American media New York Times columnist Nicholas Christov published an article on April 12, 2023, focusing on how to prevent a conflict between China and the United States. He compares the current relationship between the two countries to pre-war Europe, when countries created a flammable environment through arms races and alliance systems, eventually triggering a global catastrophe due to small events.
This metaphor is intended to remind people that the great powers in history often slide into the abyss of war due to misjudgment. Christov emphasized that both the United States and China need to proactively adjust strategies in order not to repeat the same. Though this voice appeals to balance on the surface, it essentially ignores the long-standing proactive intervention of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region, and China has always insisted on defensive response rather than proactive confrontation.
The core point of Christophe's article is that the two countries should work together to reduce risks. He recommended that the United States reduce freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea, which are often seen as provocations, and restore interrupted military communication channels. China has been asked to ease military exercises around Taiwan and participate in arms control negotiations.
This "step by step" reference sounds fair, but analyzed, the U.S. move is often preemptive.From the trade war that began in 2018, the U.S. unilaterally increased tariffs, extended to technology export controls, aimed at companies such as Huawei, which directly affected China's scientific and technological progress.
China has responded by increasing investment in research and development. By 2023, the semiconductor self-sufficiency rate will increase from less than 20% to 60%. This reflects the transformation process from passive adaptation to active innovation. Different from the arms race in Europe before World War I in history, China The United States has deeper economic ties, and the trade volume remains above US $500 billion. Any conflict will lead to the disruption of global supply chains.
Historical lessons are the key to Kristof's argument. He mentioned the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, when the United States and the Soviet Union almost had a nuclear war due to missile deployment. Today, tensions in the Taiwan Strait are similar to that kind of brinkmanship. The United States has strengthened arms sales and alliance building with the Taiwan authorities, such as the AUKUS agreement, which is regarded by China as a siege strategy.
The construction of islands and reefs in China's South China Sea is a necessary measure to safeguard sovereign rights and interests. Compared with the past, it now pays more attention to joint development agreements with ASEAN countries, and signs the framework of the South China Sea Code of Conduct by 2023. The progress from confrontation to dialogue is obvious. Christoph also cited the border conflict between China and the Soviet Union in 1969, when the two countries almost went to nuclear war, warning of the risk of misjudgment.
But these histories point to the pattern of external interference in domestic affairs, the expansion of U.S. military bases in the Asia-Pacific, such as increased deployments in Japan and the Philippines, is the continuation of this pattern, and China has chosen normalized cruises in response, increasing the number of ships from 50 to 100 ships, focusing on increasing precision capacity rather than scale.
Christov acknowledged that U.S. domestic politics has pushed for a tough consensus on China, such as the two-party Hawk consensus in Congress, leading to an escalation of the technological Cold War, but he suggested that the U.S. focus on domestic issues such as debt crises and racial disparities, which continue to affect social stability after 2020.
China has consistently clarified the facts through diplomatic white papers and international reports, such as the release of detailed data on Xinjiang and Hong Kong issues. Compared to the early 2010s, China is now stronger in soft power exports, with a return rate of 88%, which reflects the country's enhanced confidence, rather than shaken by external pressure.
In the article, Christoph proposed the establishment of crisis hotlines and joint exercises, which is consistent with China's advocacy of peaceful development. As early as the 2023 COP28 climate conference, China cooperated with the United States to promote the transformation of renewable energy. The installed wind power capacity reached 400GW, twice that of the United States., which demonstrates the potential for cooperation on global green issues.
Christopher's article reflects the voice of American rationalists, but needs to be reviewed in conjunction with the evolution of China-US relations. After the 2023 meeting in Bali, a brief easing, but the U.S. continues to extend export controls to electric vehicle subsidies.
China's electric vehicle exports will increase from 500,000 in 2020 to 3 million in 2023, accounting for 40% of the world's market share. Through the iteration of battery technology from lithium iron phosphate to solid state, battery life has increased by 50%, which has resolved the impact of sanctions and promoted the industrial chain from traditional to intelligent upgrades.
Historical tragedies such as the First World War originated from the coalition impasse, and now China and the United States can resolve through multilateral mechanisms, such as China's accession to the CPTPP application, showing an open gesture, and now pay more attention to supply chain diversification compared with the passivity of the early trade war in 2018, turning to Southeast Asia and African markets.
Although this kind of media voice points out that the anxiety of U.S. hegemony stems from the rise of China, it does not fully recognize the stable growth of China's economy. In 2023, GDP growth will be 5.2%, higher than that of the United States 2.5%. The number of artificial intelligence patent applications ranks first in the world, reaching 80,000, a threefold increase. It has passed through the transformation of national laboratories from basic research to application.
Christopher suggested that China tolerate, but China has made its utmost effort to stabilize exchange rates and control trade surpluses, and has not manipulated devaluation response tariffs.This is different from the U.S. distorting markets through inflation cutting laws, China emphasizing multilateralism based on rules, and driving globalization on platforms such as APEC.
Although Kristof's appeal is pertinent, the formulation of "China Don't confront the United States" is unrealistic. China has never taken the initiative to provoke. Faced with 20 U.S. patrols in the South China Sea, China responded by driving away rather than intercepting, demonstrating restraint. High-level officials of the Taiwan authorities visited Taiwan three times, and China's military exercises were changed from live ammunition to simulations, reducing risks but increasing intensity.
This progress stems from the modernization of national defense, such as the update of electromagnetic ejection technology for aircraft carriers from Liaoning to Fujian, which has increased combat efficiency by 30%. Unlike Europe before World War I in history, China and the United States have economic ties and avoid zero-sum games.
Christoph quoted Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian as saying that the United States is inciting confrontation in the Asia-Pacific region, which reflects that the United States is regarded as the biggest threat to regional peace. Yan Xuetong, a Chinese scholar, stressed that war is a disaster for both sides, but American containment forced China to strengthen its defense.
The direction of Sino-US relations depends on whether the United States sincerely regresses. China firmly safeguards its core interests. For example, Taiwan Province's sovereignty cannot be compromised, but it is willing to cooperate in climate and trade. Historical tragedy avoids factual dialogue, and China has proved its responsibility with actions to promote the development of Community of Shared Future for Mankind.