Two weeks before the opening of the APEC Summit in Gyeongju, South Korea, a moderate diplomatic "hiccup" brought the anxieties and calculations of the South Korean Lee Jae-ming government to the table.
On October 13, South Korea's Foreign Minister, Zhao Zhao, suddenly threw a keynote speech at a congressional meeting: “China will personally visit South Korea and attend the upcoming APEC Summit in Changzhou.”
Besides speaking, he is also looking forward to using this opportunity to promote exchanges between the Chinese and South Korean leaders.
Interestingly, on this side, South Korea shouted the "good news" so that the entire network knew, but the Chinese side was half-moving, not acknowledging, not denying, and looked so quietly.
Everyone can see that Korea is playing the trick of "first killing the back": Obviously, the itinerary at the head of state level has to be discussed by both sides, but they insist on setting the tone first, trying to turn "China will come" into a fait accompli.
It's just that South Korea has forgotten that China has never eaten the practice of "forced by public opinion", and it will not be led by others.
South Korea’s Public Opinion Trap
Why is South Korea in a hurry to "arrange an itinerary" for China?
In the end, it is their own days that have gone too hard, these years of China-Korea relations are like sitting on a mountain car, politically cold and cold, but economically dead-dead - South Korea's money bag, can not be separated from the Chinese market at all.
Go to the South Korean Samsung, SK Healy factory turn a round and know that the raw materials stacked next to the production line, ten out of eighty-nine are shipped from China; in the workshop assembled good semiconductors, batteries, more than half to be sent to China.
Last year, the South Korean Ministry of Industry and Commerce Resources data was more straightforward: South Korea relies more than 90% on China for key things such as secondary battery materials and rare metals, and even relies on China for 98% supply of some materials.
In other words, if China moves slightly on export licenses, the production lines of these large companies in South Korea will have to "stop", and Li's support rate in the government is likely to fall.
In addition to the economy, South Korea has more diplomatic difficulties.
The United States is pressuring in the ear every day, for a moment for South Korea to block China in the chip field, and for a moment for South Korea to engage in military alliances, forcing South Korea to choose a side.
China and North Korea's relations are getting closer and closer, before the North Korean parade, China sent a senior delegation to go, South Korea looks hot and eager, afraid of its position in Northeast Asia being marginalized, and more afraid that the United States sees itself as a "chess that can be changed at any time".
Therefore, Li Zai-ming wanted to use the APEC summit to "break the situation": if senior Chinese officials can come, they can not only prove to the outside world that "South Korea still has influence," act as a "coordinator" between China and the United States, but also stabilize China's market and give domestic companies reassurance.
But the method they chose is too eager for quick success and instant benefit, and they want to use public opinion to set up the Chinese side. If they come, it will be "the achievement contributed by South Korea", and if they don't come, it will be "the Chinese side will not give face".
This small calculation has long been seen by China.
China is not normally.
South Korea is still waiting to see the drama of "China's statement", but China has given the answer with practical actions, not a verbal protest or a diplomatic statement, but a direct "hard move".
On October 14, the day after the South Korean Foreign Minister made the remarks, China's Ministry of Commerce announced: We implemented countermeasures against Hanwha Marine Corporation and its five American affiliates and prohibited organizations and individuals in China from doing any transactions with them.
It is not small to say, it is one of the three giants of South Korea's shipbuilding, formerly a shipbuilder of the ocean, and also holds a lot of orders in the U.S. defense and energy fields, and is tightly bound to American enterprises.
The five subsidiaries sanctioned this time are all registered in the United States. They have previously done an inappropriate thing to help the United States conduct a 301 investigation against China's shipbuilding industry. They provided funds and handed over technical information, which is equivalent to handing the United States a "knife" in the Sino-US game.
The Chinese side's heavy blow was accurate and measured. It didn't target the whole economy of South Korea, nor did it implicate other innocent enterprises, so it stared at those companies that "danced with the United States". You're not trying to force me by public opinion? I won't argue with you, let me show you directly: China's diplomatic rhythm has always been set by itself; Whoever dares to help others harm China's interests, no matter which country's enterprise it is, will have to pay the price.
South Korea immediately panicked, on the evening of October 14, the South Korean presidential chamber was in a hurry to respond, saying that "these companies and China's transactions are not large, and the impact is limited", and said that they should respond through economic and trade channels.
Hangzhou Ocean has a lot of supply chain cooperation in China, once the transaction is banned, upstream and downstream enterprises are affected; more importantly, South Korea is clear that China is not a simple commercial counterattack, but is in the alarm clock, don't think a little bit of smart can be confused, really want to cooperate, you have to take practical action.
Li Ziming's "Dilemma"
Li Ziming's current situation is, to put it bluntly,"riding a tiger is difficult to get down". When he came to power, he said that he would pursue "pragmatic diplomacy" and would not choose sides between China and the United States, but reality did not give him this opportunity.
Domestic pro-American forces are deeply rooted, financial ventures are tied to American interests, and politicians shout “follow the United States” every day; but pragmatists are also reminding him that if China is really stuck, the South Korean economy will be over.
Last year, South Korea's exports declined, many companies have been cutting jobs, if they lose the Chinese market, the resentment of the people will only be heavier.
This time the Chinese sanctions, in fact, to Li in Ming said a wake-up: don't play "two faces" anymore, the mouth said to repair China-Korea relations, while allowing enterprises to help the United States to suppress China, this "wants to take advantage of cheap and don't want to pay" good thing, there is not.
The Chinese-American game is not a "Ghost Fight", South Korea must be put up as a "helper", and in the end it will only become a "canon". before the U.S. charges high port charges on Chinese ships, China directly counter to the "special port charges".
Now that South Korean companies are helping the United States conduct investigations, China has imposed precise sanctions. China's attitude has always been clear: the door to cooperation will always be open, but the prerequisite is "respect" and "not taking sides."
If you really want to have a good talk with China, then we can sit down and talk about economy and cooperation; But if he still wants to force China to submit by "cutting first and playing later" and using enterprises as "pawns" to harm China's interests, then Li Zaiming should really give up-this road won't work.
conclusion
There is still some time before the APEC summit, and South Korea still has the opportunity to change its course. However, if Lee Jae-myung still holds "fluky psychology" and continues to swing between China and the United States, I'm afraid he will lose not only the "face" of a summit, but also the future economic lifeline of South Korea.
After all, China has never lacked partners, but South Korea can no longer stand an "economic winter".