Source: China News Weekly
In front of more than 20 leaders of countries and international organizations, Trump repeated what he had just said during his visit to Israel.
On October 13, local time, at the Egyptian seaside resort of Sham Sheikh, U.S. President Donald Trump and the leaders of Egypt, Qatar and Turkey officially signed a ceasefire agreement on Gaza and we have jointly achieved a goal that everyone believes impossible to,” Trump said.
A day ago, under the first phase agreement reached by the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and Israel on October 9, 20 surviving hostages still held by Hamas were released, and more than 100 Palestinians detained by the Israeli government were released simultaneously.
Several border crossing points in the Gaza Strip have been opened, and humanitarian supplies under UN supervision are slowly entering. In the intermittent gunfire, tens of thousands of displaced Gaza residents back home along the Rashid Road to the north. Yet more people are still living in tents. The Israeli army has only withdrawn to the “agreed boundary”, but still controls 53 percent of the land in the Gaza Strip.
In the camp for displaced persons in Nuserat in central Gaza, local journalist Rasha, who fled south from northern Gaza City, told China Newsweek that after the news of the ceasefire was announced,"the atmosphere in the camp changed a lot. Neighbors smiled, and children chirped 'The war is over.'"
Is the war really over? One detail is that neither Hamas nor Israeli leaders appeared at the summit in Sham Sheikh, which decided on the fate and future of the Gaza people, while Palestinian President Abbas was sitting in the audience seat and was not invited to stand behind Trump. Another detail is that the documents signed by the leaders of the United States, Egypt, Qatar and Turkey did not contain any expression of “Palestinian independence” or the “two-state program”.
The leaders of the four countries are guarantors of the current ceasefire agreement. Hamas was promised that Trump ensured that the United States "would not allow" Israel to continue its large-scale military operation in Gaza after the hostages were released.
"We try to convince ourselves that peace is possible, but the pain of the past reminds us that all this may collapse again in a flash." Lasha said.
“Israel has won everything it can win.”
On October 13, the Sharm el-Sheikh summit almost became Trump's personal show. During his speech, he even temporarily asked Pakistan Prime Minister Sharif, who was standing behind him, to come forward and "say what you told me." Sharif immediately walked to the microphone and expressed his willingness to nominate Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize."He is a man who is truly committed to peace."
The situation outside the venue was not much different. In the United States, even former President Bill Clinton and Biden administration's national security adviser Sullivan have expressed "praise for President Trump." Only progressive Democratic Senator Sanders still emphasizes that the United States "must face up to the darkness in its history. page". U.S. media pointed out that since entering the White House again in January this year, Trump has received "the most positive comments from all parties" this time.
Trump was indeed a key figure in promoting the rapid achievement of a cost-wheel ceasefire agreement. In early October, after two days of negotiations between the parties and a deadlock, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and President’s special envoy Witkov came to Sham Sheikh, forcing Israel and Hamas to compromise within a day.
The media’s subsequent disclosures showed that this was a pressure with a strong Trump personal colour. Trump personally called Netanyahu, blaming the dirty words that Israel “cannot get more”. On the other hand, in front of the negotiating table, Trump’s business “old guy” and current president’s special envoy, Witkov, expressed condolences to Hamas leader Khalil Haia, whose son had just been killed in an Israeli air strike on the Hamas delegation in Qatar in early September.
Witkov told Haia that his son died of an overdose of Oscart when he was 22, "since then, I have been committed to ending the suffering of others."
These words and measures are in sharp contrast to the U.S. government’s “moderate” negotiating attitude toward Israel during Biden’s tenure and the policy of “no direct contact” with Hamas. At the time of the ceasefire, Iran Gordenberg, who served as a senior official in the White House National Security Council during Biden’s tenure, reflected that it was the “wrong signal” that Biden released that led Netanyahu to break the imminent ceasefire once before January 2025.
Goldenberg recalled that a senior IDF general once told him after a visit to the White House: "Our original plan for Gaza was to fight for three months and then stop. We thought you (the Americans) would make us stop, but you never did."
NetanyahuLater, he told Biden administration Secretary of State Blinken: "We will continue this war for decades to come. This was the case in the past and it will be the case in the future." As in the past, Biden did not respond strongly.
The turning point appeared in January this year: Trump sent Witkov to pressure Netanyahu to force Israel and Hamas to reach the first phase of the ceasefire agreement at the time, “sacrifice” for their inauguration ceremony. But the Israeli side quickly broke the agreement and escalated military operations and material blockade. Netanyahu’s “gambling” once sparked Trump’s intense discontent, but the relationship between the two was quickly restored after Israel “flashed” Iran’s nuclear facilities.
"Trump is always on the winner's side," Daniel Levy, chairman of the American Middle East Project, an American think tank and a former senior adviser to the Israeli Prime Minister's office, told China News Weekly. Netanyahu must "gamble" to the end, because a ceasefire agreement that is not enough to make far-right allies feel "victorious" means the end of Netanyahu's personal political life.
Several Israeli analysts pointed out that the rupture of the ceasefire agreement despite putting Netanyahu under greater domestic and international pressure in the short term, has now indeed come in exchange for "more advantageous" results: although the negotiating parties have different interpretations of the ceasefire agreement, most analysts believe that Hamas has made fundamental concessions in this round of negotiations.
Prior to the start of the ceasefire talks, Hamas senior official Khalid Kadumi told China News Weekly that the organization’s demands were to open access to humanitarian supplies, withdraw the Israeli army, “end genocide” and then negotiate hostages.Analysts pointed out that this was a statement of the “highest program” nature, Hamas’s real negotiating goal was “to deliver hostages and end the war”, “but the Israeli side demanded that only Hamas disarm, the war can end.”
Unlike Netanyahu, the internal and external pressure brought by the severe humanitarian situation in Gaza has left Hamas no longer the capital to "gamble." Immediately after Israel's attempted assassination attempt at their negotiating site in Qatar in early September, Hamas leaders Khalil Haya and Zahir Jabalin made no tough declarations, but quickly agreed to participate in new peace talks.
Eventually, in the first phase of the agreement, all Hamas hostages were released and Israel did not need a full withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.
“The U.S. helped Israel win everything it could win by force,” Trump said in a speech to the Israeli parliament on October 13 local time. Trump also shunned to help Netanyahu solve his most worrying political life issue: Trump turned to Israeli President Herzog, expressing hope that Herzog would directly pardon Netanyahu.
Herzog nodded slightly, and Netanyahu was all smiles.
Genocide or apartheid.
On October 13, local time, in Ramallah, the headquarters of the Palestinian National Authority, released Palestinian detainees were warmly welcomed by Palestinian residents on the West Bank.
According to the International Committee of the Red Cross, as of October 13, the agency has assisted in the transfer of 20 hostages and the remains of 4 hostages to the Israeli authorities, and at the same time safely delivered 1,809 Palestinian detainees to Gaza and the West Bank. About a hundred Palestinian detainees are waiting to be transferred. Many of them were arrested by Israel after October 7, 2023, thrown into prison without any judicial procedure, and tortured. Many people are recognized as "enforced disappearances".
However, the follow-up negotiations were shadowed when the first detainees were released.Many Israeli and Middle Eastern media outlets revealed that Israel had removed the most prestigious Palestinian peace movement leader, Marwan Barghouti, from the exchange list.
"Barghouti and I had three days of communication together in Stockholm during the Oslo peace process, and we had long private conversations. He was a living, pro-peace man," Aaron Lyle, former director-general of the Israeli Foreign Ministry, recalled to China News Weekly.
“Some Palestinians committed terrible war crimes on 7 October 2023, but thousands of Palestinians long for peace, and how is Israel treating them?
Faced with Israel's "small moves", Hamas called on all sides to ensure that Israel "without delay and without avoidance fully implements the contents of the agreement", but most analysts believe that any minor contradictions and disagreements can be a reason for Netanyahu to resume military operations.
At present, the key difference between the two sides in the second phase of negotiations is how Hamas will disarm. Hamas stated that they can only hand over their weapons to "Palestine" and hinted that they hope to become an active participant in the future Gaza governance and Palestinian statehood process. The Israeli side maintains that Hamas must disarm immediately and unconditionally, otherwise "it will be solved by military means."
In response, Trump's preliminary plan is to train and deploy Palestinian police forces in Gaza under the supervision of the international transitional authorities. Hamas will hand over power and weapons to this "Palestinian force." Prior to this, Trump had temporarily authorized Hamas to conduct policing in the "security vacuum" of the Gaza Strip after Israel's withdrawal.
However, considering that the first phase of the ceasefire only lasts for 60 days, with the current security situation in the Gaza Strip, it is almost impossible to quickly establish an effective police force to replace Hamas. On October 12, fierce clashes broke out between local armed groups and Hamas forces in Gaza, killing at least 27 people, including 28-year-old Palestinian journalist Saleh Al Jaffarawi. There are reports that this armed group is linked to the Israeli government.
Many analysts worry that Israel will prevent Hamas from surrendering its regime and weapons in practical actions, thereby finding reasons to resume air strikes and blockade Gaza. Tariq Bakoni, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, pointed out that Netanyahu initially chose to fund Hamas and drive out Fatah in order to achieve this strategy: "Implement a tight blockade on the Gaza Strip on the grounds of fighting terrorism."
"Netanyahu has always wanted to occupy Gaza because he doesn't trust anyone." Lyall said. "Netanyahu doesn't believe that the Palestinian Authority, Arab countries or any international-backed force can manage post-war Gaza. Maybe one day in the future he will think that Gaza can produce a'friendly 'governing body. But for now, he wants the Israeli army to take direct control of the area."
However, Levy pointed out that, given the military costs and international perspectives, even if Israel resumed its military operations, it would be dominated by long-range attacks, small-scale ground operations and a total blockade, rather than a massive ground war again. Netanyahu’s ultimate goal may be to maintain the current level of control over the Gaza Strip. If Gaza is truly “international”, not only would it be difficult to establish the reasons for the siege, but the Israeli Defence Forces would also have to withdraw from the current control zone and want to enter and need new reasons and new war costs.
Concerned about Israel’s actions, leaders in the Middle East and Europe have continued to praise Trump and hope that he will continue to push Israel to abide by the next phase of the withdrawal plan. Egyptian Foreign Minister Abdullah Ali said Egypt hopes Trump will “continue to commit” even to send a small amount of military force directly to Gaza and that we need U.S. involvement and even field deployments.”
But how long can Trump's enthusiasm for Gaza last? Most analysts predict that Gaza's best "outcome" after this crisis is to return to Israel's divided control and blockade.
“For the Palestinians in Gaza, their choice is: genocide or apartheid,” Levy said.
Who else can save Gaza?
With the ceasefire agreed, the "international solidarity" around Gaza is fading fast. On October 13, Eurovision organizers said they would no longer vote on whether Israel should be allowed to participate in the contest, given the "changed situation." This signals the end of the global wave of "resistance to Israel." During the ceasefire negotiations, the Gaza Freedom Flotilla, a humanitarian flotilla bound for Gaza, was intercepted by the Israeli military, but it did not attract widespread attention from the international community as the Global Sumud Flotilla incident in early October.
“Once the war is over, our relations with European nations will be rapidly restored,” a person close to the Israeli government confidently told China Newsweek that even some countries in the Middle East Arab world will “consider restoring contact with us.”
According to U.S. media reports, Trump has drafted a candidate for members of the highest leading body of the Gaza International Transition Authority, the “International Committee”, including Aliye Lightstone, head of the “Abraham Pact Peace Research Institute” under the American Conservative Think Tank Traditional Foundation.
During Trump's first term, Lighterstone was an important manipulator of the Abraham Agreement, which promoted the normalization of relations between Israel and Arab countries in the Middle East. Today, he is Vitkov's main assistant in promoting the ceasefire in Gaza and founded the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation. This agency, which is "committed to distributing humanitarian supplies in Gaza", is widely questioned as responsible for the "death trap" that killed more than 2000 Palestinian civilians.
The documents obtained by the Israeli media "National Geographic" show that Letterston had said in the White House discussing the post-war Gaza program that the "two-state plan" is not important, "the urgency is to eradicate Hamas."Unidentified, another possible member of the International Committee, the Wall Street Grand Crocodile Mark Rowen, firmly believed that Israel's actions in Gaza were a "just war".
For both Gaza and Palestine, they have no choice but he (Trump) hasn’t talked with Abbas (the Palestinian president) (peace plan), he hasn’t even had Abbas speak to the UN.” – Dianna Boutou, a former Palestinian peace representative, said, “Once again, we have a plan to ‘talk about the Palestinians but never talk to the Palestinians.’
Boutou pointed out that from the beginning, Trump’s plan was destined to be a new catastrophe facing the Gazans.When he saw Gaza as a demolished ruin and development area, Gaza was no longer seen as a homeland for the natives, a long-term pursuit of national liberation.
The question is, how would the Gazans who are not included in the current peace plan decision-makers grow up in new suffering? Most of the approximately 2 million Gazans are descendants of refugees whose ancestors were pursued by Israeli militias during the 1948 Zionist War and forced to flee their homes. These people were the “Great Disaster Generation.”
For the younger generation born around 2000, they had experienced six large-scale military attacks by the Israel Defense Forces before October 2023, witnessed 14,000 local compatriots die in the war, and the vast majority suffered from war psychological trauma. These people are seen as the "Oslo generation": raised under an illusory vision of peace, forgotten and abandoned by the world, and ultimately attracted to Hamas's extreme ideology.
Since October 2023, this round of humanitarian crises has killed approximately 670,000 people in Gaza, and almost all of its 2 million inhabitants have been forced to displace. More than 80% of Gaza’s houses have been destroyed, and experts estimate it will take 14 years only to clean up the rubble.
After the ceasefire, Fida Haraz, a Gaza resident, returned to the neighborhood where she lived before the war, and I walked on the road, but I didn’t know where to go because the damage was too severe.
Press Release: Caoran@chinanews.com.cn
Chen Jialin (kalimchen97@gmail.com)