The core point:
1. The Palestinian-Israeli "Phase I Ceasefire Agreement" highly overlaps with the first five articles of Trump's "20-point Plan", reflecting the strong mediation of the United States. Trump used military aid and political pressure to force Israel to make concessions, and used "coercion and inducement" to push Hamas to sign the agreement. Motives include both political considerations and family business interests。
The agreement focuses mainly on “hostage exchange” and “Israeli withdrawal”, but The expression of “militarization” and “post-war governance” is vague.The so-called “International Stability Forces” and the “Temporary Governance Mechanism” excluded any substantial involvement by the Palestinian side.
After the ceasefire, Netanyahu may face a resumption of the judicial investigation, but right-wing forces still dominate, and he may continue to maintain power on external security issues. Israel may shift its strategic focus to wider regional threats such as Iran and the Houthis in Yemen.
Egypt, Qatar and Turkey Negotiation – Implementation – A closed circle in reconstruction, also reflects the trend of Middle Eastern countries trying to establish an independent security system.
Introduction: On October 9, Palestine and Israel signed the first phase ceasefire agreement. Is behind the agreement a starting point for genuine peace, or a short respite from war? Key issues of demilitarization and post-war governance remain blurred, and the future of Gaza remains foggy. In this program, Gong Jiong, a professor at university of international business and economics, and Wang Xinyao, a research assistant at Minzhi International Research Institute, are invited to give you insight into the United States.
Editor of this issue: Zhang Yifan
1、 Moderator: On October 9, Palestinians and Israel signed a phase one ceasefire agreement, and on October 13, Hamas began to release Israeli hostages.
Gong Jiong: First of all, we must distinguish between this "Phase I Ceasefire Agreement" and Trump's "20-Point Plan". The two are not the same matter, but the current agreement has considerable overlaps with the first five of the 20 articles. content.
Trump’s role in this is very crucial. Can put tremendous pressure on Israel for arms supplies and international political supportPreviously, in the UN Security Council resolution on a ceasefire in Gaza, only the United States voted against, the photo of the United States representative raising his hand alone is of historic significance and also shows that the United States has great influence on the Israeli issue.
Second, it is reported that Trump both "induced" and "pressured" in the negotiations. He made it clear, If Hamas refuses to sign a ceasefire and hostage exchange agreement, the United States will be directly involved in bombing Hamas.And given a clear deadline.This creates a strong pressure on both sides.
At the same time, as the people in Gaza generally supported the ceasefire and called for an end to the fighting, the Hamas leadership finally signed the agreement under public opinion and political pressure, even though it had reservations.
U.S. President Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkov, along with his daughter Ivanka Trump and son-in-law Jared Kushner, attended a large rally and spoke on Saturday in Tel Aviv’s “Hostage Square.”
2、 The presidingWhat does Trump’s and the U.S. government’s intervention have to do with the U.S. Middle East strategy and what other factors have prompted the Trump administration to intervene in this ceasefire mediation?
The U.S. interests in the Middle East have been controversial. Traditional wisdom holds that Israel is the most important ally of the United States in the Middle East. Others believe that the U.S. -Israeli relationship stems more from the powerful Israel lobby in the country.Jewish organizations such as the AIPAC (American Israeli Public Affairs Commission) have great influence in Congress, rather than have practical strategic significance.
In addition to, Trump’s push also blends personal and family factors.His son-in-law Kushner, for example, was a Jew who had considered developing hotels and holiday projects in Gaza. Trump pushed the peace process and may also create opportunities for families to participate in the future in rebuilding Gaza.
In addition, Trump also faces domestic political pressure. The voice of U.S. support for Palestine is growing at home, even among his core voters.Many politicians and scholars publicly refer to Israel’s actions in Gaza as “genocide,” such as Sen. Bernie Sanders.
In the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States and Europe urgently need the support of the Third World and global Southern nations for Ukraine, but are questioned in the Ukraine and Gaza issue "different standards".
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump on Middle East peace talks at a White House event.
3, chairman: According to the “20 Points Plan,” the transitional management will be carried out by a committee of technical experts and supervised by the international community before the reform of the Palestinian National Authority.
As seen from the revelation, This “temporary governance mechanism” is more like a foreign regime or even a “colonial” structure.。A committee of Palestinian technical experts ostensibly manages it, but core leadership lies in the hands of Trump and the Gaza "Peace Council", which includes former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. The existing legitimate Palestinian regime, the Abbas government in Ramallah in the West Bank, has not been included. In addition, the local people and local political forces in Gaza have not been truly included in decision-making, but only passively "hired" some experts to participate in administrative affairs.
Therefore, this is essentially a transitional regime dominated by external forces, and the Palestinians have little real governance rights. It is not an exaggeration to call it "colonial rule."
4. Moderator: What do you think of Netanyahu's political prospects after the war? With the arrival of the ceasefire, will his control in Israel weaken? In addition, the "two-state solution" is an international consensus. 142 countries in the United Nations have supported the establishment of a Palestinian state, but Israel explicitly rejected it with the support of the United States. How will this attitude affect agreement implementation and long-term peace in the Middle East?
Noah: Netanyahu’s political prospects are challenging. First, before the outbreak of the war, he was under judicial investigation for corruption issues, but the war forced the relevant proceedings to be discontinued. Once a genuine ceasefire, the judicial proceedings may resume, which is detrimental to him.
Secondly, even with a ceasefire in Gaza, the regional conflict has not ended, and he continues to focus his eyes on broader external threats (such as Iran, Lebanon, Yemen Houthi, etc.), Iran’s nuclear facilities and missile capabilities, which remain the main concern of the Israeli government.
Overall, under the internal pattern of the strong right within Israel and the marginalization of the left, he is still able to maintain a strong power base in the short term, tending to continue to consolidate the governing base on external security issues.
The "two-state solution" is difficult to implement at the practical level.The West Bank of the Jordan River is divided into Palestinian-controlled areas, Israeli-controlled areas and nominal "co-governed areas". The Palestinian-controlled areas are limited to a few cities and surrounding towns. The whole region is scattered like “Swiss Cheese,” and the Palestinian-controlled area is like a little hole in cheese, surrounded by Israel.。
More importantly, there is no airport in the West Bank, and people need Israeli visas to enter. Key infrastructure such as electricity, water, communications, and currency, as well as fiscal tariffs, are almost all in the hands of the Israeli government. Once the relationship is tense, Israel will interrupt the transfer of funds, resulting in the Palestinian government not even being able to pay wages.
While the “two-state plan” remains the direction the international community is pursuing, Palestine faces great difficulties from the geographical, economic to sovereign level.
The fundamental crux lies in the land dispute: Palestine advocates "from the river to the sea", and Israel also has a "Greater Israel Plan", which believes that this land is the "Promised Land" given by God to the Jewish nation in the Bible. Both sides adhere to their own historical and religious narratives, and there is a huge gap between strength and strength. The strong side lacks the motivation to make concessions.
In this unequal situation, the prospect of the "two-state solution" is slim, which is the fundamental reason why the Palestinian-Israeli conflict cannot be resolved for a long time.
On Thursday, Palestinian children in a refugee camp in the central Gaza Strip celebrated the news of a ceasefire agreement.
5. Moderator: During the signing of this peace agreement, Middle Eastern countries such as Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar all participated as guarantor countries. What role did they play in negotiation and implementation? What role will it play in the future reconstruction of Gaza?
Wang Xinyao: Since September, the three countries have their own division of labor in ceasefire negotiations and agreement implementation, which is irreplaceable.
Egypt:All the time appearing as a mediator. Israel's military advance may extrapolate Gaza refugees to the Sinai Peninsula and directly touch Egypt's national security, so Egypt actively mediated during the ceasefire process. The negotiations were mainly held in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. Egypt took advantage of its traditional ties and geographical advantages with Palestine and Israel to provide a platform for direct dialogue. More importantly, Rafah Border Crossing is completely controlled by it and is the only lifeline between Gaza and the outside world. Humanitarian assistance and personnel flow need to be coordinated by Egypt. In the future reconstruction stage, Egypt will still undertake core responsibilities such as material transfer and order restoration.
Qatar:It has long pursued independent diplomacy and is one of the few countries that can maintain communication with Hamas and Israel at the same time. Hamas's political office is based in Doha, making Qatar a key diplomatic intermediary. Qatar has confirmed that the terms of the agreement and the implementation mechanism have reached a consensus, and it is expected that Qatar will continue its traditional role of providing financial and material assistance and infrastructure restoration. In the past, it has distributed family allowances, electricity and fuel subsidies to the people of Gaza, and may lead water supply, power supply, hospital reconstruction and other projects in the future.
Turkey:Play a more direct role at the technical and security levels. Although trade with Israel has been suspended, it is still deeply involved in negotiations and will participate in the multinational joint monitoring mechanism to supervise the implementation of the agreement. With its strength in infrastructure construction, Turkey may become an important contractor of housing, roads and public facilities in the reconstruction of Gaza.
In general, Together, Egypt, Qatar and Turkey form a complete closed loop from negotiation to implementation to reconstruction, providing key guarantees for ceasefire and long-term stabilityIt also reflects the tendency in the Middle East to promote regional autonomous security systems and reduce Western intervention.Whether Gaza can genuine peace and reconstruction still depends on whether a sustained Arab security consensus can be formed between Middle Eastern countries.