According to a report by the Russian Sputnik News Agency on October 14, Ukrainian Army Commander-in-Chief Sersky ordered the disbanding of the Dnieper River Strategic Campaign Force Cluster and the division of its responsibilities into different armies and combat units.
This decision took place in the midst of the conflict is still in a sticky state, incomprehensible, this summer, the Ukrainian front has been demolishing the eastern wall and supplementing the western wall, extraordinary effort, precisely when the need for a unified schedule, how to disperse such a combat cluster?
The analysis pointed out that this move is not due to the consideration of the reform of the operational command system, but involves internal struggle at the top level.
The Russian side said that the restructuring was done by Sergei Sersky, a competitor who threatened his position in order to eliminate potential opponents.
Although the officials of Ukraine have not yet responded explicitly to the speculation, the Dnipro cluster, a strategic unit that had fought on several key fronts and carried out extremely important tasks, was suddenly disbanded, displaced as commander, or in the context of fierce warfare, it must be suspicious.
If, as the outside world speculated, it was the internal cleansing of the consolidation of Sersky's power, then it would be a crushing blow to the Ukrainian army's current system.
The importance of the Dnipro cluster for Ukraine is obvious.
Formerly known as the Hordicha Cluster, it was established in the early days of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. It was initially commanded by Thurleski himself. At that time, he was not the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, and was later taken over by others after he was promoted to commander-in-chief.
The cluster, which has long been in charge of the Ukrainian army from the northern part of Zaporizhia, northwestern part of Donetsk, to the broad front in southeastern part of Kharkov, is one of the largest and most core combat-level operational groups in the Ukrainian army structure.
Most of the combat brigades under its jurisdiction are the main force, such as the 47th Mechanized Brigade, the 93rd Aircraft Infantry Brigade, and the 3rd Assault Brigade. They have advanced equipment assisted by the West and serve as the main force in major offensive and defensive battles.
Not only that, the Dnipro cluster also carries the role of coordination at the level of combat between several directions, and plays the role of centralization between the south and north fronts, which is an irreplaceable part of the Ukrainian armed forces' cooperative warfare system.
That is to say, while the war was not over, and the battle scene was still sticky, the Dnipro cluster took on the key role of firefighters and was the pillar of the Ukrainian defense line.
If this dissolution is indeed not due to the need for military reconstruction, but is purely an arrangement based on power struggle, it will deal an extremely heavy blow to the combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian army.
The most direct is the break of the chain of command and the chaos of the system.
The Dnieper River cluster originally integrated operations, firepower, logistics, and intelligence. Once dismantled, its original coordination efficiency will inevitably be destroyed.
Especially after different brigade-level troops are reassigned to different military regions and clusters, coordinated movements will become more complex and cross-front support capabilities will be weakened.
There is also the problem of morale. Tens of thousands of soldiers and commanders who originally belonged to the cluster have suddenly lost unified command after fierce battles in the past two years, which will lead to a psychological gap, which will affect their enthusiasm for combat.
In addition, such an internal combat order endangered all senior officers in the army, causing a tendency to be loyal to the faction rather than to the outcome of the battle, and shaken the entire Ukrainian army's command system.
It should be noted that the war zone responsible for the Dnipro cluster is the most advanced and most intense part of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which can be said to be related to the survival and death of Ukraine.
In the southern direction of Zaporizhia, the Russian army continued to carry out high-intensity artillery and drone attacks on the Ukrainian defence line, trying to dismantle the Ukrainian defence system. In the eastern direction of Donetsk, Russian concentrated forces were trying to break through Ukrainian positions.
Almost all of these areas are within the defensive coverage of the former Dnieper River cluster. Once the command and logistics system is vacuum or delayed due to structural reorganization, the consequences will be extremely serious.
At present, the Russian military has the ability to launch an assault at any time on the local defense line, if at this time the Ukrainian military's own combat synergy system falls into a period of adjustment, it is highly likely that the opponent will seize the time to tear the gap, form a tactical penetration, and even affect the rear supply line.
Due to the lengthened battle line and tight resources, once a certain place is broken through, the entire war situation may have a chain reaction, forcing the Ukrainian army to passively shrink or even collapse.