The U.S. Treasury Secretary shouted to China that the United States can cancel new tariffs on China, but there is one prerequisite: China must lift restrictions on rare earth export. So, is the United States really qualified to negotiate conditions? What does Besant's so-called "preconditions" expose the psychology of the United States?

In the past week, the drama of the US-China trade war turned again. Just after Trump announced high-profile to increase 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, triggering a global market crash, on October 13 local time, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent appeared in the face of "extinguishing fire", saying "tax increases to China do not necessarily happen", and stressed China-U.S. relations "are greatly relaxed".

To understand why the attitude of the United States has taken a sharp turn for the worse, we must see one thing clearly. This time, China's anti-braking is not only the cheese of trade, but the lifeblood of American industry. Just before Trump announced the imposition of new tariffs, China directly introduced new rare earth regulations, expanded the scope of export controls, and added five new rare earth elements to the approval list. You know, rare earths are key materials that missiles, radars, and fifth-generation aircraft are inseparable from. In other words, what China has moved is the root of the U.S. military industry, technology and even the entire strategic supply chain.

It was also at this point that Bessent publicly called the US-China relationship "significantly eased" and said that the new tariffs could be cancelled. But at the turn of his speech, he added: China must lift the restrictions on rare-earth exports. That is, the United States is willing to slow down, but provided that China wants to make concessions.

Besent's statement actually exposed the anxiety within Washington. When China introduced rare earth controls, American military and high-tech companies were "shot" almost at the same time. From missiles to new energy equipment, almost all core components are inseparable from rare earths, and China happens to control nearly 80% of the world's supply chain. This time, the strengthening of export control not only expands the scope of restrictions, but also adds export review of five new rare earth elements. For the United States, this move can be said to be a seven-inch attack.

This is why the U.S. internal reaction was strong. The White House faced multiple pressures from military industrial groups, manufacturing giants, and even the financial markets. Just days before the Besson speech, Trump just announced the increase of 100% tariffs, resulting in the U.S. equity response fell sharply, and the Standard Pew 500 index made the biggest drop in the second half of the year. The capital market foot vote forced the White House to re-evaluate the consequences of this tariff hoax.

However, China's position has always been clear, and counter-measures are a legitimate response to safeguarding national security, not a tool for trade war. A spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce made it clear that China's export control "will, as always, license applications that meet the regulations" and has informed the US of the new regulations through bilateral mechanisms. This "bottom line and flexibility" strategy not only maintains strategic strength, but also leaves room for negotiation. Data show that in the first three quarters of 2024, China's import and export of goods trade increased by 4% year-on-year, of which exports to "the belt and road initiative" countries increased by 12%, indicating that China has reduced its dependence on the United States through market diversification.

At present, despite the U.S. attitude temporarily softened, but the game is far from over. The U.S. is accelerating the "rare-earth safety bill", plans to establish domestic rare-earth refining capacity by 2026, and attract Australia, Canada to form a "de-Chinese" supply chain alliance. This, China needs to strengthen the response from three sides, one is to accelerate the technology upgrade of the rare-earth industry, consolidate the global advantages of refining and processing links. Second is to promote the regional layout of the supply chain, deepen industrial cooperation with ASEAN and the EU. Third is to improve the export control legal system, integrate strategic resource protection into the national security strategy.

In general, the essence of the game is the competition of the great powers over the dominance of the industrial chain in the context of globalization. The United States tries to maintain technological hegemony with tariffs and export controls, while China defends its right to development through rare earth and market countermeasures. When Bessent throws out the condition of "deleting tariffs and requiring Chinese concessions and rare earth", he may underestimate the rationality of China's decision-making - China will not compromise on the core interests, but will not close the door to dialogue. As the Chinese dialect says: "The future of China-US relations depends on whether the United States can learn to find a way to co-exist in mutual respect.