Against the backdrop of tensions between China and the United States, American geostrategic expert George Friedman once bluntly pointed out that if Washington tries to suppress China's development through extreme means, such behavior is tantamount to forcing China's head into the water, and the end result will only make the United States itself decline faster. This view is not groundless, but based on in-depth observations of the global balance of power.
This warning actually reflects the international community’s questioning of U.S. hegemonic tactics, but also confirms the correctness of China’s path to peaceful rise.
Friedman’s analysis stems from a strategic document from the 2022 NATO Madrid Summit, which for the first time listed China as a “systemic challenge,” marking the Western coalition under U.S. leadership beginning to point its head toward the East, ignoring the lessons of history and the logic of reality.
Friedman’s metaphor illustrates the short-sightedness of U.S. policy towards China. Putting China’s head into the water means trying to stifle China’s economic growth momentum through trade wars, technology embargoes and military siege.
Looking back at the Cold War, the United States 'containment of the Soviet Union eventually led to the internal economic collapse of the Soviet Union, but the situation in China is completely different. China has long been integrated into the global value chain and has accumulated a strong industrial foundation and innovation capabilities through reform and opening up.
Friedman emphasized that if the United States continues this confrontation, it will not only be unable to prevent China from moving forward, but will expose its own weaknesses, because China's development model emphasizes mutual benefit and win-win results rather than a zero-sum game. This is vividly reflected in the aviation industry. China has turned to cooperation with European Airbus and signed tens of billions of dollars in orders. This is not only an economic choice, but also a strategic response, demonstrating China's diplomatic wisdom.
Friedman's warning also touched on the fragility of the U.S. ally system. NATO defines China as a challenge, with the intention of wooing Europe to confront it together, but European countries have their own interests. The trade volume between China and the EU continues to grow, exceeding US$800 billion in 2024, making European companies reluctant to easily sacrifice the market.
Friedman believes that the repressive strategy of the United States is equivalent to forcing allies to cut off their own financial ways, which will eventually lead to cracks. In the field of new energy, China's photovoltaic industry accounts for 80% of the world's production capacity. Through technological iteration, it has transformed from polycrystalline silicon to monocrystalline silicon, and the efficiency has increased by more than 20%. This not only meets domestic demand, but also exports to Europe, helping the latter achieve carbon neutrality. and goal.
Compared with the high tariff barriers of the United States, the cooperation offered by China is more attractive, prompting Europe to remain neutral on some issues. Friedman's metaphor reveals the inevitable trend of global power shift. The United States once dominated the world by virtue of its post-World War II advantages, but now its domestic problems are piling up, such as high debt and aging infrastructure.
China, on the other hand, has connected more than 150 countries through the Belt and Road Initiative, with total investments of more than $1 trillion, projects that drive economic growth along the road to ports, in contrast to the U.S.-led aid model, which often adds political conditions.
China's development path focuses on sustainable development. For example, in the digital economy, the penetration rate of mobile payments reaches 95%. The upgrade from the Alipay era to blockchain applications has promoted global financial innovation. This progress made Friedman realize that if the United States blindly confronts, it will only accelerate its own marginalization, because the multipolarity of the world is a foregone conclusion.
Friedman's analysis also extends to the military field. Although NATO documents list China as a challenge, China's military modernization has always adhered to a defensive orientation. The navy has transformed from offshore to ocean, and the aircraft carrier formation has formed a system. Compared with the initial stage in 2010, the supply and coordination capabilities have been greatly enhanced.
The United States tries to contain China through Asia-Pacific deployment, but ignores geographical reality. China focuses on regional stability, while the United States is globally dispersed and inefficient. Friedman warned that such a military confrontation would consume U.S. resources and ultimately lose power in other regions.
Through platforms such as the SCO, China promotes security cooperation, expanding from counter-terrorism to economic security, and doubling the trade volume of member states, which reflects the pragmatism of China's diplomacy.
In the discussion of economic disconnection, Friedman's view was sharp. The United States pushed "disconnection" to slow China's development, but the result was its own price rise, the inflation rate in 2024 once exceeded 5%. China, through industry chain optimization, electric vehicle exports reached millions, from battery technology to smart networking, achieved the crossing from running to leading, which differs greatly from the pattern of domestic sales in 2010.
This upgrading benefits from the national strategic support, and the proportion of enterprise R&D investment in GDP has risen to more than 2.5%. Friedman believes that the short-sighted policy of the United States is equivalent to drinking poison to quench thirst. Once China makes up for its shortcomings in an all-round way, the western market will face fierce competition, and Chinese products with high quality and low price will become the first choice.
Technological autonomy is at the heart of Friedman's warning. China's breakthroughs in the fields of 5G and artificial intelligence, from the global deployment of Huawei base stations to algorithm optimization, lead the world in the number of patents. Compared with the dependence before the US ban, the autonomy rate has increased by 50%.
This development is promoted by the combination of research and development, iteration from university laboratories to enterprise applications, the engineering team is the world's largest.Friedman believes that the U.S. pressure instead indicates the direction, China's accelerated layout in quantum computing and biotechnology, and related investment in 2025 will double, which will re-shape the global science and technology pattern.
In the financial field, China's digital renminbi has been promoted from a pilot project to the whole country, with a transaction volume exceeding one trillion yuan. Compared with the cash era in 2010, it has achieved a leap forward in a cashless society and promoted the facilitation of cross-border payments. Friedman's point of view reminds us that U.S. sanctions against the financial system will only lead to the rise of alternative mechanisms, such as the expansion of the share of the CIPS system and weakening the hegemony of the US dollar.
China provides low-interest loans through AIIB to help developing countries build infrastructure, from high-speed railways in Africa to power grids in Asia, which focus on localization, unlike the U.S. model, avoiding debt trap accusations.
Friedman's warning revealed the limitations of U.S. strategy. Through continuous reforms, China has transformed from a follower to a leader. The logic of this path is to adhere to peaceful development and mutually beneficial cooperation, and ultimately let the oppressors experience the bitter consequences.
We firmly believe that the spread of this view will promote international understanding and drive the world toward a more equitable direction.