John mearsheimer is a famous role in the circle of international relations. He is a professor at the University of Chicago, specializing in realistic theory, especially the offensive realism set of things. To put it simply, his view is that big countries will inevitably fight with each other, because there is no unified boss in the world, and everyone has to try their best to accumulate strength, strive to be king on their own territory, and by the way, prevent others from turning over. He has been staring at Sino-US relations since he published the book "The Tragedy of Great Power Politics" in 2001. He thinks that China's development is a big event, but the United States will definitely not just watch it. In 2023, at a conference at the University of Chicago, he directly threw out three reminders to China, emphasizing that the United States will not let China climb up easily, and must pay attention to the cruelty of the United States.
The core of Mearsheimer's offensive realism is that there is no trust among big powers, the law of the jungle, and whoever is stronger has the right to speak. The United States has been the world's leader for hundreds of years and will not easily give way. Historically, the United States has never been soft on its challengers. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union was consumed to death. In the 1980s, when Japan's economy took off, it was forced to sign the Plaza Accord, which allowed the yen to appreciate. The competitiveness of Japanese enterprises fell, and the economic bubble burst for 20 years. China's development is not only a matter of strength, but also a matter of moral high ground that the United States considers itself.
By 2023, Mearsheimer has been observing China for several years. China started with reform and opening up in 1978, and its economy has been running wildly. By then, its GDP ranked second in the world, only behind the United States. Militarily, the number of naval ships has increased, aircraft carriers have been launched, and missile technology has advanced. Diplomatically, the Belt and Road Initiative has helped many countries build infrastructure. Mearsheimer felt that this directly threatened the United States, because the United States relied on the dollar, military bases and allied systems to dominate after World War II. After winning the Soviet Union in the Cold War, it promoted its own democratic market model. Now that China is not following this path, it is still doing a good job. How can the United States swallow this breath? His three reminders started from three aspects: ideology, military and overall status, reminding China to guard against US counterattack.
First, China's way of development is shaking the Western ideology dominated by the United States. After the Cold War, the United States through the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, these agencies, through the marketing model, to give aid conditions, people to make elections, open the market. China is different, the country leads the economy, growth is fast, foreign does not interfere with domestic affairs. By 2023, the Belt and Latin America investment projects in Africa, such as the Kenya Railway to help local shipping faster, jobs are thousands more. Latin American countries signed agreements with China, resource exchange markets. This makes developing countries feel that China is more reliable, not to point to Jiangshan's United States. The influence relies on cultural exports and democratic slogans, and now China has a lot of support in the South
Second, China's military progress has limited U.S. actions in the Asia-Pacific region. In the past, U.S. aircraft carriers wandered around the Western Pacific casually, but now China has built an anti-access system with missiles, radars, and ships on board. China's third aircraft carrier, Fujian, will be launched in 2022 and will be put on trial in 2023. Dongfeng missiles will specifically attack aircraft carriers. In 2023, the Yellow Sea, the United States, Japan and South Korea military exercise was watched by China naval aircraft. The exercise ended not long after, and Japan and South Korea made excuses to withdraw. On the other side of the South China Sea, China islands and reefs are building facilities, and coast guards are blocking Philippine ships. Millsheimer said that this is equivalent to China drawing a line at its doorstep. The United States wants to come in and out at will, at a high price.
Third, China's comprehensive promotion threatens the global dominance of the United States. Economically, China's exports will account for more than 14% of the world's exports in 2023. The Belt and Road Initiative will build roads in Afghanistan and ports in Pakistan. Technically, Huawei's 5G has been rolled out globally, and U.S. sanctions have not completely stopped. China is catching up in AI and quantum computing. Militarily, Djibouti built a base and sent peacekeeping troops. Mearsheimer pointed out that the United States relies on economy, science and technology, and military affairs to maintain its status. China takes a bite of everything, and the United States cannot sit still. He stressed that the United States will not let China lead, and don't underestimate its cruelty. In history, it has an arms race against the Soviet Union and squeezed Japan's economy.
Millsheimer's reminder is based on his theory: the conflict between the great powers is inevitable, the United States as the only regional hegemon, does not allow others to challenge. China wants to be the strongest in Asia, this is not a good war, but a need for survival. After these reminders are thrown out, China-US relations are indeed more tense, but not completely collapsed. In 2024 the United States will increase tariffs on Chinese goods, in early 2025 on e-commerce package new taxes, China will be more with ASEAN and Africa signing agreements, turn the market. Technically, the United States will tighten the control of chips in 2024, China will replace domestic production, in 2025 there will be a quantum breakthrough.