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by ÎÄ ·½ÕÉ

Edit | Lucky

The first heavens.

The Preface:

At the end of the conversation, the expression of the finance minister explained everything ¨C the eyebrows rattled like a bad debt on the book, and a single word passed through anxiety.

The reporter next to him was about to ask the question, but she pressed out only 11 short words, and in a moment of silence she could hear the breath.

Previously full of confidence American netizens, after reading this phrase, exploded the pot: "This time, it's really different."

What happened? In a word, why did the entire public opinion field suddenly change?

Rare earth control upgrade: the profound meaning from 7 to 12 kinds

October 9 this year may be just an ordinary working day for many people.

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce dropped a heavy-pound bomb on the same day, expanding the scope of rare earth export controls from the original seven to 12.

The five newly added rare earth metals sound strange, holmium, erbium, thulium, europium and ytterbium, which ordinary people can't even read.

What is so special about these metals? For example, if chips are the brain of modern industry, then rare earths are the blood that makes the brain work.

Without rare earths, the iPhone in your hand is just a brick, the Tesla is just an iron case, and the F-35 fighter can't fly.

China accounts for more than 90% of global rare-earth production, and even worse, Rare earth processing technology is almost monopolized by China.

Although Australia and Vietnam also have mines, the excavated raw ore has to be sent to China for processing, otherwise it will be a pile of soil.

The new regulations of the Ministry of Commerce are interesting.

Not only rare earths exported directly from China must be managed, but even rare earths products produced abroad using China technology must also apply for licenses.

This is like saying, no matter where you are, as long as you use my exclusive secret, you have to pass my consent.

The Customs Department immediately followed up and adjusted the number of goods to ensure that every gram of rare earth was in control.

Qualcomm Lying Gun: The Timing of Antitrust Investigation is Intriguing

On the same day that the rare-earth control announcement was released, China¡¯s market regulatory authority announced an anti-monopoly investigation into Qualcomm¡¯s U.S. companies.

The reason is simple ¨C Qualcomm acquired an Israeli automotive internet chip company called Autotalks in June this year, without reporting to China as required.

The company is not a small company. The Chinese market is full of food, and the market share of mobile phone chips is huge.

According to the news, the price of Qualcomm stock dropped directly before the record.

The General Bureau of Market Regulation, however, is very discreet, saying that this is the daily law enforcement, which should be checked.

Everyone understands that this time began the investigation, and the meaning behind it is unclear.

Qualcomm is in a rather awkward position now.

The Chinese market is its cash cow and can't afford to offend; The U.S. government is also pressuring for cooperation in sanctions against China.

In the middle, both are difficult.

Trump¡¯s counterattack: A 100% tariff game

The Trump man will never be able to swallow.

On the evening of 10 October, the day after China announced rare-earth controls, he could not sit.

Directly announce the addition of 100% tariffs on all Chinese imports from November 1.

Note that this is ¡°extra¡±. Originally, there were already tariffs ranging from 25% to 125%, and now add 100%.

With an account, you know how crazy it is.

A Chinese product originally priced at $100 may cost American consumers more than $300 to buy it after all tariffs are added.

Trump was not satisfied, and announced the implementation of export controls on key software, threatening to cancel the scheduled Sino-US meeting.

He called China's rare earth control "economic coercion" and vowed to make China pay the price.

The question is, are the American people willing to pay for this trade war? Prices are soaring, inflationary pressure is already high, and with 100% tariffs, the prices of goods in supermarkets have to double.

The Dow Jones index fell more than 500 points that day, and investors voted with their feet to express their concern about such extreme measures.

Shenzhen New Kale: Black horse domesticated semiconductor equipment

Just as China and the United States were coming and going, a company called Xinkai in Shenzhen quietly rose.

In March this year, they released 31 independently developed semiconductor equipment at the SEMICON China exhibition in Shanghai, covering 6 categories, all of which were mass-produced.

Orders have exceeded billions.

Shenzhen State-owned enterprise, specializing in semiconductor equipment manufacturing.

They can provide domestic equipment for diffusion, thin film deposition, etching, cleaning, measurement, and optical inspection, which are the key links of semiconductor manufacturing.

This means that China is no longer entirely dependent on imports in the field of semiconductor equipment and has its own bottom line.

From October 15 to 17, Shenzhen will also host the Bay Core Exhibition. More than 600 enterprises led by Xinkailai will make a collective appearance.

It is expected that tens of thousands of professional visitors will participate, which is a concentrated display of the strength of China's semiconductor industry.

Huawei is also working hard in the field of AI chips, and it is said that their computing chip cluster performance has exceeded the cutting-edge products offered by NVIDIA to China.

The ripple effects of global supply chains

Asme in the Netherlands was the first to feel the pressure.

As the world¡¯s leading manufacturer of optical engraving machines, their equipment has two key components that are inseparable from rare earth: lasers and magnets.

Once China's rare-earth controls came out, Asma began to have a headache.

They had to notify major customers such as Taipei, Intel, and Samsung that equipment delivery could be delayed for weeks.

In 2024, the United States will purchase nearly US $40 billion in semiconductor equipment from five companies including ASML alone.

Many parts of these equipment require rare earths. Now that the supply chain is broken, the entire industry is affected.

TSMC has to adjust its production plan, Samsung has to reassess its inventory, and Intel's new factory construction may have to be delayed.

Nvidia's share price also suffered.

Although they are not directly dependent on rare earth, the entire semiconductor industry chain is one. If there is a problem in the upstream, the downstream will inevitably be affected.

Mobile phones, computers, and car chips may all face tight supply, and consumers will eventually have to pay for it.

Strategic considerations behind the game

This spring, China and the United States had agreed on a trade war truce, and both sides wanted to ease relations.

U.S. suddenly escalated sanctions on Chinese chip companies at the end of September, breaking that balance.

China¡¯s counterattack is very chapter-legal. Rare-earth regulation plus anti-monopoly investigation and soft and hard implementation.

The number of rare earth cards in China is very heavy.

Not simply a resource advantage, but more importantly a technological monopoly.

Mining rare earths is only the first step. Separating, purifying and processing them into various functional materials requires complex technology at each step.

China has been deeply involved in this field for decades and has established a complete industrial chain.

Other countries want to establish independent rare earth supply chains, but it will take ten years to achieve it.

The United States is also trying to get rid of its dependence on China.

China is promoting the development of the rare earth industry, Trying to establish local supply chains.

The problem is that long water can not resolve near thirst, technology accumulation and production capacity construction will take time.

Trump's 100% tariff is more like a political gesture. Can the U.S. economy withstand it if it is actually implemented?

Who blinks first?

This competition tests the endurance of both sides.

China has the trump card of rare earths, and the United States has market and technological advantages.

In the short term, no one can easily give in, and the confrontation can last for a while.

Companies begin to evaluate risks and look for alternatives. Supply chain diversification has become a hot topic.

In the long run, extreme confrontation will benefit no one.

In the era of globalization, the industrial chain is highly intertwined, with me among you and you among me.

The cost of forced decoupling is too high, and we will eventually have to return to the negotiating table.

The question is, how much will the two sides pay before that, and how much will the global economy be impacted?

Conclusion:

To tell the truth, watching this technology trade war intensify makes me feel very complicated.

On the one hand, China finally has the ability to arm wrestle with the United States, and the rare earth card is played very beautifully.

The rise of companies like New Cayenne shows that we are making breakthroughs in key technology areas.

On the other hand, this confrontation escalation is harmful to the global economy. The common people will ultimately have to pay for the politicians 'game.

The ideal outcome is for both sides to calm down and realize that cooperation is a win-win situation.

Scientific and technological progress requires global collaboration, and artificial barriers will only slow down the pace of innovation.

It is hoped that this dispute can end sooner, allowing enterprises to return to normal competition and allow consumers to enjoy the dividends of scientific and technological progress.

After all, the 21st century, even with the Cold War thinking to confront, is really too backward.