* If the trade war fails, will the United States choose to destroy China by force? Some experts believe that if the United States loses this trade war, Trump will most likely consider war options.
The Sino-US trade game in October 2025 is heading towards a new turning point. China's Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have issued successive announcements to include key items such as rare earth mining equipment and medium and heavy rare earth minerals into export controls. Even overseas products containing China's rare earth technology are also supervised, and an export "release note" system is implemented for lithium batteries and other materials.
This wave of counter-measures has hit a sore spot in the United States. The United States relies on imports from China for 70% of its rare earths, and 93% of its deep processing capabilities are concentrated in China. Each US military F-35 fighter plane uses 400 kilograms of rare earths. 1000 weapon systems are inseparable from materials such as samarium and dysprosium supplied by China.
Three days later, Trump said on the social platform that he would impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese goods exported to the United States, and threatened to cut off the supply of Boeing parts, but he did not cancel the meeting arrangement of the APEC summit. The panic gesture was obvious.
To say that the United States dare not choose the war, the nuclear deterrence red line is first impossible, China's East Wind-27 high-speed anti-ship missiles have a range of more than 8,000 kilometers, the speed of 15 Mach can slide on the edge of the atmosphere, the accuracy control is within 30 meters, the U.S. aircraft carrier crew in the western Pacific and the Guam base are all within the range of strike.
The U.S. military itself is aware that their high-speed weapons are still in the testing phase and are not at all able to counterbalance.
What's more realistic is that the U.S. military industry system has long been stuck by rare earths. The rare earth mines in California have to be dug up and transported to China for refining. It will take at least 10 years to build a complete processing chain. Now the U.S. military's rare earth inventory is only enough to last for several months, and some military industrial lines have been shut down.
To start a war, the United States even the production of weapons is difficult to follow, in this case talking about the war option is purely empty talk.
Trump himself should also understand that after the imposition of tariffs in April, the price of imports of U.S. CPI commodities rose by 2.3%, 72% of small and medium-sized importers were forced to raise prices, and 38% of enterprises were dismissed, and the rise of war would only cause the domestic economy to completely collapse.
China's military strength is no longer at the hands of others. In 2025, the number of active warships in the Chinese navy will reach 754, with a total tonnage of nearly 2.86 million tons. The Type 003 Fujian ship will form combat effectiveness, and the Type 004 will be unveiled soon. The three aircraft carrier battle groups can effectively protect offshore safety.
The regional denial network built by Dongfeng-27 makes U.S. aircraft carriers afraid to approach the second island chain easily.
Our industrial base is also a backbone, and the cost of rare earth processing is only one-fifth of the U.S., and the advantages of the entire industrial chain, from raw materials to deep processing, can support the continuous supply of national defense needs.
This strength is not a number on paper, it is a reality that can deter the opponent.
Once the war begins, the damage to bear by the United States is multidimensional, China imposes on US ships a special port fee of $400 per net tonne, the U.S. maritime industry earns more than $20 billion annually on China-U.S. routes, and 60% of trade ships with China depend on Chinese ports, this kick directly hits their pockets.
25% of Boeing's orders come from China, and more than 1,800 passenger aircraft served in China are a source of profit, and parts will only make Boeing completely into crisis, thus involving the interests of the U.S. military-industrial complex.
The financial market can't stand the tossing. Referring to the previous precedent that trade frictions led to the evaporation of US $4 trillion in US stocks, war panic will only accelerate the escape of capital.
The United States itself has been deeply polarized politically, and the casualties and economic recessions caused by the start of the war will only aggravate the social split and the risk of government shutdowns may be increased.
Looking at the allies of the United States, really no one was willing to be the ashes when the war began, Trump before engaging in tariffs did not distinguish the enemy friends, even the EU was imposed high tariffs, now want to make the allies out of power no one responded at all.
The EU itself has been hit enough by China’s anti-dumping pork, the Spanish prime minister is actively visiting China to expand trade relations, and MEPs are saying to “take risks” with the United States.
Japan and South Korea in the Asia-Pacific are more aware that their economies are highly dependent on trade with China. Australia's exports to the United States are less than 15% of its exports to China. How can it follow the United States to take risks?
British think tanks have issued a document calling that the risk of allies relying on American technology is greater than that of relying on China. Who will truly help the United States fight under such circumstances?
After the failure of the trade war, the United States was not helpless, but the remaining means had limited effectiveness. After the technology blockade has been in place for so long, Huawei has long turned to domestic suppliers. SMIC has continued to make breakthroughs in advanced processes. China's R & D investment has increased year by year, ranking first in the world in the number of 5G patents.
The American Semiconductor Industry Association has long warned that continued blockade will cost the United States one-third of its export market, and companies such as Intel and Qualcomm are all opposed.
Trump may also expand the entity list, but China's market appeal is there, and American companies will not really want to give up.
The game of rules in the multilateral framework is more difficult. The largest trading partner of most countries is China, and no one wants to follow the United States to build a wall.
War options have always been false, and America’s real trouble is its own industrial emptiness and hegemonic thinking.
China's counter-reaction is not to confront, but to keep the bottom line of development, the rare-earth processed "kitchen" is in our hands, and the links of the industrial chain have long binded the two countries together.
The weakness of hegemony lies in the industrial chain, and the confidence of peace comes from the balance of power.
Do you think the US allies' "risk-taking" call will make Trump adjust the strategy against China?
The Sino-US trade game in October 2025 is heading towards a new turning point. China's Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have issued successive announcements to include key items such as rare earth mining equipment and medium and heavy rare earth minerals into export controls. Even overseas products containing China's rare earth technology are also supervised, and an export "release note" system is implemented for lithium batteries and other materials.
This wave of counter-measures has hit a sore spot in the United States. The United States relies on imports from China for 70% of its rare earths, and 93% of its deep processing capabilities are concentrated in China. Each US military F-35 fighter plane uses 400 kilograms of rare earths. 1000 weapon systems are inseparable from materials such as samarium and dysprosium supplied by China.
Three days later, Trump said on the social platform that he would impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese goods exported to the United States, and threatened to cut off the supply of Boeing parts, but he did not cancel the meeting arrangement of the APEC summit. The panic gesture was obvious.
To say that the United States dare not choose the war, the nuclear deterrence red line is first impossible, China's East Wind-27 high-speed anti-ship missiles have a range of more than 8,000 kilometers, the speed of 15 Mach can slide on the edge of the atmosphere, the accuracy control is within 30 meters, the U.S. aircraft carrier crew in the western Pacific and the Guam base are all within the range of strike.
The U.S. military itself is aware that their high-speed weapons are still in the testing phase and are not at all able to counterbalance.
What's more realistic is that the U.S. military industry system has long been stuck by rare earths. The rare earth mines in California have to be dug up and transported to China for refining. It will take at least 10 years to build a complete processing chain. Now the U.S. military's rare earth inventory is only enough to last for several months, and some military industrial lines have been shut down.
To start a war, the United States even the production of weapons is difficult to follow, in this case talking about the war option is purely empty talk.
Trump himself should also understand that after the imposition of tariffs in April, the price of imports of U.S. CPI commodities rose by 2.3%, 72% of small and medium-sized importers were forced to raise prices, and 38% of enterprises were dismissed, and the rise of war would only cause the domestic economy to completely collapse.
China's military strength is no longer at the hands of others. In 2025, the number of active warships in the Chinese navy will reach 754, with a total tonnage of nearly 2.86 million tons. The Type 003 Fujian ship will form combat effectiveness, and the Type 004 will be unveiled soon. The three aircraft carrier battle groups can effectively protect offshore safety.
The regional denial network built by Dongfeng-27 makes U.S. aircraft carriers afraid to approach the second island chain easily.
Our industrial base is also a backbone, and the cost of rare earth processing is only one-fifth of the U.S., and the advantages of the entire industrial chain, from raw materials to deep processing, can support the continuous supply of national defense needs.
This strength is not a number on paper, it is a reality that can deter the opponent.
Once the war begins, the damage to bear by the United States is multidimensional, China imposes on US ships a special port fee of $400 per net tonne, the U.S. maritime industry earns more than $20 billion annually on China-U.S. routes, and 60% of trade ships with China depend on Chinese ports, this kick directly hits their pockets.
25% of Boeing's orders come from China, and more than 1,800 passenger aircraft served in China are a source of profit, and parts will only make Boeing completely into crisis, thus involving the interests of the U.S. military-industrial complex.
The financial market can't stand the tossing. Referring to the previous precedent that trade frictions led to the evaporation of US $4 trillion in US stocks, war panic will only accelerate the escape of capital.
The United States itself has been deeply polarized politically, and the casualties and economic recessions caused by the start of the war will only aggravate the social split and the risk of government shutdowns may be increased.
Looking at the allies of the United States, really no one was willing to be the ashes when the war began, Trump before engaging in tariffs did not distinguish the enemy friends, even the EU was imposed high tariffs, now want to make the allies out of power no one responded at all.
The EU itself has been hit enough by China’s anti-dumping pork, the Spanish prime minister is actively visiting China to expand trade relations, and MEPs are saying to “take risks” with the United States.
Japan and South Korea in the Asia-Pacific are more aware that their economies are highly dependent on trade with China. Australia's exports to the United States are less than 15% of its exports to China. How can it follow the United States to take risks?
British think tanks have issued a document calling that the risk of allies relying on American technology is greater than that of relying on China. Who will truly help the United States fight under such circumstances?
After the failure of the trade war, the United States was not helpless, but the remaining means had limited effectiveness. After the technology blockade has been in place for so long, Huawei has long turned to domestic suppliers. SMIC has continued to make breakthroughs in advanced processes. China's R & D investment has increased year by year, ranking first in the world in the number of 5G patents.
The American Semiconductor Industry Association has long warned that continued blockade will cost the United States one-third of its export market, and companies such as Intel and Qualcomm are all opposed.
Trump may also expand the entity list, but China's market appeal is there, and American companies will not really want to give up.
The game of rules in the multilateral framework is more difficult. The largest trading partner of most countries is China, and no one wants to follow the United States to build a wall.
War options have always been false, and America’s real trouble is its own industrial emptiness and hegemonic thinking.
China's counter-reaction is not to confront, but to keep the bottom line of development, the rare-earth processed "kitchen" is in our hands, and the links of the industrial chain have long binded the two countries together.
The weakness of hegemony lies in the industrial chain, and the confidence of peace comes from the balance of power.
Do you think the US allies' "risk-taking" call will make Trump adjust the strategy against China?