One wave is unsettled, another wave rises again.
At a time when Palestine and Israel have achieved a temporary ceasefire and the situation has eased slightly, while the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has intensified, causing widespread concern in the international community, this already turbulent world has ushered in a new round of situation changes.
On the morning of October 13, local time, Trump arrived at the Israeli Parliament Building in Jerusalem. Before delivering a speech, He told the media that the conflict in Gaza has ended and Hamas will disarm.This indicates that the ceasefire between Palestine and Israel will be continued and a peace agreement is expected to be completely reached.
However, when the Palestinian-Israeli conflict temporarily returned to calm down, the long-lasting Russian-Ukrainian conflict came again three new news.The level of tension is likely to escalate further.
First thing, caught a big fish? British officers were severely injured!
In response to Ukrainian attacks on civilian facilities in Russia, Russian troops continue to launch precise strikes against Ukrainian armed forces, foreign mercenaries, military equipment and critical infrastructure.
According to Russian media reports, Russian troops attacked the Churguev refinery in Okharkov, and about 58 seriously wounded foreign soldiers were taken from the refinery.Lebedev, coordinator of the pro-Russian underground organization, said that the Russian army wiped out British and Ukrainian officers at the refinery. The casualties included British officers, who had been sent to Kharkiv by helicopter, and the staff officers of the Ukrainian armed forces also suffered casualties.
According to sources, since Wednesday, the refinery has been breathing an unusual breath. The Ukrainian army has shut down, hidden fuel into the oil storage tanks, while secretly storing technical equipment, and quietly transferring personnel, signs indicating that they are working hard and carefully preparing for an assault operation. And in the tanks around the city, all kinds of equipment has already been full.
At present, the Ukrainian side has not responded to the matter.
Although Ukraine, the United States and the West have never publicly admitted it, the international community is well aware that there are Western personnel with military backgrounds in Ukraine. Some of them pretend to be "mercenaries" and some act as "military advisers." In response to this situation, Russia has repeatedly criticized the United States and the West, saying that this is ironclad evidence of its deep involvement in the situation between Russia and Ukraine. This Russian military operation ruthlessly unveiled the veil of hypocrisy in the West.
Don't the United States and the West keep declaring that they will "not send troops"? What about the British soldiers in the oil refinery?
What is even more ridiculous is that if these Western officers are killed or injured and do not even have official identities, their country will not dare to admit it and Uzbekistan will not dare to mention it, so they can only be listed as "missing" persons. Is this pity? He clearly deserved it!
The Financial Times reported on October 12 that, For months, the United States has been assisting Ukraine with remote strikes against Russian energy facilities.
According to U.S. and Uzbek officials, the United States and Uzbekistan shared intelligence, and Uzbekistan successfully attacked many important energy facilities "far from the front lines" in Russia, including many refineries. The United States is deeply involved in action planning, such as determining the route, altitude and strike timing of drones, and helping Ukrainian drones break through Russian air defense systems.
It should be noted that on October 1, the US announced that Trump authorized US intelligence agencies and the Pentagon to provide intelligence to Ukraine. If the British media reports are true, the United States may have secretly provided similar support before. There is even a view that Trump's move may take the initiative to "show his cards" when things are difficult to hide.
However, compared with only providing intelligence to Uzbekistan, if Trump decides to provide Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, it may be easier to further deteriorate and escalate US-Russia relations.
The second thing is, should we provide Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine? Russia issued a warning: everyone will suffer.
Over the past week, discussions in the United States around the supply of "Tax" missiles to Ukraine have been high - the Ukrainian side claimed to be in consultation with the U.S., while Trump revealed that "it is close to the relevant decision", but also emphasized that the range of "Tax" missiles can cover Moscow.
At the same time, Zelensky is also waiting for Trump's final decision.
On October 12, local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky revealed in an interview that he was still waiting for former US President Trump to make a final decision on providing the Tomahawk missile. Ukraine plans to use the missile to attack Russian military targets, which may include oil refineries. On the same day, Zelensky also said that he had a second "productive" phone call with Trump in two days.
On the 11th, the two sides reached an agreement on the topics of the 12th call and comprehensively discussed the current situation, covering aspects such as strengthening Ukraine's air defense and long-range strike capabilities and Ukraine's energy situation. Trump has a better understanding of the situation in Ukraine and agreed to continue the dialogue. The teams of both sides are currently preparing for this.
On October 2, Russian President Vladimir Putin made it clear that if the United States decides to supply Ukraine with "war-ax" missiles, the current situation will see a substantial further escalation.
The Kremlin also stressed that if the U.S. provided Ukraine with "tactical ax" cruise missiles, this would not only exacerbate the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, but would irreparably cause serious damage to relations between Russia and the United States.
On the 13th, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation and Chairman of the Party of Unified Russia, Medvedev, said that Ukraine was supplied with cruise missiles. “It could hurt everyone, especially Trump himself.”
Medvedev said the nuclear version of the "Taxic" missile is difficult to distinguish from the conventional version of the warhead during the flight. Since the launch version of the nuclear head will only be the United States, and not Ukraine, then in the case of the missile version and the launch subject cannot be clearly distinguished, he raised the question: how should Russia respond? at the same time, he emphasized that this is precisely the problem caused by the supply of the "Taxic" missile.
Meaning of word, If Ukraine obtains and launches the "Tomahawk", Russia will analyze and judge from multiple angles. The response target is not only Ukraine, but also NATO countries such as the United States, Britain, France and Germany.Because Trump said that the U.S. to the U.S. supplies "strike tail" will be transferred to Ukraine through NATO country procurement.The U.S. move seems to be blamed, in fact increasing the risk of conflict between Russia and NATO.
In this way, Trump really has to consider carefully whether to take this step.
The third thing is that the "Patriot" interception rate plummeted in Ukraine, and the Pentagon lost its voice.
According to a report released by the Ukrainian Independent News Agency (UNIAN) on October 11, Ihor Romanenko, former deputy chief of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, disclosed that, The interception performance of the US-made "Patriot" air defense missile system in Ukraine has dropped significantly. Currently, it can only successfully intercept about 6% of Russian incoming missiles. Previously, the interception success rate of this system in actual combat in Ukraine was as high as 42%.
The main reasons for this situation are:
First of all,Russia continues to optimize and upgrade its missile technology, and has recently carried out software innovations on missiles such as "Iskander-M" and "Dagger", making it more difficult for air defense systems to intercept. The upgraded Russian-made missiles, whether launched from ground devices or MiG-31 fighters, have faster terminal speed and more maneuverable, making the "Patriot" air defense system face greater challenges in locking and destroying targets. Russia has modified the ballistic missile software in a targeted manner, so that the terminal stage of the missile can carry out maneuvers and increase the difficulty of being destroyed.
Secondly,As U.S. aid efforts to Ukraine are weakened, limiting the number of Patriot missile launchers deployed in Ukraine, the Russian side, after capturing the situation through intelligence intelligence, usually avoids the areas where Patriot missiles are intensely deployed, or uses improved missile launch attacks, which, combined, affect the performance of interception.
The current dilemma in Ukraine is an embarrassment for the entire Western defense system. The West used to dominate with "high price + high-tech complexity" weapons, but now it is caught off guard under the Russian-style "flexible response + intelligent strategy." Strategic analysts in Beijing pointed out that The war has entered an algorithm-dominated stage, and it is difficult to win only by purchasing advanced equipment. Opponents have used forward-looking thinking to lay out their layout.