Screenshot of NATO official website

On October 13, local time, NATO began holding its annual nuclear deterrence exercise codenamed "Firm Noon". As in the past, no nuclear weapons were actually used in this exercise, but participating countries dispatched a large number of fighter jets capable of carrying nuclear weapons.

According to the announcement released on the official website of NATO on the same day, this year, more than 70 aircraft from 14 countries participated in the "Firm Noon" military exercise, including "dual-capability" aircraft with both conventional strike and nuclear strike capabilities, together with intelligence support, aerial refueling and command and control aircraft. With Volcker Air Force Base in the Netherlands as the main hub, the exercise brought together more than 2,000 personnel from NATO member countries, and another task force supported the operation from Denmark.

The website of Ukraine's "Kiev Independent" pointed out that tensions in Europe have intensified in recent days as Russia has continuously warned the United States to "not provide Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine." However, NATO officials said that the "Firm Noon" military exercise has been going on for more than ten years, and this year's exercise has nothing to do with the current state of affairs. Jim Stokes, the official in charge of NATO nuclear policy, emphasized in a statement that the Determined Noon exercise aims to "increase transparency at the right time and place so our allies and the world can fully understand what we are doing." NATO Secretary-General Rutte said the military exercise "sends a clear signal to all potential opponents that we will and can protect all allies from all threats."

The US Defense News website mentioned in related reports that Germany this time sent three "Dragon Tornado" multi-purpose fighter jets to attend, Poland sent three F-16, Finland sent four F-18s. As the host, the Dutch Air Force mobilized the latest U.S.-made F-35 fighter jets, the U.S. Air Force first launched the same type of fighter jets, replacing the previous F-15E fighter bombers. The U.S. Defense Post website said that the Swedish "Old Lion" fighter jets will appear on the field. As a new member of NATO, the Swedish Air Force hopes to increase the conventional air support capabilities through participation in this exercise and enhance the level of cooperation with other countries.

Image of F-35 fighter aircraft (data map)

In addition to the Netherlands and Denmark, the British Rakhine Heights Air Force Base and the Belgian Crane-Brogh Air Force Base will also provide security for these fighter jets.On the first day of the exercise, participants will listen to mission briefings, and the flight subjects will officially start on 14th.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict that lasted for more than three years has shaken the arms control mechanism between Europe, the United States and Russia. Earlier this year, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Verchinin warned that the risk of direct confrontation between nuclear powers continued to rise and Russia was working hard to modernize nuclear warheads and their delivery vehicles. For NATO, one of the focuses of this year's "Firm Noon" exercise is to protect ground nuclear assets from aerial threats, with the number of fighter jets participating in the exercise reaching a new high since 2022.

Stokes said: ¡°In Paris, people are looking for ways to reassure their allies in the (NATO) alliance and across Europe, and looking for strategies to effectively strengthen nuclear deterrence in the current security environment, which we welcome.¡±

Comprehensive translation

Extended reading

Will the ¡°Tax¡± ¡°break¡± into Russia?

The U.S. has recently repeatedly stated that it is likely to supply Ukraine with ¡°Taxic¡± cruise missiles, according to other reports, the U.S. is considering providing Ukraine with ¡°Sow¡± cruise missiles, but the final decision has not yet been made.

So why is the United States so cautious about whether to provide Ukraine with tactics and cruise missiles?How will Russia react if the United States eventually decides to provide Ukraine with the above-mentioned weapons?

Tomahawk cruise missile

Host: On October 12, local time, US President Trump said that if the Russia-Ukraine conflict cannot be resolved, the US may provide Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine. So, how powerful is the "tomahawk"?

The ¡°Tax¡± cruise missile was first equipped by the U.S. Army in the 1980s, and has now developed to the fifth generation, with the U.S. Army currently equipped mainly with the fourth and fifth generations. According to Western media reports, the two types of ¡°Tax¡± have a maximum range of more than 1,000 miles (about 1,600 km), beyond the range of previous U.S. aid missiles, and have posed a threat to Russian military facilities and military bases.

In addition, the "Tax" combat unit weighs about 450 kilograms, heavier than the current Ukrainian military use of long-range suicide drone combat unit, so the power is greater, and the defense capacity is stronger, even if only one or two of the Russian military factories targets, will cause greater damage.

Although there is a possibility that the United States will provide Tomahawks to Ukraine, it will be difficult to achieve large-scale deliveries in the short term. On the one hand, the annual production of Tomahawks is limited, usually less than 100 pieces. In addition to meeting the US military's own use and exports, the amount that can be allocated to Ukraine is relatively limited.

On the other hand, even if Ukraine obtains the "Tax" missile, it will also be in the state of "balloonless weapons".The missile is primarily launched by the U.S. Navy's surface vessels or submarines, and the U.S. Army's "Tefun" system can also be launched, but Ukraine lacks these launches.

"Barracuda" cruise missile

Imagination of the Barracuda cruise missile developed by Anduril Industries (Data Map/International Online)

Presidents: U.S. media citing sources that the U.S. is also considering providing Ukraine with cruise missiles developed by Anduril Industrial Company. It is understood that the U.S. military has not yet officially purchased the missiles. Does this mean that the U.S. plans to let Ukraine test this type of weapons first?

Zhang Xuefeng: Some of the weapons and equipment provided or promised to provide to Ukraine by the United States are often models that are being developed or have just completed development by some companies. For example, the "vampire" anti-drone system previously provided by the United States to Ukraine, as well as the more than 3000 "extended-range attack munitions" it claimed to plan to provide some time ago, are all in this case.

"Barracuda" is a low-cost air-launched cruise missile. Its largest model has a range of about 500 kilometers. Its main advantage is its relatively low price. The low cost of this missile is achieved by reducing performance, so whether it is suitable for high-intensity combat environments needs to be tested in the Russia-Ukraine battlefield. The United States may subsequently improve the missile accordingly based on the inspection results.

Russia's response

Russian S-400 air defense missile system (data map / news)

Why did the U.S. hesitate to provide Ukraine with weapons such as ¡°Taxic¡± and ¡°Fish¡± and what measures could Russia take if the Ukrainian armed forces were equipped with these missiles?

Zhang Feng: The U.S. used to secretly ship weapons to Ukraine and then disclose them abroad to the sudden use of weapons. But this approach is different from before, with U.S. Vice President Wences revealing that the U.S. is considering providing Ukraine with "war-ax" missiles; then U.S. President Trump also expressed the possibility of aid. The U.S. intention to extend the decision cycle to gradually pressure Russia, forcing Russia to return to the negotiating table in the U.S. rhythm. In addition, the U.S. chess may also reflect its concerns that aid missiles could exacerbate the contradiction between the U.S. and Russia.

If the U.S. eventually decides to help, after Ukraine has equipped and used these missiles, Russia can use a variety of interceptor methods to respond. For example, air interceptor fighters such as MiG-31, Su-35, Su-30SM can be sent; at the same time, Russian ground air defense systems such as S-400 and S-300 can also carry out interceptor missions.

In addition to passive defense, Russia can also theoretically take active strategic deterrence to weaken U.S. threats to Russia by escalating the confrontation. For example, Russian fighter jets can intercept U.S. drones flying over the Black Sea, forcing the U.S. to give up or reduce missile aid to Ukraine by escalating contradictions.