy our soybeans, which brings difficulties to our soybean farmers. This is an act of economic hostility. In retaliation, we are considering terminating our business dealings with China in edible oil and other trade fields".

¡°For example, we can produce our own food oil without importing it from China.¡±

Speaking out for the bean farmers, I am afraid that the farmers will feel cold.

As for the edible oil specifically mentioned by Trump, the main part of Sino-US edible oil trade is actually the waste edible oil (UCO) imported by the United States for the manufacture of biofuels, which is commonly known as gutter oil.

The number of UCOs imported from the United States has grown rapidly since 2020, jumping from less than 90,000 tons in 2020 to more than 13.6 million tons in 2023, with the vast majority coming from China.

According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture website, in 2024, China's UCO exports to the United States reached a record level, and the United States became China's largest export destination of UCO, with an export volume of approximately 1.27 million tons, accounting for approximately 43% of China's total UCO exports.%.

But if he threatens China with this, he is too naive.

Field soybean harvesting site

Trump should note that regarding the purchase of US soybeans, in fact, China has already stated before that tariff wars and trade wars are not in the interests of either party, and both sides should negotiate and resolve relevant issues on the basis of equality, respect and reciprocity.

Data from the American Soybean Association (ASA) show that China has long been the largest soybean buyer in the United States. By 2024, China imported about 27 million tons of soybean from the United States, with a total value of $12.8 billion, accounting for about half of the total US soybean exports.

But as the Trump administration continues to increase tariff threats and restrict blockade, China has suspended the purchase of soybeans, instead of increasing imports from South American countries.

According to CCTV's "Yuyuan Tan Tian" learned from major grain terminals in China, from January to September this year, the number of US grain carriers docked dropped by 56% year-on-year, from 72 to 32. This is because since July, the number of grain carriers from the United States docked at the terminal has dropped to zero.

In comparison, since May, the terminal has had an average of more than 40 grain carriers from South American countries such as Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay docking every month. 90% of what these grain carriers transport is soybeans.

Obviously, Trump seriously misjudged the flexibility and strategic depth of China's trading system. China's reduction of U.S. soybean imports is not a passive countermeasure, but based on the already promoted supply chain diversification.

China, however, has hastened to jump foot on the other side of the ocean.

As U.S. soybeans enter the harvest season, American farmers who have lost China customers are caught in a "war for survival." Panic continues to spread and pressure is being exerted on the Trump administration to reach a solution with China.

To reduce their dependence on the Chinese market, U.S. bean farmers have travelled to Vietnam and the Philippines to try to persuade local livestock farmers to increase their purchases of U.S. soybeans, but one farmer has said, ¡°We can¡¯t find a market that will replace China overnight.¡±

Several U.S. media outlets have warned that in the long run, the prospects for the U.S. to resume mass exports of soybeans to China are not optimistic.China has doubts about the reliability of the Trump administration's trade promises, plus China's push for "self-sufficiency" policy, which could mean that in the foreseeable future, U.S. farmers are at risk of losing the Chinese market.

In a broader field, the Sino-US game has entered deep water.

"Regarding tariff wars and trade wars, China's position is consistent. Fight and accompany to the end; Talk, the door is open." A spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce stressed on the 14th that the US side can't talk while threatening to introduce new restrictive measures, which is not the right way to get along with China. China urges the US to correct its wrong practices as soon as possible, show sincerity in talks, go hand in hand with China, take the important consensus reached by the two heads of state on the phone as a guide, safeguard the hard-won consultation results, continue to play the role of the Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism, resolve their respective concerns through dialogue and consultation, properly manage differences, and promote the healthy, stable and sustainable development of Sino-US economic and trade relations.

Extended reading

As soybeans enter the harvest season, American farmers who have lost Chinese customers are plunged into a ¡°struggle for survival.¡±

According to the Wall Street Journal, the financial situation of U.S. soybean farms has been at risk under double pressure from rising equipment and fertilizer costs, excess supply of corn and soybeans.In order to calm farmers' emotions, the U.S. Congress passed a $10 billion agricultural bailout plan last December, and the Trump administration is considering additional $10 billion to $14 billion to mitigate the impact of the trade dispute on farmers.

On Monday (6), Trump announced at the White House that he would ¡°introduce agricultural-related support measures this week¡± to help farmers cope with declining export losses to China. A White House official told U.S. media that Trump is expected to meet with U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Rowling later this week to finally determine the source of agricultural bailout funding.

A spokesman for the U.S. Department of Agriculture responded that Trump was "using all available tools" to ensure that farmers have the resources they need to maintain agricultural production.

Farmers are expecting the bailout plan to be announced as soon as possible, according to the New York Times, but the White House said the government's ongoing shutdown forced the plan to be postponed.

On October 6, local time, Trump held a press conference at the White House.

However, the farm time is not waiting for people.The government is late to come up with a concrete solution, and the panic in the U.S. bean farming is further escalating.

Ron Kindred, who plants 1,700 acres of corn and soybeans in central Illinois, is halfway through this year's soybean harvest. In a signed contract, he plans to sell 40% of the soybean harvest, but the remaining 60% still faces "uncertainty". At present, local soybean prices have begun to fall.

"If an agreement cannot be reached with China as soon as possible, the soybean market may collapse," Kindrid said worriedly."China seems to have no sense of urgency, but the anxiety of the American agricultural community is growing stronger and stronger."

In order to reduce his dependence on the China market, Kindrid traveled to Vietnam and the Philippines to try to persuade local livestock farmers to increase U.S. soybean purchases. "Some progress has been made over the years, but we cannot find a market that can replace China overnight," he said.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the second and third largest buyers of U.S. soybeans are the EU and Mexico, respectively, the two countries combined annual procurement amount of about $5 billion, this scale is still less than China's $12.6 billion in the procurement volume in 2024.

Morey Hill, an Iowa soybean grower across the Mississippi River from Kindred, has also made several trips to Cambodia this year in search of opportunities. The latest visit was last week, when Hill introduced the planting technology of American soybean farmers with an annual output of 4 billion bushels to a room full of importers and local farmers.

During that trip, Hill and other American farmers also drove in a bus along a narrow road to the rural areas of Cambodia.He sold to local fish farmers and replaced the traditional cheap ¡°fish powder¡± (made from crushed small fish) with U.S. soybeans as feed, saying this could grow better quality, higher fat fish.

He also plans to travel to Morocco next month to promote U.S. soybeans as poultry feed.

According to reports, like thousands of U.S. farmers, Hill shifted from planting dried grass to cultivating soybeans about 30 years ago. At the time, the promotion of anti-farm soybeans, overlap with the surge in demand in the Chinese market, attracted a large number of farmers like him to expand the size of soybeans cultivation. According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. soybeans cultivation area grew by 40% between 1995 and 2024.

But now Hill has no motivation to sell new season soybeans, he warned that if a deal with China is not reached as soon as possible, the U.S. soybeans market ¡°could have a bloodshed.¡±

China hasn¡¯t bought a single soybean from the United States since May.

Iowa farmer Rob Ewoldt also traveled to Rome earlier this year to meet with a large poultry farmer in Tunisia.

But in Ewald's view, orders from countries like Tunisia are just "hits"(baseball terminology, referring to ordinary shots), which is far from being compared to the "home runs"(key shots) in the China market. In the long run, opening up new markets does help, but if U.S. growers cannot sell soybeans quickly, he fears he will have trouble raising the money to keep the farm running.

¡°Our farm requires $1 million in cash per year,¡± he said, ¡°you have to make sure you have about $1.3 million to cover the cost of your debt and have some money to maintain your livelihood.¡±

The current agricultural economic situation in the United States is so bad that some farmers have announced their abandonment. Dean Buchholz, a corn and soybean farmer in DeKalb County, Illinois, said this will be his final year of farming due to rising costs, low crop prices and some health problems. He plans to lease the land next year.

¡°I¡¯ve always thought I¡¯d be planting until the day I entered the land,¡± said Buchholz, ¡°but now the situation is that either invest a lot of money and put on more debt, or just give up.

Even if the U.S. continues to advance trade agreement negotiations now and in the future, farmers remain pessimistic that even if the two countries can reach an agreement, it is too late to save the profits of many U.S. farmers.

A representative of the soybean industry told Politico, ¡°At that time, half of our transportation window has passed, and for our farmers, it¡¯s a crucial moment, but we haven¡¯t seen any signs of any improvement that will give us hope for the problem to be solved and delivered to China.¡±

¡°Politico¡± pointed out that in the long run, the prospects for the U.S. to resume mass exports of soybeans to China are not optimistic. China has doubts about the reliability of the Trump administration¡¯s trade promises, plus the Chinese side is pushing for a ¡°self-sufficiency¡± strategy, which could mean that in the foreseeable future, U.S. farmers are at risk of losing the Chinese market.

Leland Lazarus, a former special assistant to the commander of the U.S. Southern Command, believes that China's choice to abandon U.S. soybean producers and switch to Latin American suppliers "is sending a clear signal that China has other friends in the world, especially in the global South. These countries have now become China's 'safety valves' and have also strengthened their bargaining chips when negotiating with the United States."

As for whether soybeans will be discussed in the Sino-US economic and trade consultations, my Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun previously stated at a regular press conference that it is recommended to seek understanding of specific issues from China's competent authorities. "What I want to emphasize is that tariff wars and trade wars are not in the interests of either party. Both sides should negotiate and resolve relevant issues on the basis of equality, respect and mutual benefit."