Hamas has released all living Israeli detainees. Trump's special plane landed in the Middle East and received a gift from Israel. He called "The war is over" three times in a row, but is it really over? The new storm has just begun.
Following the ceasefire agreement, Israel and Hamas began the exchange of hostages.
Hamas has released all the living Israeli hostages, a total of 20, and agreed to return the bodies of 28; at the same time, 2,000 Palestinian hostages are also seated on the bus, and they will also be released when Israeli hostages safely arrive.
Looking here, some would think that the “deal” with 20 people in exchange for 2,000 is not bad for Hamas, otherwise Israel, especially Netanyahu, would be the biggest beneficiary.
First, Israel was eager to release 2,000 people because the Palestinians were well-held and could be caught at any time; but Hamas struggled for years to catch a little of the Israeli hostage, which they delivered not only 20 people, but a long-running undercover.
Moreover, most of the people released by Israel were ordinary Palestinian people, but key figures were not released.
According to reports, Hamas was still fighting for better conditions at the last minute before the signing of the agreement, especially requiring Israel to release senior Hamas commander Barghouti and People's Liberation Front leader Saadat, but these two names ultimately did not appear on the release list.
To put it simply, the Palestinians can be rearrested at any time, but Hamas 'lost strategic deterrence will take years to rebuild, which means that the initiative is still in the hands of Israel.
The statement that Hamas members “will do their best to resist” is pale and helpless in this situation.
Second, Israel demonstrated amazing efficiency in this exchange, completing the entire process from confirming hostage identity to safe transfer in less than 24 hours.
In his speech to the parliament, Netanyahu emphasized that "no Israeli can be left behind".
According to an instant poll conducted by the Israel Institute for Democracy, Netanyahu's approval rating instantly rebounded by 12 percentage points after the successful hostage exchange.
That is to say, the release of 2,000 Palestinians in exchange for the domestic public’s recognition of the government’s ability to handle the hostage crisis, which is not a bad thing for Netanyahu.
And Trump obviously also realized the political value of this moment and went to Israel on a special plane.
In a speech to the Israeli parliament, he repeated three times that “the war has ended,” a dramatic expression that is more a declaration of peace than a pretext for his next year’s Nobel Peace Prize.
What's even more interesting is that Netanyahu completely admired Trump's characteristics. Trump was presented with an award in person-the "Israel Award", which is Israel's highest honor, and Trump was also the first non-Jew to receive this honor.
As for the reason: "Trump is Israel's greatest friend ever in the White House".
After the spiritual reward, there is the material reward. Netanyahu gave Trump a golden pigeon made of gold. The meaning is very clear: "pigeon" symbolizes "peace", and Trump likes gold.
It can be said that every step accurately found what Trump wanted, so Trump happily announced that this was his happiest day. He finally waited for this day.
He went to Egypt to attend the Sham Sheikh Peace Summit and signed the Gaza Declaration with the leaders of Qatar, Turkey and Egypt.
All this seems to be peaceful, and the conflict in Gaza seems to have ended under Trump’s push.
But things are far from that simple.
The guarantee agreement he signed at the Sham Sheikh Peace Summit actually only completed the easiest first phase – the hostage exchange and a partial ceasefire.
The real conundrum is surfacing.
Israel insists that Hamas completely disarm, while members of Hamas's Politburo have made it clear that they will never lay down their arms unless Palestinian statehood is achieved. This fundamental opposition has been described by Egyptian intelligence as an "insurmountable gap".
What is even more difficult is that there is so far no clear plan for the ownership of management rights in the Gaza Strip. Israel refuses to co-govern with Hamas, but the Palestinian National Authority lacks a public opinion base in Gaza and is difficult to govern alone.
In addition, how the reconstruction funds are allocated is also a problem.
Russian Federation Security Council Chairman Dmitry Medvedev’s warning is not overwhelming.
In his long paper on X, he made it clear that the conflict would inevitably repeat itself unless a Palestinian state was established on the basis of a UN resolution.
This opinion is supported by most Middle Eastern experts.
As long as oppression continues, the fire of rebellion will remain forever.The families who buried their loved ones in the ruins are likely to be raising the next group of Hamas.
The latest report from a research center in Lebanon shows that more than 670,000 people in the Gaza Strip have lost their homes, and their survival difficulties are becoming a breeding ground for extreme ideas. One alarming figure in the report is that 43% of Gaza youth who have lost loved ones said they would consider joining the resistance.
And Trump’s proud “20 Peace Plan” actually avoided the most central issue of the establishment timetable.Analysts pointed out that the plan took a “strategic ambiguity” on the issue of Palestinian rights, which could bury the hidden danger of subsequent conflict.
In addition, the Israeli army remains highly alert after the ceasefire line.
While Netanyahu has said the conflict in Gaza has ended, he has repeatedly stressed that Israel will stop fighting only if it is completely safe and will re-attack once Hamas takes action.
Israel's statement, Hamas's inability to easily lay down its weapons and other factors doomed the war to not end so easily. The ceasefire is not the end, but another form of game-exchanging temporary calm for a window for strategic adjustment.
No one knows whether the ceasefire is the beginning of peace or the countdown to the next conflict. Under the negotiating table, all parties are accumulating chips for the possible next round.