The battlefield of the global trade war, quietly changing, once lifted the "America Priority" flag, Trump, tried to suppress China with tariffs, but did not realize that this trade war provoked by the United States against China, is being reversed by a patient and accurate layout of China.
Not long ago, Canada suddenly turned around in this game that was supposed to be a "united front" and took the initiative to seek reconciliation from China. This turning point not only makes the trade friction between China and Canada likely to end, but also May open the prelude to the isolation of the United States.
The end of the China-Canada tariff war may be just the first domino to fall. It was the United States that ignited the war that was really "exposed to the storm".
Chess to the middle.
At the beginning of 2025, Trump once again returned to the White House with a high profile, and immediately restarted the tariff offensive against China. A large number of Chinese goods, including electric vehicles, were re-imposed tariffs.
Behind this policy of returning the pot is Trump's obsession with the return of manufacturing. However, in the reality that global supply chains have long been deeply integrated, this approach is more like moving against the current.
Shortly afterwards, Canada also made a statement that the new Carney government quickly announced additional tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and related parts on the grounds of "protecting its own industry" and "being consistent with allies."
From a political standpoint, this is a gesture of loyalty to the United States, Canada is betting on close relations with the United States in exchange for economic and trade dividends, unfortunately, it underestimates China's ability to respond, and also misjudges the cost it can bear.
In August, China's Ministry of Commerce announced the imposition of counter-tariffs on rapeseed, timber and some mineral products exported from Canada. This move did not hesitate at all, and it hit the pillar export industries that Canada is proud of.
In particular, rapeseed has long been an important commodity exported by Canada to China. China's response was precise and restrained, but without losing strength, and quickly set off a chain reaction in Canada.
The Canadian Agriculture Association and local provincial governments have expressed concerns, and areas such as Alberta and Saskatchewan provinces, which rely mainly on exports to China, are the first to "cry the pain".
Immediately afterwards, some provincial governors organized delegations to visit China in an attempt to ease the situation; a number of provincial leaders jointly wrote to the federal government requesting a reassessment of tariff policies towards China. At the same time, the Canadian Foreign Minister publicly stated that he would arrange an official trip to China and seek to "resolve disputes in a reciprocal manner."
Behind this change in wind direction, there is actually an unknown episode. The Carney administration has sent representatives to Washington many times, hoping to get some form of compensation or exemption. However, instead of responding positively, the Trump administration threw out the idea of "Canada-US merger".
This remark caused an uproar in Canadian political circles and was interpreted as a great affront to national sovereignty. Since then, Canada has been disillusioned with the United States and has begun to reassess its position.
Beyond bilateral
The easing of China-China relations is not a simple bilateral trade warming, but a strong signal to the global trade pattern, especially for the EU, which is a "model lesson" in reality.
In recent years, the European Union has split opinions on whether to levy taxes on Chinese electric vehicles. Major automobile exporting countries such as Germany and France have always been worried that if they rashly follow the United States, it will attract Chinese countermeasures and harm the interests of their own enterprises.
However, China and Canada's "reciprocal tariff cancellation" approach has undoubtedly provided a clear path for the EU: not all disputes have to be escalated into full-scale conflicts, but interest negotiation and rational compromise can win practical benefits.
The EU is conducting internal consultations with China, and the reconciliation between China and Canada has given them a realistic reference. Once the EU also chooses a low-key compromise, the idea of the United States aiming at building an "anti-China trade alliance" will gradually collapse in the face of reality, which means that the United States is no longer an irreplaceable core, but only an option among many trading partners.
At the same time, a new trading system that is not centered on the United States is quietly taking shape. Taking BRICS countries as an example, the local currency settlement mechanism between China and Brazil, India and other countries has been gradually established, and trade cooperation has become more diversified.
Free trade agreements between ASEAN countries and China are also deepening, with more and more countries trying to bypass the United States and directly establish bilateral or multilateral trade settlement mechanisms, a trend known as “de-Americanization.”
This structural change complements the trend of "de-dollarization". For example, Russia and India have begun to use RMB for settlement in energy transactions, and Gulf countries are also considering de-linking some crude oil transactions from the US dollar.
While the global settlement dominance of the dollar remains, its “uniqueness” is facing unprecedented challenges, with China waiting not only for a moment to “shake hands” with Canada, but also for a turning point in the globalized trade order.
Being a “live target”?
The transformation of the United States from the leader of the trade war to today's "living target" is not due to external containment, but due to the internal friction of its own policies.
After taking office, Trump regained the slogan of "America first" and regarded tariffs as a universal weapon, trying to force global concessions. However, it turns out that this strategy based on harming others often hurts himself in the end.
The research of the Peterson Institute for International Economics has pointed out that the massive tariff policy during Trump's first term did not effectively revitalize the manufacturing industry, but instead raised domestic inflation in the United States, leaving ordinary consumers and small and medium-sized enterprises in the first place.
The re-start of the tariff war, although politically prominent, has been economically difficult to follow, especially in today's industrial chain globalization, the dependence of U.S. enterprises on China has not decreased, but instead bears more costs due to repeated policies.
Canada's "defeat" is precisely the abbreviation of this strategic failure, on the surface, Canada is one of the closest allies of the United States, but when the economic pressure brought by China's counter-repression strikes, Canada's loyalty quickly disintegrates, the national interests are hard reason, and if the United States requires allies to sacrifice their own interests to coordinate with their strategy, it is difficult to maintain long-term cooperation.
More importantly, China’s way of resolving disputes has returned to the spirit of multilateralism advocated by the WTO, a model of “you come to me and negotiate” that the United States has just abandoned.
Once upon a time, the United States was the standard-bearer of global free trade, but now it has become a representative of unilateralism. In the long run, the effectiveness of its tariff tools will gradually weaken and more countries will regard them as a threat rather than a partner.
Under the global trend of multilateral negotiations, regional cooperation and parallel monetary pluralism, U.S. instruments of hegemony are failing, and its attempts to control the global trade order by geopolitical means are being replaced by pragmatic cooperation.
China-Canada reconciliation is only the beginning, and more countries will take their own interests as the starting point and choose a more rational and sustainable cooperation mode.
China has waited for this day for a long time, not for the joy of victory, but for the rules to return to the negotiating table. The process of turning the United States into a "living target" is not that other countries encircle and suppress it, but that it has fallen into an isolated island.
The return of global trade to the trajectory of multilateralism is precisely the denial of the "American priority" logic, if the United States does not want to drop the barrel, it will eventually be left behind by the times, and what China wants is the opportunity for this order to succeed.
Source of information:
Canada's governor calls for the cancellation of tariffs on electric vehicles in China 2025-10-14 12:03·Global Times