On October 14, local time, Qatar's Foreign Ministry spokesman Magid Ansari said that negotiations on the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement had already begun and that the parties had previously postponed discussions on the second phase of the agreement to ensure the smooth implementation of the first phase.

Egypt, Qatar and other mediators announced on the 9th local time that the first phase of the ceasefire agreement had been reached. Subsequently, an Israel Defense Forces spokesman stated that the first phase of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza came into effect at 12 noon local time on the 10th.

International public opinion generally believes that reaching the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement is a positive development, but the prospects for peace remain unclear. So, what will the second phase agreement, which is more difficult to negotiate, specifically involve? What are the difficulties in negotiation? How will the situation develop?

01

Phase II agreement negotiations

What will be involved?

If the U.S. government's "20-point plan" is followed, the focus of negotiations on the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement will be the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip and the disarmament of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas). In addition, it also includes the establishment of an international stabilization force composed of the United States, Arab countries and European countries to maintain security in Gaza; and the establishment of the Palestinian Independent Technocratic Council to be responsible for daily affairs in Gaza under international supervision.

However, Hamas has always insisted on ending Israel's occupation and the establishment of a Palestinian state as prerequisites for complete disarmament; At present, the Israeli government only agrees to the first phase of the agreement and has not made a clear commitment to the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip.

Hamas Political Bureau member Bardem said the U.S. draft of the second phase of a ceasefire in Gaza ¡°contained many complex issues and difficulties,¡± suggesting that subsequent negotiations would not go smoothly.

02

Where is the second phase of negotiations?

Li Zixin, assistant researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, believes that,The first is the issue of Israeli withdrawal¡£Israel is reluctant to withdraw completely from the Gaza Strip, fearing that a security vacuum will lead Hamas to rebuild its military force, and insists on implementing security control throughout Gaza. Hamas, on the other hand, demands a full Israeli withdrawal as a prerequisite, which leads to a lack of trust between the two parties and delays in the negotiation process.

The second is the disarmament of Hamas.For Hamas, the likelihood of Hamas actively giving up all its weapons is also lower in the absence of credible multilateral balancing and guarantee mechanisms and Israel¡¯s explicit refusal to withdraw from the Gaza Strip.

Furthermore, the establishment and operation of the international security forces and independent Palestinian technical bureaucrats remains vague in details, and whether they will be recognized by the Palestinian people and political factions remains uncertain, all of which will be difficult points in the second phase of negotiations.

Experts worry that the ceasefire will eventually turn into an exchange of detainees.

Professor at the University of Maryland and Senior Fellow at the Brookings InstitutionHopeby Billy Telham:The next question is whether the first phase of the agreement will be the final phase.Is it a peace agreement, or is it just a release of detainees and a ceasefire?The answer remains unclear, but I am concerned that the latter is closer.

03

If negotiations advance difficulties or failure

How will the situation in Gaza develop?

Li Zixin, assistant researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, said that if the second phase of ceasefire negotiations is difficult to advance or eventually fails,The situation in Gaza could rapidly deteriorate and return to the cycle of conflictIsrael has basically completed its occupation of Gaza at the beginning of the month and has carpet-like destruction of Hamas¡¯ military infrastructure in Gaza City. If the war starts again, it will be easier for Israel to re-occupy Gaza City. At the same time, if the current Gaza peace framework is abandoned, it is not excluded that the future Israeli government will also approve the establishment of permanent settlements in Gaza under the push of Israeli right-wing political forces.

For Gaza outside Israeli control, Israel is likely to increase the siege, cut off international aid and related water and energy supplies, resulting in a humanitarian crisis and more casualties.

If the second phase of negotiations fails, Israel is likely to pursue a more rigorous policy across the entire Palestinian territory, including Gaza and the West Bank, when the peace process will be even more distant.