(Original title: Hamas begins to regain control of Gaza: liquidating opponents, Trump says he has received verbal guarantees of disarmament)

The Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) is regaining control of the Gaza Strip as the Gaza ceasefire comes into effect.

On October 12th, in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Palestinians returning to their homes stood in the rubble. The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip entered its third day on the 12th. Xinhua News Agency (photo by Rizek Abduljawad)

Since October 11, local time, Hamas security forces have returned to Gaza City in the northern Gaza Strip and set up checkpoints across the Gaza Strip. Social media videos show Hamas security forces patrolling the streets of Gaza City and interacting with people. In addition, towns in the Gaza Strip under Hamas control have begun to clear debris and reopen roads.

The Palestinian Home Front, a social network affiliated with Hamas, issued a statement on Monday saying: ¡°A number of ¡®co-workers¡¯ and ¡®lineers¡¯ have been arrested and arrested on suspicion of espionage for enemies and the assassination of several members of resistance groups,¡± while stating that ¡°security services and resistance forces are conducting large-scale field operations across the Gaza Strip from north to south to find and arrest collaborators and lineers.¡±

The Interior Ministry of the Gaza Strip, led by Hamas, announced a one-week amnesty for members of criminal gangs who "did not participate in bloodshed and killing" starting from the 13th. Hamas also asked all rival armed groups to lay down their arms and surrender to Hamas within 48 hours. "Any armed activities beyond the framework of resistance will be resolutely cracked down."

Hamas has not yet publicly agreed or signed any specific provisions on how to disarm its agreement, but U.S. President Donald Trump said on 14th that he had received verbal assurances that the group would disarm itself.

According to the Financial Times, Hamas¡¯s swift return to control of the Gaza Strip suggests that despite its military capabilities being severely weakened, it still has the ability to take power in the Gaza Strip and hold a superior position in the post-war Gaza negotiation process. Palestinian analyst Reham Oda said Hamas¡¯ actions were aimed at deterring organizations cooperating with Israel, while suggesting that its security officials should be part of the new government.

Daniel Levy, a former Israeli peace representative and head of the US/Middle East Project think tank, said that Hamas is likely to become a part of Palestinian politics in the future, but the key is whether an inclusive and unified political process will occur in the future, which is credible to the Palestinian people.

Restoring control of parts of Gaza

According to news from Hamas¡¯ social media accounts, Gaza¡¯s Ministry of Internal Affairs security forces are operating in several areas of the Gaza Strip. In Gaza City, members of the masked security forces are searching for vehicles to find weapons. In Khan Yunis, local militias are negotiating with Hamas to hand over weapons to Hamas.

A Hamas military officer told Qatar Arab TV Network on the 11th that Hamas has completed its deployment in all areas where Israeli troops have withdrawn. "Our basic task is to restore control until Gaza residents feel protected-from suffering, roads being blocked and anyone who tries to harm them." The officer also said Hamas's task now includes confiscating weapons from "fugitives", sending messages to the families of the dead and mediating disputes.

According to a report by the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) on the 12th, citing sources, Hamas has recalled 7000 members of the security forces. But the Hamas-led Gaza government's media office denied the claim, while also denying that the group was "deploying military personnel on the streets."

Gaza Strip security sources announced on the 13th that security forces have completely taken control of the armed militia in Gaza City and launched large-scale search operations in areas where their members are active. An anonymous Gaza Strip Interior Ministry official and the Gaza Strip medical department said eight Hamas members and 19 Dughmush tribal militants were killed in the conflict. The Times of Israel reported that 60 Dukhush tribesmen had been arrested and sent to security services for interrogation.

Hamas subsidiary social accounts previously that security forces broke out in the Gaza city's Sabra region with armed gangs affiliated with the Dohmus tribe, two Hamas members were killed, and the famous Palestinian journalist Saleh Jafarabi was unfortunately killed in the conflict.

Al Jazeera pointed out that the Duhmush tribe is one of the most prominent tribes in the Gaza Strip, and its members are spread across all political factions in the Gaza Strip. It was previously reported that some members of the tribe had ties with Israel, but it was denied by the leaders of the tribe.

Hunting anti-Hamas armed groups

Since last year, Hamas¡¯ rule over the Gaza Strip has been challenged by Israeli-backed armed groups. In the southern Gaza Strip, the ¡°Popular Forces¡± group refused to lay down weapons. The group said in a statement that it ¡°will continue to remain in the territory around Rafah,¡± ¡°defend our land,¡± and ¡°has no intention of leaving the Gaza Strip.¡±

The Israeli Army publicly acknowledged in June that the group provided weapons and training support. For a long time, the group has been notorious in the Gaza Strip for carrying out organized crime activities. According to Palestinian and international humanitarian officials, the group has systematically robbed humanitarian aid vehicles going across the Gaza Strip and profited by selling back aid materials.

Hussein Ashtar, commander of the Armed Forces in Khan Unis, said the group would "fight with Hamas until Hamas is destroyed." Ashtar also said it would work with former British Prime Minister Tony Blair to replace Hamas' rule in the Gaza Strip. Ashtar served as an officer in the security forces of the Palestinian National Authority but was accused of cooperating with Israel in the 1990s.

According to a report by Saudi Arabia's "Middle East News" on the 11th, Hamas security forces have been redeployed to the Jabalia area and are hunting down members of anti-Hamas armed groups there. A Hamas security official said they were pursuing the Abu-Shabab militant group. "Security operations will continue to escalate until the problem is completely resolved."

According to CNN and the Israeli Times, members of the Israeli armed group Ashir Abu-Shabaab have been transferred to the Israeli-controlled zone on the other side of the Yellow Line.

Is Hamas's role irreplaceable?

Ismail Tawaabta, head of Hamas's Gaza government media office, said the organization would not allow a security vacuum and would maintain public safety and property security. Hamas previously said the organization would shoulder the responsibility of "strengthening security and stability and protecting citizens 'rights."

When asked about reports that Hamas is striking adversaries to regain control of parts of Gaza, U.S. President Trump said Hamas is acting within the framework of a ceasefire agreement and that he has authorized Hamas to "manage Gaza's internal security on its own" under existing agreements.

¡°They really want to stop these issues, they¡¯re open about it, and we¡¯ve given them approval for a while... Now there are two million people going back to those buildings that have been demolished, and a lot of bad things can happen.So we want everything ¨C we want everything safe, I think everything will be fine, who knows,¡± Trump said.

Trump also said on the 14th that he had received verbal assurances that Hamas was willing to disarm. "Everyone said,'Oh, well, they're not going to disarm.' They will disarm." Trump said at the White House event with Argentine President Millay,"I talked to Hamas and I said,'You will disarm, right?' Yes, sir, we will disarm.' That's what they told me. Either they disarm, or we disarm them. Do you understand?"

Under Trump's "20-point plan" for the Gaza peace process, Hamas must disarm and at the same time give up its rule over the Gaza Strip. The plan also states that the Gaza Strip will be demilitarized "under the supervision of independent monitors", after which an "International Stabilization Force" (ISF) will replace Hamas in providing "training and support to vetted Palestinian police forces". According to CNN, Egypt and Jordan will play a leading role in the process of training and supervising the force.

"A key question for Hamas is whether it will actually disarm." "They will resist because guess what, resistance is its middle name, literally," Brian Katuris, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, told the Washington Post. Katuris refers to Hamas 'full Arabic name-"Islamic Resistance Movement."

Daral Irikat, associate professor in the Department of Social Sciences at the Arab American University in Palestine and columnist for the Palestinian newspaper Al-Quds, told the paper that demilitarization or regrouping must be linked to governance reform, rule of law and economic recovery, rather than collective punishment. "If a credible political track and governance model emerge in Palestine, Hamas's role will be weakened and its political space will shrink. But Palestine lacks legitimate alternative options, alternative to reconstruction (Gaza), and in this case, trying to eliminate Hamas militarily will repeat the mistakes of (war)." he said.

The Israeli Times analyzed that the first phase of the ceasefire agreement reached by the two sides did not mention post-war governance in Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has announced that he will not allow Hamas or the Palestinian Authority to play a role after the war.

Moine Hirou, a resident of Gaza City, said on Monday that he saw members of Hamas organizing traffic and markets in the central part of the Gaza Strip and that they (Hamas) are here, you can¡¯t deny.

Extended reading

On the occasion of the two-year anniversary of the Gaza conflict, Hamas and Israel reached a phase-first ceasefire agreement.

The first phase ceasefire agreement is the first half of the "20-point plan" put forward by US President Trump, and the "20-point plan" is a comprehensive, comprehensive and lasting peace plan, which has been agreed in principle by both the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and Israel. If the "20-point plan" can be fully implemented, it means that the war in Gaza will be completely ended, and it can even lay the foundation for Palestinian statehood and the implementation of the "two-state solution". But if only the first half of the "20-point plan" can be implemented, the Gaza war will enter a new stage.

In any case, it is now a timely opportunity to pinpoint war losses and investigate war trends.

On October 13, in Tel Aviv, Israel, people watched the release of Hamas detainees via the big screen.

Losing the battlefield.

From the perspective of absolute losses in people, money and goods, war is a lose-lose game. No party has any gain. The key depends on who loses more. The comparison is relative losses. The party with the greater relative losses is the loser. No matter how you evaluate it, Hamas and the people of Gaza suffered more and greater losses in the Gaza War, and they were the undisputed losers on the battlefield.

According to the estimates of the Israeli Defense Army, Hamas had about 20,000 fighters before the war, a total of 24 established camp units, and tens of thousands of rockets. The Israeli Defense Army announced in January 2025 that Israel killed 20,000 Hamas fighters, since then Israel has not updated the data. Hamas has not announced the casualties of its fighters, nor has it announced the current combat force, but said the figures published by Israel are exaggerated.

At the same time, according to Israel, almost all middle and senior leaders of Hamas were targeted and killed, and at least 22 of the 24 battalions were scattered or defeated. Hamas neither denied nor acknowledged it. Judging from Hamas's battlefield performance, it is an indisputable fact that its combat effectiveness has suffered heavy setbacks. On October 7, 2023, Hamas fired more than 5,000 rockets into Israel in one day; On October 7, 2024, Hamas fired 14 rockets into Israel in one day; On October 7, 2025, Hamas fired only one rocket into Israel a day. In contrast, the death toll among Israeli soldiers is much lower. According to the latest data released by Israel, since Israel launched its offensive on Gaza on October 27, 2023, 466 Israeli soldiers have died. Including the Israeli soldiers killed by Hamas on October 7, the total death toll is 913.

In terms of civilian casualties, the gap between Gaza and Israel is even greater. The Israeli civilian deaths are 900, the vast majority of which were killed on the same day on 7 October 2023. On the same day, Hamas took 251 Israeli hostages, generating a total of 100,000 refugees. If the recent first phase of ceasefire agreement could be smoothly implemented, Israel by negotiation exchanged 160 hostages, the Defense Army rescued eight by military means, and 86 hostages died. According to data released by the Gaza Health Department, as of 7 October 2025, 6,160 people died in Gaza, representing 3% of the total population of Gaza, of which 1,200 households were filled with extinctions, including a family of 14; 16,9679 were wounded by the Defense Army, of which

In terms of the social and economic impact of the war, the contrast between Gaza and Israel is even wider. Gaza's society and economy have almost completely collapsed, and schools, hospitals and public utility services have disappeared. Before the war, 80% of Gazans relied on international aid to live, but Gaza has basic agriculture and fisheries, and can even export some agricultural products. At present, all agriculture and fisheries are destroyed, and there is no productive capacity. The findings of the United Nations agency show that Gaza is in a state of famine, and 500,000 people are in famine. As of September 2025, at least 460 people have been confirmed to have died of hunger and malnutrition, including 154 children. According to the statistics of Gaza's health department, 94% of hospitals were damaged or destroyed, more than 1,700 medical workers were killed, and hundreds more were detained.

Current situation in Gaza

In Israel, although the economy has been negatively affected to a certain extent, the financial and fiscal indexes are still strong. Israel's gross domestic product (GDP) growth has slowed from highs of 8.6% in 2021 and 6.5% in 2022 to 0.9% in 2024, and the growth rate in 2025 is estimated at 2.5%, but the local currency, the new shekel, is trading at 3.25 against the US dollar, appreciating nearly 20%, the benchmark index of the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange has risen nearly 300%, and Israel has also raised a record $13 billion from international markets in the past two years. Israel's war losses since October 2023 have reached US $43 billion, but its debt has only risen from 61% of GDP in 2023 to 70% in 2025, and the economy has shown no obvious signs of recession.

In terms of territory, Hamas raided 25 kilometers within Israel on October 7, 2023, controlling seven Israeli communities, but two days later all Hamas personnel were expelled.

Political losing

War is the continuation of politics, serving and obeying politics. From a political perspective, it is not as clear as to who will win, Hamas and Israel, as it is on the battlefield. The war between Hamas and Israel is an asymmetric war, and the standards used by both sides to determine victory and defeat are vastly different. For Hamas, despite the heavy losses, if the regime and army in Gaza can survive the war, it will be a major victory. Even if the regime and army are destroyed and the fighters can survive, if they can make a comeback in the future, it will not be a complete loss. As a developed and sovereign country, Israel can only be regarded as what Netanyahu calls a "complete victory","complete victory" and "absolute victory" if it completely eliminates Hamas. Judging from the current situation, Israel has the advantage, but Israel has not won completely and Hamas has not lost completely.

At present, there is a high probability that Hamas will survive, and even the possibility of Hamas's army and regime survival cannot be ruled out. Although 20,000 Hamas people have been eliminated, there are reports that Hamas has recruited another 20,000 people. Judging from Hamas's performance in ceasefire negotiations and ceasefire implementation, Hamas inside and outside Gaza is still able to smooth orders, which shows that Hamas's command and execution system is still complete. Judging from the two recent temporary ceasefires, Hamas 'administrative and police agencies still exist in Gaza. During each ceasefire period, Hamas personnel were quickly able to turn from underground to the ground and begin to restore social order. In the past two years, Israel has not achieved its goal of eliminating Hamas, and it is unlikely that it will fully achieve its goal in the future.

The three main goals of the war have been achieved by Israel, one of which can only be said to be a small victory. At the beginning of the war, Israel has defined three main goals: either to completely destroy Hamas; secondly, to rescue all the detainees; thirdly, to permanently eliminate Gaza¡¯s security threat to Israel. So far, if the detainees can go home smoothly, one of the Israeli goals is perfectly achieved. On the issue of destroying Hamas, or Israel hopes to implement the ¡°20-point plan¡±, let Hamas actively disarm and destroy itself; or after the first phase of the ceasefire agreement, Israel has again launched a large-scale Gaza war, destroying Hamas by means of war.

In terms of the international situation, both sides are very difficult, but Hamas is in a more difficult situation. Since the beginning of this year, Israel has been isolated by the international community. Even European countries that have always supported Israel have begun to condemn and sanction Israel. Even public opinion in the United States has developed in a direction not conducive to Israel. However, Hamas is more isolated than Israel. Recently, the international community, including Arab countries, generally asked Hamas to do three things: first, release all detainees; The second is disarmament; Third, it cannot participate in the management of Gaza after the war. This is actually consistent with Israel's war goal, which is to completely eliminate Hamas and allow Hamas to destroy itself.

Life and death game

The situation in Gaza is currently at a critical crossroads, and there are possibilities for both war and peace. For Hamas, its life as an armed force, a regime and a social organization is facing a severe test, and almost the entire world calls for the elimination of Hamas. Israel's far-right National Security Minister Ben Gweir has threatened to destroy Israel's government if Netanyahu does not continue to destroy Hamas's rule in Gaza. For Israel, Hamas no longer has the strength to threaten Israel's survival. Israel as a country has no life and death issues, but the Israeli government is facing life and death. The battle between Hamas and Israel is not over. With the launch of the second phase of negotiations on the "20-point plan", there are three possibilities for the future.

Scenario 1: The two sides completely collapsed, and a larger and more tragic war ensued. There are many difficulties in the second phase of negotiations, including the establishment of the transitional government in Gaza, the reform of the Palestinian National Authority and the establishment of Palestinian statehood. But three issues are very urgent: first, the disarmament of Hamas; Second, Israel ends the war forever; The third is the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. So far, there seems to be no room for compromise between Kazakhstan and Israel on these three issues.

Hamas announced that only the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and the existence of Hamas as a resistance force had no meaning to agree to disarm. Israel insisted that after Hamas had to be completely destroyed, Israel would not end the war. Even then, the Israeli army could not fully withdraw from Gaza, because Israel¡¯s goal was to permanently control Gaza¡¯s security affairs and prevent Hamas from re-emergence. If the future negotiations were not relaxed, the resumption of the war was likely. In November 2023 and January 2025, the two interim ceasefire between the two sides had also been carried out, eventually failing to transition to a permanent ceasefire, and this could also be repeated. Once this happens, the scale of the war would be greater and more tragic.

Scene 2: An unexpected surprise in the negotiations, when the two sides made the impossible possible, agreed to fully implement the ¡°20-point plan¡± and the war in Gaza was completely over. This possibility is very small, but cannot be entirely ruled out. According to the ¡°20-point plan¡±, the second phase of the procedure was: Hamas first disarm, then the Israeli army gradually withdrew from Gaza, then Gaza established a transitional regime, and eventually Gaza and the West Bank established a unified Palestinian regime for a thousand years¡± is the disarmament by Hamas, but this depends on Hamas¡¯ assessment of the situation on the battlefield. If Hamas believes that no matter whether Israel is launching a large-scale war, it is impossible to destroy Hamas as a group, it will not agree

200,000 Gaza refugees returned home.

Scenario 3: The negotiations neither completely broke down nor reached an agreement, and eventually became a half-pull project. The state of both sides was between the poles of "war" and "peace". Hamas agreed to partially and phased disarmament, complicating matters and prolonging the time, making the negotiations between the United States and Israel tasteless and a pity to abandon, and exacerbating the contradictions between the international community and the United States and Israel. Hamas can hand over its offensive heavy weapons, but it does not hand over its defensive light weapons, wandering between disarmament and non-disarmament. In this case, it is difficult for Israel to flatly refuse. If Israel refuses Hamas's concessions, all international pressure will fall to Israel's side, and the Israeli government will also face strong pressure from home.

At these points in time, Netanyahu's political life will once again play an important role. According to Israeli law, the parliament must hold general elections by October 27, 2026 at the latest, and may hold general elections as early as March 2026. Netanyahu has to consider which option is more favorable to his election results. If Israel rejects Hamas 'proposal and launches a larger Gaza war, it can win the support of right-wing parties in the cabinet and preserve the current government, but it may arouse opposition from most voters and lead to losing next year's election. If Hamas 'proposal is agreed, the two right-wing parties are likely to withdraw from the cabinet, the government may collapse, and an early election is needed. Netanyahu needs to weigh the two, especially to observe changes in domestic public opinion: Which of the two goals of "ending the war" or "eliminating Hamas", the Israeli people want more?

Perhaps Netanyahu agreed to Hamas's partial disarmament, ending the large-scale war phase, but could continue to crack down on Hamas through low-intensity military operations, similar to Israel's current military operations in the West Bank and southern Lebanon. In this way, Hamas is between disarmament and non-disarmament, the war is between end and not end, and Netanyahu is also between right and left.

These scenes are merely speculations about the Gaza war, and the establishment of a Gaza transitional government, the post-war reconstruction of Gaza, and the full withdrawal of Israel¡¯s armed forces are not on the agenda at the moment.