On October 12, local time, the presidential palace of Madagascar suddenly issued an emergency statement on the official social media.
The statement's tone is harsh, directly pointing out that "someone is trying to illegally seize power by force" in the country, and said that this act "is both unconstitutional and undermines democratic principles", and the current situation "has reached a dangerous point".
As soon as this statement came out, it exploded like a thunderstorm, and suddenly pushed this small African island country under the light of the world media.
To find out the reason for this matter, we have to go back to September 25th, more than a month ago. Since that day, Antananarivo, the capital, and several other cities have seen large-scale public protests. The core of everyone's protest is that it is really impossible to live without water and electricity every day.
Madagascar itself is one of the least developed countries in the world. Its infrastructure is inherently poor, and it has not improved much for so many years. The two problems of unstable electricity and water shortage have long been "persistent problems" for ordinary people.
Take Antananarivo, the capital, for example, it is common for many places to turn off electricity for three or four hours a day. If there is no generator at home, everything in the refrigerator will break down; it is more difficult to connect clean water, and sometimes you have to wait in line for a long time. It may not be possible to connect it.
At the beginning, the people's protests were peaceful, everyone wanted to make the government pay attention to the issue through the march. It can not be delayed for too long, the government has not given a reliable statement, the people's emotions slowly out of control, the protest gradually turned into violent events.
In many places, robberies of shops, firing houses, smashing enterprises, these violent acts not only injured and killed many people, but also destroyed the property of many people. Angry crowds not only smashed the public facilities along the streets, but also directly clashed with the police who came to maintain order.
Faced with this kind of chaos, the government did not want to communicate well. Instead, it tried to suppress the situation by dispersing and arresting people. However, not only did this not work, but it also made the people's anger even more intense.
On October 11th, the situation suddenly turned a big corner, and a more difficult situation appeared. There is a military camp in the south of Antananarivo, and the soldiers inside suddenly mutinied-many soldiers walked out of the military camp directly, joined the street protest team, and shouted the slogan "Let President Rajoelina step down".
When the news came out, it directly broke the political balance of Madagascar.Knowing that the army was originally the "cappuccino" of the stability of the country, now some soldiers stood on the opposite side of the government, this obviously suggests that the regime may be changing.
Speaking of Rajoelina, he has actually dealt with political crises for a long time. In 2009, he won the presidency through a coup; after leaving office in 2014, he returned to the presidency through elections in 2019 and 2023.
On September 29, he first announced the dissolution of the current government, then apologized on behalf of the government and the people, saying "many needs and expectations of everyone, the government has not been met, nor considered thoroughly", but also promised to coordinate the country's governance later, to find problems early, to come up with concrete solutions.
But the common people didn't buy him at all-what they wanted was tangible changes, not a few apologies and promises, so the protests were still noisy, even more intense than before.
More shockingly, La Giolina’s departure soon became a mystery.On October 13, French Radio International (RFI) and Reuters that La Giolina had left Madagascar with the help of the French side, sitting in the French military aircraft.
The French side shouted “do not interfere in Madagascar’s internal affairs,” but it was better for both sides to negotiate in advance to get La Jolina on the French plane and leave. The presidential palace also told the outside that La Jolina would give a national speech on the evening of the 13th, and the result was that now everyone is gone, and no one can say exactly where he was “safe.”
It was only on the evening of the 13th that La Jolina posted a short video on social media, in which he said he was transferred to a safe place because of "personal safety is threatened", but also stressed that he was not away, has been "dealing with official affairs", focusing on solving domestic power supply problems.
The African Union’s Peace and Security Council held an emergency meeting on 13 and issued an announcement after the meeting.
The announcement clearly states that the African Union has zero tolerance for acts that “do not come according to the Constitution and want to overthrow the current government”; at the same time, it also persuades the people who protest, there are demands that they can go through legal channels and not use this extreme method of violence; and also specifically shouts to the army of Madagascar, let them keep their position, do their duties according to the Constitution and do not get into the political struggle.
The AU also said that it would quickly appoint a special envoy in charge of Madagascar affairs and build a coordination mechanism. In addition, it suggested that a high-level delegation should be sent to Madagascar immediately to have a good chat with the local government, protesters, the army and other relevant parties, and find a way to resolve this crisis.
To put it deeply, Madagascar this time out of such a big mess, the fundamental reason is the economic foundation is too poor, the people of the day can not go.
In the past two years, the global economy has gone badly, coupled with climate change, such as the rainy season does not rain, the dry season is dry, the agricultural harvest has been greatly affected, and the export of minerals has not done well before, leading to sluggish economic growth.
The government has no money in its hands, but the foreign debt is increasing, checking the latest data of the World Bank can see that in 2024 the size of foreign debt of Madagascar, has exceeded 50% of its GDP for the whole year; and the foreign exchange reserves in its hands will be enough to buy imports for 5.7 months - in other words, if the imports are stopped, many domestic goods will not last for six months.
When the economy is poor, finding a job becomes a problem. The unemployment rate remains high, and many people cannot even eat enough. The dissatisfaction of the common people accumulates more and more, and in the end, as long as there is a trigger, it can easily erupt.
The current situation in Madagascar is still a mess, and no one knows what the next step will be. After the mutiny in the military camp, some soldiers stood up and said they wanted to take over the command of the army, but there is still no certainty on which side the soldiers in other military camps will stand.
If the army is divided into two factions and acts against each other, it is likely to lead to more serious violent conflicts, and then the people will suffer even more.
In addition, the protests on the streets have not stopped, and the people's demands have long changed-at first they just wanted to solve the living problem of water and power cuts, but now they have directly escalated to "let Rajoelina step down" and "reform the political system." These demands are much more difficult to satisfy than before.
For Rajolina and his government, there are now three problems that must be overcome, and none of them can be overcome: the first is to quickly restore the social order and stop the violence, or the people will not be able to live a normal life.
The second is to find ways to ease economic pressures, such as applying for aid with international organizations and adjusting economic policies to improve employment and income; the third is to regain the trust of the people – the previous apologies and promises are useless, and now we have to take concrete action to give people hope.
And support and coordination from the international community, especially from regional organizations such as the African Union, may be a key force in resolving the crisis if they can play a mediative role.
Source of information:
World Wide Web: Foreign media broke the news: Madagascar's political situation is turbulent, and President Rajoelina has left the country on a national plane
CCTV: African Union holds emergency meeting to discuss the situation in Madagascar