Kissinger has left, but the "prediction" he left behind about Sino-US relations seems to be more and more like a script that is reflected in reality.
The United States, a super player that has "overwhelmed" the world's second largest country four times at key nodes, is now facing a completely different opponent from the past-China. This time, can the United States continue to write the myth of "the second terminator"?
Review of hegemonic routines
Speaking about how the United Statesins its global hegemony, the path has long been familiar.After the Second World War, it did not rely on war or negotiation, but rather on economic rules, military alliances and speech power.
Whenever a country wants to "challenge the boss", the United States will act precisely, and four times succeeded in stifling the history of the "second" is just the abbreviation of its strategic logic.
Germany was "in ruins" after the two world wars. Although the United States was "late", it dominated the outcome after arriving. Germany's industrial capabilities were once astonishing, but the two hot wars and the ensuing post-war reconstruction directly transformed it from a protagonist to a supporting role.
NATO firmly tied it to the Western chariot, economically backed by the Marshall Plan, and militarily completely demilitarized it, making Germany the "back garden" of the United States.
Britain, the former "empire that never sets," experienced a frog-boiled replacement of "financial strangulation and institutional takeover." The US dollar ascended the throne through the Bretton Woods system, and the British pound was suspended. Britain could only retire silently.
The United States has rearranged the circle of the world economy with financial rules, who dares to take the C-point with it?
To the Soviet Union, the way is more hidden but more lasting. decades of the Cold War, the United States did not fight positively, but play the war of consumption. arms race, technological blockade, ideological infiltration, and bloodshed.
The Star Wars plan was false, and the Afghan dungeon wasted its last endurance.In the end, the Soviet economy collapsed, and Eastern Europe changed dramatically and dispersed without a sound.
Japan is another typical example, but it is a "non-hot war" war example in the economic field.
In the 1980s, Japan's manufacturing industry was once in the limelight, but the United States forced the yen to appreciate through the Plaza Accord and created an asset bubble, transforming from an "Asian miracle" to a "lost thirty years" overnight. Financial sanctions, technical barriers, and intellectual property disputes followed one after another. Japan's industrial chain was hollowed out and has not recovered yet.
These four "suppressed" second children all have one thing in common: after being locked by the United States, they can't escape the fate of being weakened or even reshaped.
The U.S. does not rely on a temporary strike, but on systematic repression and “rules set”, but this time, in the face of China, can this script be reused?
China is not the first.
If the previous opponent of the United States is "locally strong", then China is undoubtedly "comprehensively hard". from sovereign independence to the size of the economy, from the integrity of the industrial chain to scientific and technological innovation, China's card is not good.
The “second-person terminology” in the United States is increasingly likely to fail here in China.
China is stable like Thailand, has a nuclear deterrent backbone, has an unified defense system, has the ability to defend but is not interested in initiating a challenge.
The consumer potential of 1.4 billion people is not just to say, the key is that it can allow China to "survive" under the external blockade.
That’s why China can be “dominated by me” rather than beaten passively.
The integrity of the industrial chain is another "talisman". The United States sanctioned Huawei, and the core was stuck, but China's response was surprising-it did not collapse, but accelerated domestic substitution.
From the beginning to the end, China has covered almost all categories of the United Nations industry classification, and this structural advantage determines that even if it is blocked, it can make most of the key products on its own.
China is not based on the imitation of the home, nor on the accumulation of capital. quantum communications, manned space, big AI models ... these are no longer the rhythm of the “pursuiters”, but the “leaders”.
The trinity of national laboratories, university scientific research and private enterprise innovation has formed a closed loop of technological breakthroughs. The United States wants to contain China by technology, but finds that this wall is becoming increasingly unreliable.
Therefore, China is not a copy of Germany, the Soviet Union, Japan, the UK. It is not a single strong, but a strong system; it is not dependent on the outside, but a self-made system.
There is a game in confrontation
The current state of China and the United States is not like a hot war or a cold war, but more like a "full-court game". China has not relaxed any of the four cards of science and technology, military affairs, economy and diplomacy, and each of them is looking for a breakthrough.
While U.S. repression continues, China’s response is also becoming increasingly chapter-based.
In areas such as chips and operating systems, China did rely on the West in the past, but now, Chinese companies are catching up while doing it. The 5G communication system has been deployed globally, and Beidou Navigation has been completely independent.
This underlying technology independence is not only a security issue, but also a “right to speak” game.
China is not the "show muscle" faction, but the "hide and not reveal, Russia is effective", the deployment of informed operational systems, anti-drone systems, new missiles and new equipment is both defense and deterrence.
The United States in the Asia-Pacific frequency attempts to "block", but the Chinese side with the "no confrontation" as a gesture to resolve the tension, this "stylish braking" strategy, in fact, is more sophisticated.
China has not fallen into the trap of unilateralism, but has become more open. The Belt and Road Initiative is not a simple investment project, but uses infrastructure to connect markets. The signing of RCEP has brought closer economic and trade ties between China and ASEAN, Japan and South Korea and other countries.
This "expansion of friends circle" is equivalent to building multiple buffer zones in the face of external pressure.
From tackling climate change to promoting global development initiatives, from participating in UN peacekeeping to promoting South-South cooperation, China’s voice is rising.
The United States wants to suppress China by relying on its status as a "rule-maker," but the current international stage is no longer a Western one-man show.
In general, the game between China and the United States is not "you die and I live", but "this eliminates him".China has not touched the fundamental interests of the United States, but will never accept passive beating.
Through the diversified layout of technological self-reliance, military defense, economic cooperation and international discourse, China is responding to the old routines of its old rivals in a new way.
Kissinger once said that America’s enemies are too many and friends too few, and that the warning appears to be especially striking in the current China-U.S. relationship.
But times have changed. This time, China is not a simple rising player, but a systemic power with full-dimensional response capabilities.
China is not the role of passively waiting for a fate arrangement, but the active participant in writing the future script. Per, this time, Kissinger's prophecy is no longer a repetition of the old drama, but the starting point of the new story.
Source of information:
How the United States became the world's "leader"/Source: The Paper News
From the "Kissinger perspective" to the future of China-US relations / source: Light Net - The Light Daily