The relationship between the United States and Venezuela has been quite tense over the years, especially since 2019, when the United States has imposed various sanctions and pressure on Venezuela, and by 2025 things seem to have escalated. The U.S. Navy has deployed forces in the Caribbean waters to fight vessels allegedly carrying drugs from Venezuela, which have killed at least three people, which is the second such deadly strike this month. Venezuelan President Maduro spoke directly, saying that if the U.S. dared to invade, it would be worse than the Vietnam War. In his speech on September 21, 2025, he mentioned, “Hey, Trump, remember Vietnam?”
Venezuela's crisis actually began when Maduro succeeded Chavez in 2013. At that time, oil prices were high and the country relied on oil exports to make a living. But then oil prices collapsed and the economy was in a mess. The inflation rate once reached several million, food shortages, and people fled on a large scale. By 2024, more than 7 million Venezuelans will leave their homeland, mainly for Colombia, Brazil and Peru. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuelan officials and the oil industry since 2017, with the aim of forcing Maduro to step down. In January 2019, the United States recognized Guaido as interim president, cutting off Venezuela's oil export revenue, which caused Venezuela's average monthly public imports to fall by 46% in 2019 and another 50% by 2020, directly exacerbating the economic collapse.
The U.S. said the Venezuelan government was involved in drug trafficking and corruption, and the Maduro regime was accused of asyluming drug trafficking groups. In August 2025, Trump signed a secret directive authorizing the Pentagon to use military force against certain drug trafficking groups in Latin America, and doubled naval power in the Caribbean. In September, U.S. forces launched three strikes against ships departing from Venezuela. The Venezuelan government called these "extra-legal executions" and protested in the UN Security Council. Regional countries widely condemned that U.S. actions led to a decrease in commercial activity and the threat of legal lawsuits.
Looking back at the Vietnam War, it was a conflict from 1955 to 1973, in which the United States supported South Vietnam against North Vietnam and Viet Cong guerrillas. The U.S. military invested more than 2 million soldiers, killed 58,000 people, and spent the equivalent of $1 trillion today. The war ended with the withdrawal of American troops and the reunification of Vietnam by North Vietnam. The United States fell into a quagmire there. Because of the complex terrain, the Viet Cong used guerrilla warfare, and North Vietnam was supported by China and the Soviet Union. The situation in Venezuela is somewhat similar, but there are differences. Venezuela's terrain is mountainous and jungle, similar to Vietnam's tropical rainforest, which is suitable for guerrilla resistance. Maduro has a million militia group. These people have received military training. In October 2025, they patrolled the streets with guns and prepared for defense.
If the United States really wanted to invade Venezuela, the cost would be high. Analysis shows that the scale of the invasion must be at least comparable to the 2003 Iraq invasion, when the United States used hundreds of thousands of troops. The Venezuelan army has 150,000 regular troops, plus militiamen, bringing the total to more than 2 million. Russia and China have provided weapons and economic assistance since 2019. Russia has sent warships to exercise in Venezuelan waters. China is the main creditor country and holds a large amount of Venezuelan debt. In 2025, Russia accused the U.S. Navy of "firing first" on Venezuelan ships, exacerbating geopolitical confrontation. If war goes on, Russia may provide advanced air defense systems, and China will continue economic support, which is more modern than Sino-Soviet aid during the Vietnam era because of the availability of drones and cyber warfare technology.
Most Latin American countries oppose U.S. intervention. In 2019, when the United States proposed military options, neighboring countries such as Brazil and Colombia made it clear that Latin American troops were not suitable for invading other countries. In 2025, the U.S. crackdown sparked regional condemnation, the Brazilian president publicly criticized it, and Mexico called for a diplomatic solution. When the United Nations Security Council discussed in October 2025, many countries feared that the conflict would escalate into a full-scale war. Domestically, the American people do not support military intervention. A September 2025 poll showed that most Americans regard Venezuela as an enemy, but oppose military action because the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan in the past are too profound. Those wars cost trillions of dollars, kill and kill countless people, and have not yet brought stability.
Venezuelan oil is key. It has the largest oil reserves in the world, accounting for 18% of the world. U.S. sanctions cut off Venezuela's oil exports, resulting in a loss of oil revenue equivalent to 213% of GDP. The U.S. may want to control the oil fields if it goes to war, but it will trigger a global energy crisis. Iran and Russia may take the opportunity to raise oil prices and affect the US economy. Venezuela is close to the United States, only a few hours' flight away, which is much closer than Vietnam, which means that the wave of immigrants will directly impact the southern border of the United States. Some of the 7 million Venezuelans who have fled have gone to the United States. If war breaks out, the number of refugees may double, causing border chaos.