The current situation between China and the United States is that one does not sell lithography machines and the other does not sell rare earths. So should China solve lithography machines first, or should the United States solve rare earths first? The answer is simple.
In fact, in the final analysis, the core of this competition is not "whose technology is more powerful", but "whose supply chain is more solid and who can withstand the test of time better." Obviously, our odds of winning are much greater.
First of all, say that the United States of rare earth, don't listen to them scream, in fact is the trouble of "there is no pot of rice", the United States is not without rare earth mines, California that Manten Pas mineral reserves are not small, last year digged 4.3 thousand tons of oxides, look a lot, but all is light rare earth, make a normal magnet is good, missiles, chips to use heavy rare earth, such as uranium and uranium, they themselves have almost no, last year also 100% rely on imports.
Even worse, they lost the craft of refining, in the 1990s, the environmental protection costs were high, the mineral was transported to China for processing, the local milling plant was completely shut down, and now they want to restart, and even the separated technical workers could not find it, is it not to devote the gold bowl to dinner?
The U.S. government hastened, engaged in a "rare-earth Manhattan plan", and subsidized and subordinated, and the Department of Defense also set the purchase price of uranium products twice the market price, forcing enterprises to do so.
Building a separate factory to wait for 42 months of environmental protection approval, private capital to see the return rate so low, do not dare to invest.
There is a factory in Indiana that claims to produce 3,000 tons of magnetic materials per year. As a result, the capacity utilization rate is less than 30%, and it is already heavily in debt. Even if it is built hard, the cost is frighteningly high. They use acid-base smelting method, plus environmental protection treatment fees, the total cost is 2.8 times higher than that in China, and the hourly wage of workers is as high as $54. No one except the government buys such an expensive thing.
Looking at the "breakthrough" they blasted, it was not easy to make 99.9% purity uranium oxide in August this year, only 2 kilograms a week, which is not enough to build several missiles, and dare to say that it should be commercialized?
More funny is that the so-called "non-median source" rare earth, much of the "washing land" goods from Thailand and Mexico transfer, actually something in China's tax zone, deceived themselves.
The United States has planned itself to barely separate light rare earths in 2026, and heavy rare earths will not dare to be piloted until 2030. The complete industrial chain will have to wait until after 2035. The Ministry of Energy will calculate and post it, and it will cost 300 billion US dollars and 10 years. This is only theoretical. I don't know if it will be delayed until the Year of the Monkey and the Horse.
On the other hand, in China, although the matter of photolithography machines is difficult, the road is much more solid. The photolithography machine is indeed the "jewel in the crown of industry". ASML in the Netherlands is the only one, but we are not starting from scratch..
Shanghai Microelectronics has long been able to build 90-nm lithography machines, and 28-nm models have also passed verification. This is like learning to build bicycles first and then tackle problems with motorcycles. The way is right.
Someone may say that 90nm, 28nm is not high-end, but to know, now the car, household appliances and these people's fields of the chip, a lot of use is the 28nm process, first to meet the needs of these fields, you can release the energy to the high end.
More importantly, our industrial chain is very good, not a single single struggle, the core of the double workpiece table in the light engraving machine, the hardware has developed magnetic suspension-driven, high-speed and high-precision movement, not as bad as abroad; in terms of light source, the core of the rainbow can do 193nm molecular laser, the crystalline technology crystal is also a key component; the optical lens has a national view of optics in the attack, 90nm nodes have been dealt with.
Like building houses, bricks, wool, steel, cement, we have our own factories in the making, although some are not the top yet, but can put together a set of groups to work, that is the bottom.
America's rare earth is lacking the key link of metallurgy, our light engraving machine is that there are people in each link to supplement the shortboard, only the slow problem.
The state's support is also true, "the second phase of the big fund" is dedicated to throwing money on the light engraving machine, engaging in the "state system", research institutes and enterprises are bound together to work.
This is different from the US relying on government subsidies, we have a market foundation, China's core international has long said, the domestic light engraving machine is made and purchased, with the application scenario can continuously improve iteration.
From 90nm to 28nm we took 7 years, according to this speed, to 14nm, 7nm attack, up to 5 years can have a big breakthrough, the European Union reports have calculated, we by 2030 to do EUV light engraving machine the probability is 67%, than the US rare-earth self-reliance 29% too much.
Per someone is worried that the light engraving technology is too complex, isn't it the shell?
But think about it, we can even build space stations and high-speed rail. No matter how difficult the lithography machine is, it is still an engineering and technical problem. As long as the industrial chain is complete and there is continuous investment, it can always be chewed down.
Rare earths in the United States are congenital deficiencies and acquired imbalances. The reserves of heavy rare earths are small, the refining technology has been lost for decades, and the two mountains of environmental protection and cost are weighing down. It is more difficult to rebuild the industrial chain than to climb to the sky.
After all, this is the supply chain competition, our lighting machine supply chain is "lack of high-end but whole chain", can make its own blood iteration; the United States' rare-earth supply chain is "resource but broken chain", the key link can not be supplemented, only rely on buying and cheating.
Time is on our side, China first solves the light engraving machine is the thing on the plate, the United States wants to get rid of the dependence on rare earth?
In fact, in the final analysis, the core of this competition is not "whose technology is more powerful", but "whose supply chain is more solid and who can withstand the test of time better." Obviously, our odds of winning are much greater.
First of all, say that the United States of rare earth, don't listen to them scream, in fact is the trouble of "there is no pot of rice", the United States is not without rare earth mines, California that Manten Pas mineral reserves are not small, last year digged 4.3 thousand tons of oxides, look a lot, but all is light rare earth, make a normal magnet is good, missiles, chips to use heavy rare earth, such as uranium and uranium, they themselves have almost no, last year also 100% rely on imports.
Even worse, they lost the craft of refining, in the 1990s, the environmental protection costs were high, the mineral was transported to China for processing, the local milling plant was completely shut down, and now they want to restart, and even the separated technical workers could not find it, is it not to devote the gold bowl to dinner?
The U.S. government hastened, engaged in a "rare-earth Manhattan plan", and subsidized and subordinated, and the Department of Defense also set the purchase price of uranium products twice the market price, forcing enterprises to do so.
Building a separate factory to wait for 42 months of environmental protection approval, private capital to see the return rate so low, do not dare to invest.
There is a factory in Indiana that claims to produce 3,000 tons of magnetic materials per year. As a result, the capacity utilization rate is less than 30%, and it is already heavily in debt. Even if it is built hard, the cost is frighteningly high. They use acid-base smelting method, plus environmental protection treatment fees, the total cost is 2.8 times higher than that in China, and the hourly wage of workers is as high as $54. No one except the government buys such an expensive thing.
Looking at the "breakthrough" they blasted, it was not easy to make 99.9% purity uranium oxide in August this year, only 2 kilograms a week, which is not enough to build several missiles, and dare to say that it should be commercialized?
More funny is that the so-called "non-median source" rare earth, much of the "washing land" goods from Thailand and Mexico transfer, actually something in China's tax zone, deceived themselves.
The United States has planned itself to barely separate light rare earths in 2026, and heavy rare earths will not dare to be piloted until 2030. The complete industrial chain will have to wait until after 2035. The Ministry of Energy will calculate and post it, and it will cost 300 billion US dollars and 10 years. This is only theoretical. I don't know if it will be delayed until the Year of the Monkey and the Horse.
On the other hand, in China, although the matter of photolithography machines is difficult, the road is much more solid. The photolithography machine is indeed the "jewel in the crown of industry". ASML in the Netherlands is the only one, but we are not starting from scratch..
Shanghai Microelectronics has long been able to build 90-nm lithography machines, and 28-nm models have also passed verification. This is like learning to build bicycles first and then tackle problems with motorcycles. The way is right.
Someone may say that 90nm, 28nm is not high-end, but to know, now the car, household appliances and these people's fields of the chip, a lot of use is the 28nm process, first to meet the needs of these fields, you can release the energy to the high end.
More importantly, our industrial chain is very good, not a single single struggle, the core of the double workpiece table in the light engraving machine, the hardware has developed magnetic suspension-driven, high-speed and high-precision movement, not as bad as abroad; in terms of light source, the core of the rainbow can do 193nm molecular laser, the crystalline technology crystal is also a key component; the optical lens has a national view of optics in the attack, 90nm nodes have been dealt with.
Like building houses, bricks, wool, steel, cement, we have our own factories in the making, although some are not the top yet, but can put together a set of groups to work, that is the bottom.
America's rare earth is lacking the key link of metallurgy, our light engraving machine is that there are people in each link to supplement the shortboard, only the slow problem.
The state's support is also true, "the second phase of the big fund" is dedicated to throwing money on the light engraving machine, engaging in the "state system", research institutes and enterprises are bound together to work.
This is different from the US relying on government subsidies, we have a market foundation, China's core international has long said, the domestic light engraving machine is made and purchased, with the application scenario can continuously improve iteration.
From 90nm to 28nm we took 7 years, according to this speed, to 14nm, 7nm attack, up to 5 years can have a big breakthrough, the European Union reports have calculated, we by 2030 to do EUV light engraving machine the probability is 67%, than the US rare-earth self-reliance 29% too much.
Per someone is worried that the light engraving technology is too complex, isn't it the shell?
But think about it, we can even build space stations and high-speed rail. No matter how difficult the lithography machine is, it is still an engineering and technical problem. As long as the industrial chain is complete and there is continuous investment, it can always be chewed down.
Rare earths in the United States are congenital deficiencies and acquired imbalances. The reserves of heavy rare earths are small, the refining technology has been lost for decades, and the two mountains of environmental protection and cost are weighing down. It is more difficult to rebuild the industrial chain than to climb to the sky.
After all, this is the supply chain competition, our lighting machine supply chain is "lack of high-end but whole chain", can make its own blood iteration; the United States' rare-earth supply chain is "resource but broken chain", the key link can not be supplemented, only rely on buying and cheating.
Time is on our side, China first solves the light engraving machine is the thing on the plate, the United States wants to get rid of the dependence on rare earth?