Recently, former German Chancellor Merkel has become the focus again. Her opening directly turned out the "old scores" of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and also targeted Poland and the three Baltic countries, which suddenly exploded in Europe. pot.
Merkel said that when she was still prime minister in 2021, she wanted to take the lead in a new dialogue mechanism between the EU and Putin, had thought to talk well, to resolve Ukraine, but didn't think that Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the four countries jumped out strongly against, which ended yellow. Later she left office, not long after the Russian conflict broke out. She said it was clear: if the four countries did not stop at the beginning, probably there would be no war for half three years. In fact, earlier, in 2019, 2020, she also planned with French President Macron to talk to Putin, want to wipe out the war, or because the four countries opposed, there was no talk.
As soon as this came out, the reactions of all parties were completely different. The former Polish Prime Minister was directly anxious, saying that Merkel was "the most destructive German politician in Europe in the past hundred years"; The Estonian Foreign Minister also followed suit, saying that her accusations were cheeky and unreasonable, and emphasized that the responsibility for the Russia-Ukraine conflict lies entirely with Russia. But there are also people who support Merkel. For example, Serbian President Vucic stood up to help, saying that if Merkel can continue to become German Chancellor, there is a high probability that Russia and Ukraine will not be able to fight.
Merkel's words are not just as simple as settling old scores. There are many signals behind them. The most obvious thing is that European views on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have long been divided: on the one hand, Merkel feels that diplomatic negotiations should be used to ease the situation; on the other hand, Poland and the three Baltic countries are bent on going against Russia. Moreover, Merkel said this to justify her past policy towards Russia, meaning that it was not that I didn't work hard at the beginning, but someone was holding her back. In addition, this also reveals the concerns of many European countries-now the United States is increasingly trying to leave the mess of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to Europe. They hope that Europe can take the diplomatic initiative on its own and not always follow the United States.
Before Merkel's words subsided, there was a new movement from the United States-whether to give Ukraine "Tomahawk" missiles. Trump said he had almost made up his mind, but first figured out how and where Ukraine would use the missile after it got it. The U.S. Vice President also said that European NATO members might pay for it and hand it over to Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Zelensky was upset, he said before seeking Biden to "tacks" missiles, was directly rejected, this time meeting with Trump in New York, the opponent did not say directly, but also said to do a technical assessment. Zelensky felt that as long as you get the "tacks", Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities can be greatly increased, at the time Russia will have to converge, will also take the initiative to sit down and negotiate.
But Russia is very tough. Putin said that even if the United States gives the "Tomahawk", it can't change the situation on the battlefield, but Russia-US relations will definitely be greatly affected, and all the good momentum that finally appeared before will be gone. And he also pointed out a key point: without the help of American soldiers, Ukraine would not be able to use the "Tomahawk" at all. This is equivalent to the direct involvement of the United States, and Russia-US relations will only become more tense. Russian Presidential Press Secretary peskov also said that this would greatly escalate the situation. Although the "Tomahawk" capable of carrying nuclear warheads has long been retired, it can't stand this possibility, and Russia will definitely respond according to Putin's words. The spokesman of the Russian Foreign Ministry even bluntly said that this would cause irreparable harm to Russia-US relations.
In fact, the "Taxic" missile itself has a lot of gateways. It does not fly too fast, can be launched from military ships, submarines or land, can hit more than 2,000 kilometers, if Ukraine gets in hand, Russia's Moscow, St. Petersburg are within the range of strike. But it is not invincible, as much as the Russian usual cruise missile performance, is often shot down in real war. And Ukraine is not now able to use the "Taxic" equipment - the navy has no kind of military ships, the U.S. Army's own land-based "Taxic" can not give to Ukraine. More importantly, many people think that the U.S. is really to "Taxic", may be in the investigation of the Russian reaction, for then to give Ukraine more advanced weapons, such as
In addition to the US-Russian side, the European Union is not lazy. European Commission President Von der Leyen thought of a trick, intending to make the frozen Russian overseas assets into “credit compensation” to support Ukraine for a long time. But this matter is not a little controversy, many countries within the EU are opposed, because from the legal point of view can not stand, and may also break the sign of the EU and the euro. Russia is even harsher, if the EU dares to do so, will surely take a tough counterattack. Now European Russia’s contradictions have long been not only political and economic, they have begun to develop in the direction of military friction, if the EU is still so hard, the Russian conflict in Russia to become a direct confrontation with Europe Russia is too big.
Let's talk about current international relations. Russia-EU relations have basically frozen. The EU's military assistance to Ukraine exceeds 80 billion euros. However, Ukraine's counterattack has not shown much success, and many EU countries do not want to pay any more. Although von der Leyen shouted for member states to "listen to Putin," he did not really want to ease up, but just wanted to rely on "external threats" to unite the EU. Moreover, there is also a lot of controversy within the EU. Eastern European countries want to fight with Russia, but countries such as Hungary want to ease up. It is difficult for von der Leyen to be caught in the middle.
Russia-U.S. relations are even more tense, if the United States is really giving the "tacks", the relationship between the two countries will definitely go backwards. but Putin has not spoken to death, has not completely closed the door of dialogue, if the United States can converge in the matter of Ukrainian weapons, the relationship between the two countries is probably not even worse.
The most interesting is the “intermediary” of the United States, looking like it is mediating the Israeli-Russian conflict, but can not stand. The Trump administration has only “American interests first”, not really want to resolve the conflict. For example, in the Russian-Russian issue, at first wanted to rely on slowing down the US-Russian relations to mediate, the result of which underestimated the complex game between Ukraine, the EU, NATO, has no effect. And the US policy for a while, Trump has also said that if the Russian-Russian side does not want to talk, does not interfere, the Secretary of State has said the same, is not stable.
Looking back at what Merkel said now, no matter how controversial it is, it does point out Europe's helplessness in the Russia-Ukraine conflict-there was an opportunity to avoid war through negotiations, but it was ruined by internal differences. Now that the war has been fought for three and a half years, the European economy has been dragged down, the United States still wants to pass the blame, Ukraine is in an increasingly difficult situation, and Russia is also prepared for a long-term response. I'm afraid it will take a long time for this conflict to end.