Source: Direct News
U.S. President Trump is concerned about providing Ukraine with range to cover MoscowThe attitude of the "Tomahawk" cruise missile is becoming more and more obvious, and there are more and more signs that Ukrainian President Zelensky is likely totoRecently visited the United States to finalize this matter.
Russia, on the other hand, has intensified public opposition, in particular Vice-President of the Security Council of the Russian Federation and Chairman of the Party of Unified Russia Medvedev.On the 13th, it said that supplying Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine "may cause disaster to everyone, especially Trump himself." What is the key point of this statement? What are the implications for China?
The “Tax” nuclear arsenal was countered by the Russians?
Medvedev isThe statement on the 13th is this: the nuclear warhead version of the Tomahawk cruise missile is simply indistinguishable from the regular version during flight. The launcher of the nuclear warhead version will not be Ukraine, but the United States. Unable to distinguish between the missile version and the launcher, Medvedev asked: How should Russia respond? He pointed out that this is the problem with supplying Tomahawk missiles.
American system"Tomahawk" isType 1 all-weather subsonic universal multi-purpose cruise missile，Its characteristics include long range, low altitude of flight, has a certain hidden ability, strong defense ability and survival ability, and good injury effect, strong universality., can be launched from various platforms, so the three armed forces in the United States have corresponding models.
All types of cruise missiles.The size, weight, propeller, launch platform are basically the same, the differences are mainly the bullethead, engine and steering system.In other words, they have the same."External", the difference cannot be distinguished by naked eyes or detection equipment.
More importantly, althoughThe "Taxic" has participated in many wars in the U.S. Army since its service, and even more often used in the first wave of strike missions, is a proven very effective long-range strike weapon, but its nuclear properties are also obvious, only the U.S. military has never been used in the battlefield, and has left many people to ignore this.
Actually, the submarine-launched versionIt was carried by the “Tax”.W80 nuclear bomb，Explosion coverage5000 to 150,000 tons of TNT, butThrough four modified ships“Ohio is”class strategic nuclear submarineConductDistribution of single boat maximum capacity.154 piecesIts tactical nuclear deterrent capabilities cannot be underestimated.
"Ohio" class strategic submarineLaunchedUGM-109“Tomahawk”The cruise missile moment.。(Data map)
So from this point of view, Medvedev’s statement is quite reasonable.We try to do it in a more conventional way."Translate" this passage: Once the United States provides Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, how do I know whether the Tomahawk flying towards Russia was launched by Ukraine or the United States, and whether it will still be a nuclear warhead version? In this case, Russia can only respond according to the worst-case scenario, which is to use my nuclear means to deal with the Tomahawk.
This is calculated by the US. Of Providing a standard model to UkraineThe "Tomahawk" used the "strategic clarity" of forcing Russia to return to the negotiating table, which was forcibly rejected by Russia with creative "strategic ambiguity", and even rose to the level of nuclear confrontation.
For Trump,Whether to provide Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine or not has become a dilemma. If he cancels the supply of "Tomahawk" to Ukraine because he is worried about Russia's nuclear counterattack, what will Trump's face be? If the "Tomahawk" is provided to Ukraine at the risk, but Ukraine's use is restricted in order to reduce risks, or even notifies relevant information to Russia in order to distance itself when Ukraine uses it, such as informing the US military of the deployment of the "Tomahawk". Location or usage, wouldn't it become an international laughingstock again?
What enlightenment does Russia's statement bring?
Although will the United States ultimately provide UkraineThe cruise missile is unknown yet, but Medvedev’s “creative strategy is vague.”，by JANRussia's strategic game capabilities and handles as an old-fashioned power are unmistakable.
In my opinion, China can refer to Russia's statement to deal with the continued provocations of the United States and its regional allies around China. Moreover, compared with Russia's response to a still uncertain situation, the current situation in China's periphery is more clear, and similar expressions are needed to convey China's firm position of resolutely safeguarding its own interests.
First of all, Japan should listen to China's position. As early asIn 2022, Japan began negotiations to introduce 500 U.S. "Taxic" cruise missiles to enhance the so-called "preemptive" strike capabilities, that is, to "unlock" the self-defense's offensive attributes, and for this purpose plans to modify all eight "Zeus Shield" destroyers owned by the marine self-defense until 2027, so that it can carry the "Taxic".In October 2023, the U.S. Defense Minister agreed unanimously to advance the time for Japan to purchase U.S. "Taxic" cruise missiles until 2025.will purchaseThere are 400 war-torpedo missiles.
According to the World Times this month.On the 1st, CNN reported that the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force's King Kong-class destroyer "Torosea"The ship is on its way to the United States for a one-year deployment. During this period, the ship will be modified and crew training so that it will be able to launch about a range.A 1000-mile (about 1609 kilometers) Tomahawk cruise missile.
Japanese Maritime Self-Defense ForceMissile destroyer “Birds Sea” (data map)
Considering that the US troops stationed in Japan are also heavily equippedTomahawk missiles, especially surface ships and submarines of the Seventh Fleet, can also launch such cruise missiles. We have every reason to say that if the "Tomahawk" strikes one day, we will not be able to tell whether it was Japan's launch.OfOr the US military launch in Japan; if it is the US military launch, in the end it is a nuclear warhead version or a conventional warhead version, we have no distinction, we can never wait.China must take the worst circumstances as a consideration for the counter-attack, and, moreover, this does not violate our principle of not using nuclear weapons first.
For Japan, it is necessary to think carefully about whether to lift the ban on offensive methods that are contrary to the Peace Constitution, or whether to import them from the United States on a large scaleTomahawk missile. For the United States, it can either manage the use of the "Tomahawk" by the "little brother", or it can only completely withdraw from Japan or even withdraw the US military stationed in South Korea to prove that the US military has no "Tomahawk" deployed in the region.
In addition to Japan, the Philippines should also listen to China’s voice. Last year, the United States, under the pretext of joint military exercises, deployed a series of military exercises to the Philippines.“Tifong” medium-range missile system and refused to withdraw after the incident.local wordsTo introduce the system, and get the troops to learn how to practice with the US military.
"Typhon" medium-range missile system. (Data map)
to know,The main means of attack of the "Tifon" missile system, also based on the "Tax" cruise missile, also applies this "creative vague" warning. and the "Tifon" system is not entirely under the control of the Philippines, but brings itself a huge strategic danger, is it to be unpaid?
If the United States wants to deploy more troops in Japan"Teifeng", we might as well say this again, and the Japanese government should consider it carefully.
Author 丨 Lin Xiao