Under the new round of trade war between China and the United States, China preemptively disrupted the position of the United States. Trump's soft and hard tactics didn't work, and he threatened to scale things up and end part of the trade with China?
Since China issued the new rare earth regulations on October 9th, Trump has probably been sitting uneasy. After the Madrid negotiations, the United States did not gradually change its sanctions against China in accordance with the spirit of the negotiations. Instead, it made some small moves from time to time. Trump's method of using carrots to force China to relinquish failed, and in the end now angry and angry, claiming to consider terminating part of the trade relationship with China.
According to Observer.com, on October 14, local time, Trump posted another message on social platforms threatening China. He said that China "deliberately does not buy" American soybeans, which is an "economic hostile act". "In retaliation," Trump considered terminating some edible oil trade related to China, or other trade.
Trump seems to think this is very reasonable and effective. He also gave an example that the United States can easily produce edible oil independently without buying it from China. Trump said it with all sincerity, but can the United States really do this, and can it really be effective?
U.S. soybeans tariff problem has emerged since July of this year, when Trump screamed to China, asking China to buy more U.S. soybeans. but China until now in mid-October, still has not imported U.S. soybeans, large imports from South America, Argentina, Brazil and other countries.
American soybean farmers can only stare, and industry associations have been urging Trump to talk to China. Now that a new round of trade war between China and the United States is underway, it is even more difficult for China to buy American soybeans. Even if Trump threatens to terminate some trade with China, China will not give in.
At the same time, it should be noted that Trump has played a clever text game here. He claims that he does not import cooking oil from China. In fact, the United States does not import cooking oil for food, but recycled cooking oil (used cooking oil, UCO)。
This class of recycled edible oil is commonly used in biofuel processing and industrial applicationsIn recent years, the United States 'UCO imports of recycled edible oil from China have increased significantly and have become a part of the industrial chain. Reuters reported in August 2024 that the United States imported China waste edible oil to a record high. The demand and growth rate for such oil in the United States are much higher than the supply in the United States。
As of June 2024, U.S. imports from China have recycled 60% of its imports.If the United States stops its edible oil trade with China now, the United States will lose a lot of raw materials for biofuels. In the short term, the internal waste oil suppliers in the United States may usher in a wave of dividends, but after that, the entire industry chain will have big problems.
This could lead to a shortage of fuel in the United States. Downstream processing chains have been implicated, and biofuel manufacturers have reduced production and processing volumes, leading to short-term industrial contractions and layoffs, which is even worse news for Trump.
Moreover, many of these waste oils are soybean oil and rapeseed oil. If Trump implements such a retaliatory policy on the grounds that China does not buy American soybeans, it will cause the global market to fluctuate in the short term, especially soybean oil and other vegetable oils. Soybeans, as raw materials, will be even more affected. Soybean exporters such as Brazil and Argentina in South America will benefit indirectly. They can more naturally fill the gap in the China soybean market.
Therefore, Trump's threat, like the 100% tariff, is more of a statement. Whether it can be implemented is uncertain and likely will not be implemented.。 He says so now, in fact, more Or to reassure the soybean farmers who support him., to let these voters see that he is still working hard for the interests of soybean farmers. As for whether it is effective or not, it is difficult for these voters to see clearly under the Trump administration's propaganda offensive.
At the same time, Trump also continued to add codes to the US-China negotiations. Public threats to create a sense of urgency in negotiations and new codes, telling China he has the means. Even if he really banned the trade in eaten oil, it could only be a short-term order, the United States is in many ways inseparable from China.
So, in fact, it can be seen that Trump can play a lot of cards. Every sanction he imposes on China can lead to China's counter-reaction, while also causing harm to the United States itself.