Literally Goranduo

Edited | Goranduo

In this case, I would like to invite you to take a little "attention" and make it easier for you to communicate in the future.I look forward to listening to your different opinions and even opposing opinions.The truth is more clear, thank you for teaching!

It is now October 2025, and a war has been fought for more than three years. The location is in eastern Europe, and the protagonists are Russia and Ukraine. But today we are not talking about the battlefield. We are talking about how China should respond.

Several days earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a public speech that the Russian military had taken control of more than 5,000 square kilometers of eastern Ukraine¡¯s territory.

This war has gone from ¡°possible winning¡± to ¡°basic winning.¡±So here's the question, If Russia really wins, what preparations will China have to do?

If Russia wins, the world really changes

We have to speak clearly first. If Russia wins, it does not mean that China wins.China-Russia relations are a "comprehensive strategic cooperation partner", this is not denied.

But don't forget that after Russia won, its international status, geographical influence, energy pricing power, may have a change in quality.Now many people are working hard to render the concept of "Chinese-Russian Union", but the problem is that the alliance is not bound, let alone not attached.

From the outbreak of the war in 2022 to now, Russia has experienced a upheaval on the battlefield.The Ukraine is not without backing capabilities, as in the previous period of the "Darknet operation", 13 Russian military aircraft were destroyed, not a minor injury to the Russian military.

But the overall stance is already clear, especially in the direction of Donetsk and Lugansk, and the Russian advance is obvious. Western aid is dwindling, and Ukraine's military-industrial system has been crippled.

But the reality is, Russia has taken a strategic initiative.At this time, China must do what a big country should do, Prepare in advance, even for the worst intention.

There is one thing that everyone needs to understand, Russia¡¯s cooperation today is based on real pressures.In 2024, the trade volume between China and Russia will reach US $244.8 billion, of which energy accounts for a large part. Natural gas, oil, coal-these are our current rigid needs.

For example, the "Power of Siberia" natural gas pipeline will supply 22.7 billion cubic meters of gas to China in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 37% in the first eight months of 2024. The data looks beautiful, but the problem is, Once Russia wins, will it still be so "easy to talk"?

Energy pricing, transportation pricing, and long-term contracts are complicated, for example, in Central Asia, where China¡¯s influence in Central Asia is at the same level as Russia, and even dominates in some areas of the economy.

But after the end of the war, Russia is likely to "release hands" to rebuild its backyard. Central Asia is the throat of our ¡°Belt and Road¡±, and once Russia wants to regain its voice, we must have the means to respond.Therefore, Russia's victory is not a simple "happy event".

There are three things China has to do.

What should we do? ¨C Simply put. Three things, one is not less.First thing: Energy security must be diversified. Now China's dependence on Russia for natural gas has reached 40%, and its dependence on foreign oil exceeds 70%. This is a very dangerous signal.

We can't put all our eggs in one basket. The Middle East is another important choice for us. Saudi crude oil accounts for 17% of our imports, and Iraq and the United Arab Emirates are also strategic partners.

Central Asia, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, rich natural gas resources, pipeline transportation stable. Africa, Angola, Nigeria, are also in our layout.

There is also a domestic, wind power, photovoltaic, hydrogen, coal and clean use, these are not arrangements, but the lifeline of the future. China's goal is to increase the proportion of renewable energy to 25% by 2030. Only by achieving this goal can we strategically break away from external dependence.

Second: technology autonomy, can not wait anymore, Russia won, the technological blockade of the West will not loosen, but instead increase.We are now investing a lot in the field of semiconductors, in 2024 research and development investment increased by 15%, optical engraving machine, chip processing technology is in search of customs.

In the aviation field, the C919 test flight is advancing, and the independent research and development of aero-engines is also accelerating. But that's not enough. We also have to form cooperation with the European Union and Japan in the fields of artificial intelligence and quantum computing to reduce the risk of dual dependence on Russia and the West.

Third: diplomatic balance, can not rely only on "old friends", China-Russia relations, of course, to continue to deepen, but can not be strategically bound.

We need to be mentally prepared and have a practical layout.At the same time, European relations must be repaired.The EU, although it follows the United States, is not a piece of iron.Economic complementarity still exists, and we should strive to unfreeze the China-Europe Comprehensive Investment Agreement and exchange space for markets.

There are also Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America, all of which are strategic buffer zones that we must operate. For example, the trade volume with ASEAN will increase by 8% in 2025, the Beijing Summit will invest US $9 billion in Latin America, and industrial park projects in Africa are advancing.

Don't forget history and don't repeat mistakes

We once had a relationship with the Soviet Union as well as the "big brother old brother", and what happened?In 1969, the Treasure Island incident, an old friend suddenly turned his face and shot a gun against us.

History will not repeat itself, but it will rhyme.Russia is very pleasant to cooperate today, and it does not mean that the future will be the same.What we have to do is to grasp the present, predict the future, do not have fantasies, do not leave dead corners.

The last three years of war have given us a reason. The world has changed and the old pattern will not return.If Russia wins, we cannot avoid it or be blindly optimistic.

China must make the best preparations.Energy can¡¯t be stuck in the neck, technology can¡¯t rely on people, and diplomacy can¡¯t be thrown aside. Only in this way, no matter who wins or loses, China will not lose.What we want is not the dividend of victory, but the initiative in changes.

Putin's latest speech: Russian military fully grasp strategic initiative China News Network 2025-10-08 11:42