After Japan's quarter-century ruling coalition between the Self-Democratic Party and the People's Party of Japan, all sides in the Yongda Town are overlooked, and in the state of political drift, the prime minister's throne is no longer the new president of the Self-Democratic Party.City Earlythings in the pocket.

"Some people say I may not be prime minister, poor Sanae Takaichi, but I will not give up even at such a time." Takaichi said at a business-related event on Oct. 14 that she will do everything she can at the critical moment of the election of prime minister in parliament.

On October 10, 2025, in Tokyo, Japan, Japan's Liberal Democratic Party chairman, CaoÊÐÔçÃç (right) and Japan's Communist Party chairman, Ziyu Tifov, attended Congress Party Leaders' Meeting.

On the day of the high-profile vote, the Director-General of the National Democratic Party, Suzuki Jun, said in a meeting with the Director-General of the National Democratic Party that he hoped to get the other party's assistance in the prime minister's nomination election. On the same day, the Director-General of the Constitutional Democratic Party, the National Democratic Party and the Japanese Conservative Party held talks, and the Constitutional Democratic Party expressed hope to cooperate with the two parties in the prime minister's nomination election to promote regime change.

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The National Democratic Party, which was drawn to both sides of the DPRK, was pushed to the tip of the wind, and party leader Yūku Yūkuo Yūkuo Yūkuo said on 10th that he was "ready to be prime minister".He went to the Osaka World Expo site last weekend to speed up his time to raise personal exposure.

Political relations between Japanese parties

Why Yumu has become "sought after"

The prime minister nomination elections are expected to be held at the interim congress on 21 October, and the candidate who gets the majority of the total votes will be elected prime minister. If no candidate gets the majority of the majority, a second round of final votes will be held and the most votes will be elected.

The self-government party currently occupies 196 seats in the House of Representatives. In the opposition side: the Constitutional Democratic Party occupies 148 seats, the Japanese Socialist Party occupies 35 seats, the National Democratic Party occupies 27 seats. If the three parties of the People's Republic of China unite, they can get 210 votes, exceed the self-government party camp, it may be born "Yumi Prime Minister".

Major Japanese political parties and potential coalition seats

¡°As long as the first, second and third parties in the opposition are united, it will surpass 196 votes (the number of seats in the House of Representatives of the Self-Democratic Party) ¡°.

At the end of August 2011, Yoshihiko Noda was elected Prime Minister as the leader of the Democratic Party. The cabinet fell after only 482 days of existence, and the Democratic Party fell. After a lapse of 13 years, Noda was elected as the leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party and said: "We once handed over political power and fell to rock bottom. But I will climb up as hard as I can with my nails on the edge of a cliff."

In October last year, in the ¡°black gold¡± scandal, the prime ministerstone brokenIn office for eight days, lightning dissolved the House of Representatives, held early general elections, Nooda did not hide the attempt to take the picture, played the slogan of "the night before the regime change", calling on the opposition parties to vote for him in the prime minister nomination election, but failed to obtain the majority in the opposition party response, Nooda recalled: "That was a major lesson."

Nooda is well aware that only the opposition forces of the Third National Congress can prevent the self-government party from continuing to rule, and there is no need to do so. The head of the Vichy Party and also the governor of the Osaka city, Qi Miyu Yuan, said: "If the people and the national democracy can really cooperate, we will seriously consider the discussion (unifying the candidate), but this is very low."

As Yoshimura said, there are clear differences between the Constitutional Democratic Party and the National Democratic Party. The two parties were also split from the former Democratic Party. The National Democratic Party's stance is center-right and supports nuclear power; the Constitutional Democratic Party is center-left and opposes constitutional amendment and supports abolition of nuclear power. They all have the support of trade union organizations behind them, but their respective trade unions also have differences of interests, and the specific path of alliance is unclear. The Secretary-General of the National Democratic Party, Haziya Kazuzu, asked the Constitutional Democratic Party: "Is there really a willingness to amend the Constitution? Can we accept the restart and reconstruction of nuclear power plants?"

According to the "West Japan News" report, the Chief Executive Officer of the Constitutional Democratic Party, Anji Yoshin, visited the Chief Executive Officer of the National Democratic Party, Zhao Yoshin, on the 8th, and proposed that Yumi as the possibility of reunifying the prime minister candidate in the opposition camp, hoping to use this as a cooperation code.

On the other hand, due to the close policy propositions and smooth communication channels, the Liberal Democratic Party is also actively lobbying the National Democratic Party to join the ruling coalition, seeking to change the difficult situation of the minority regime. On the second day after the presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party in takaichi sanae, he had a secret dialogue with Yuichiro Tamaki, the leader of the National Democratic Party, and held public talks on the 8th to negotiate on income tax and gasoline tax, which were regarded as the "touchstone" of cooperation between the two sides.

If the National Democratic Party joins the ruling coalition with the Self-Democratic Party, the dream of regime change will be broken.

While both the Liberal Democratic Party and the Constitutional Democratic Party were trying to win over the National Democratic Party, the Komeito Party unilaterally withdrew from the ruling coalition on the 10th, which became a key step in changing the situation and also prompted the status of the National Democratic Party to rise sharply.

On the same day, Yumi held a press conference, repeated six times "I intend to be the prime minister of the cabinet," but was asked if he would endorse the candidate for the unified prime minister of the opposition, he was vague.

Subsequently, the situation suddenly changed, and the intention of the Japanese People's Party to join the People's Party suddenly turned straight, and in a Japanese TV show on 12 said that previous discussions were based on the unification of the People's Party and the People's Party, coupled with the National Democratic Party, could outperform the majority of the House of Representatives.

When the outside world thought that the balance of the National Democratic Party had tilted towards the plan of the Constitutional Democratic Party, Tamaki said on the 11th that he could not cooperate with the Constitutional Democratic Party at present because the basic policies were inconsistent. He demanded that the Constitutional Democratic Party must be consistent with the position of the National Democratic Party through inner-party resolutions on security and energy policies. In this regard, Noda Yoshihiko, leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party, said: "The statement that 'a resolution within the party must be passed, otherwise there will be no talks' is too lofty."

At the same time, the self-government party is still struggling to cooperate with the national democracy party. The head of the national democracy party, Zhejiang Zhaozhin, said on the 14th that three priorities were put forward as the conditions for joint governing - constitutional reform, energy policy and security. The self-government party's head, Suzuki, said: "Our basic ideas are not different, we hope to work together."

The coalition regime is destined for a short life.

Historically, the opposition coalition regime formed in order to gather the majority failed to last long. In 1955, the Japanese Liberal Party and the Japanese Democratic Party merged to form the self-government party, thus opening up the long-running "1955 system". Under this system, the ruling self-government party confronted the largest socialist party in the opposition for a long time. In 1993, the self-government party came down, marking the collapse of the "1955 system". Since then, joint power has been established between the political parties.

In 1993, the Joint Cabinet ended the self-government party's 38-year rule, but it only lasted eight months; since 2009, the Democratic Party regime lasted only three years and three months.

According to the analysis, whether it is the Liberal Democratic Party or the opposition party, it is often necessary to accept the requirements of the ruling partner when operating the coalition regime, which is restricted. If there is no full agreement on the policy concept, and an alliance is formed just to "make up the number", it may lead to difficulties in the operation of the regime. At the same time, after joining the ruling coalition, the former opposition party can more easily promote the realization of its own policies, but it also faces the risk of losing its unique political style and position.

Who wins the prime minister and whether the regime changes depends on the wrestling of various parties around this "digital game". However, analysts generally believe that even if the Takashi Cabinet is established, its ruling foundation is expected to be one of the weakest in history. At present, the Liberal Democratic Party has only 196 seats out of all 465 seats in the House of Representatives and 100 seats out of all 248 seats in the Senate.

According to the "Daily Shimbun" report, since the Liberal Democratic Party currently occupies a minority of seats in the House of Representatives, some members believe that it is uncertain whether Takashi will be elected in the prime minister's name election. Shigeru Ishiba should continue to temporarily serve as prime minister and implement a "separation of the president"(that is, the Liberal Democratic Party president and prime minister are held by different people) system.

The previous state of "general separation" usually lasted only a few days, with the rocky regime in 2024 established four days after the party's president's election; and the Shandong-Moon regime in 2021 established five days after the party's president's election, which is expected to delay at least two weeks, which is extremely rare.

In response to the ¡°General Separation¡±, Suzuki Yuan, the head of the self-government party, said on the 14th that the party¡¯s executive department has not considered this approach at the moment, while Yumi Yuan said: ¡°Maybe we have entered a new political situation where we have to consider such an arrangement.¡±