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Source: All statements in this article have reliable sources of information contained in the article and at the end.

On October 13th, local time, Trump took Air Force One to the Middle East to attend the meeting. This was a trip focusing on Middle East affairs, but on the way, he suddenly mentioned China's two neighbors, Pakistan and Afghanistan, saying, "I will deal with the Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict when I come back", which instantly drew the attention of the outside world to the geopolitical game in Asia.

In the aftermath of a violent conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan on the border, Pakistani officials that more than 200 Taliban were killed in the conflict and more than 20 were killed by their own security forces. Only from this number of casualties can be seen that the scale of this border friction far exceeds the usual border confrontation, and the conflict between the two sides has reached the point of sword-breaking.

In fact, before Trump's statement, China, as an important neighbor of Pakistan and Afghanistan, had already responded for the first time. On October 13th, the spokesman of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs publicly called on the top leaders of the two countries to exercise restraint, and at the same time made it clear that China is willing to play a constructive role in assisting the two sides in promoting peaceful dialogue.

Anyone familiar with China's diplomatic style knows that this position is not only in line with the concept of "promoting talks through peace" that China has always advocated, but also stems from the fact that peace and stability between Pakistan and Afghanistan are closely related to China's vital interests. Whether it is the security and stability of border areas or the promotion of the "the belt and road initiative" initiative in South Asia, it is inseparable from the harmonious environment of neighboring countries.

But no one expected that as soon as China released the signal of promoting peace, Trump immediately stated that he would "intervene". Judging from Trump's acting style in the past, he will never do a "loss-making business". When mediating the conflict between Russia and Ukraine before, the United States made a lot of money by selling weapons to Europe. Even though he often mentioned that he "wanted to win the Nobel Peace Prize", the interests behind it were never ambiguous. This time, focusing on the Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict obviously has deeper considerations.

Take Bagram Air Force Base in Afghanistan as an example. As early as September this year, Trump publicly stated that "the United States must take it back" on the grounds that "the base is too close to China's nuclear base". Now that Afghanistan is clearly at a disadvantage in the conflict with Pakistan, Trump chooses this opportunity to intervene, and there is a high probability that he will take the opportunity to put pressure on the Afghan government and try to regain control of Bagram Air Force Base.

Once the United States really regains control of this strategic location, it will undoubtedly be a big challenge to China's surrounding security environment. After all, if the U.S. military presence in the Asia-Pacific region gets closer to China's border, it is likely to break the existing security balance in the region.

And from another perspective, Trump's statement this time also intends to close relations with Pakistan. The influence of the United States in South Asia has declined in recent years, and the all-weather strategic cooperative partnership between China and Pakistan has become increasingly close. Trump obviously does not want to see this situation continue.

Taking the initiative to show kindness to Pakistan by taking the opportunity of the Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict can not only try to weaken China's influence in the region, but also find a new strategic fulcrum for the United States in South Asia. This "killing two birds with one stone" calculation is actually not difficult to see through.

The Bahá'í attitude is clearly divergent, China's promotion and program is more attractive

After Trump announced that he would "handle the Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict," the outside world was most concerned about how Pakistan and Afghanistan would respond. Judging from the current attitudes of the two countries and their past relations with the United States, it is likely that the two sides will show completely different reactions.

Let's look at Pakistan first. Although there have been frictions between Pakistan and the United States in recent years, there are still certain needs for cooperation in the security and economic fields. Especially when dealing with regional security threats, Pakistan occasionally needs the support of the United States. Therefore, in the face of Trump's "proactive intervention," Pakistan will likely give him some face and be willing to sit down and communicate with the United States.

After all, for Pakistan, one more communication channel may occupy a more favorable position in the confrontation with Afghanistan, and it will not offend the United States for the time being, and it will also avoid falling into the predicament of multi-line pressure.

But the situation in Afghanistan is quite different. The long-term military operations of the United States in Afghanistan have brought great pain to the local people. Even if the U.S. military later withdrew its troops, the chaotic situation left behind made the Afghan people full of dissatisfaction with the United States. This kind of "deep hatred" cannot be resolved in a short time, so in the face of Trump's intervention, Afghanistan will most likely remain vigilant or even refuse.

For Afghanistan, the past intervention of the United States has often only made the situation worse, rather than bringing real peace. Instead of trusting the United States, it is better to seek a more neutral and reliable partner.

And China is precisely a "neutral and reliable" partner in Afghanistan's eyes. China has always adhered to the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries, and has always upheld a fair and just attitude in dealing with international disputes. Just like this Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict, the core of China's peace-promoting plan is to push the two sides to resolve their differences through dialogue and consultation, without taking sides, and without attaching any political conditions. It is entirely based on the fundamental interests of Pakistan and Afghanistan. This attitude of "not seeking personal gain, only for peace" is obviously more attractive than the intervention of the United States with strong interest calculation.

In fact, China has made a lot of efforts to promote peace and stability in South Asia in recent years. For example, through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, China has carried out a lot of pragmatic cooperation with Pakistan, Afghanistan and other countries in the fields of security cooperation and economic exchanges, creating a good environment for regional development.

If China succeeds in promoting dialogue between the two sides, it will not only further enhance China's influence in South Asia, but also smoothly promote the "Belt and Road" initiative.

However, it should also be noted that since the Trump administration has stated its intention to intervene, it is likely to take practical actions next, such as sending special envoys to communicate with both Pakistan and Afghanistan, or wooing one of them by providing assistance. This means that China may face competition and even interference from the United States in the process of promoting peace.

But in the long run, China¡¯s peace initiative is more in line with the fundamental interests of both Bahᡯí and regional peace and stability, after all, both Pakistan and Afghanistan will ultimately need a peaceful solution without external manipulation and truly dominated by themselves, and China can provide them with such a platform.

conclusion

Next, as China and the United States take their own actions, the situation of the Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict is likely to enter a critical turning point. But no matter how the external forces play the game, it is the choice of Pakistan and Afghanistan that ultimately determines the direction of the situation.

If both sides can recognize the importance of peace and seize the opportunities for dialogue provided by China, they may be able to resolve their differences as soon as possible and restore calm to the border areas; on the contrary, if they are diverted by external forces and continue to fall into conflict, what will ultimately be damaged will be the people's livelihood and development of the two countries.

Source: Official Account

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