The Russia-Ukraine conflict has been raging until now, with people coming and going on the battlefield, and the diplomatic table is constantly seething. When Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov made a move, he stirred up international public opinion. He once said bluntly that peace must be conditional, major powers must guarantee Ukraine's security, and Ukraine must be neutral and independent of NATO. Why did Russia throw an olive branch at the United States but not talk more about talking more with China?
Signals of concessions in Russia-Ukraine deadlock
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict began on February 24, 2022, and over three years later, both sides fell into a consumption war that could not be solved. Russia moved fast from the start, but Ukraine relied on Western aid to overcome, the front stretched, and the Russian economy was severely injured. Western sanctions round after round, energy exports fell, the ruble exchange rate shake, domestic prices rose, and the people's day was tight. The Levada Center poll showed that the support of the Russian people continued to fight was only 27%, and more people were looking forward to negotiations. At this time, the Kremlin was unable to sit down, and had to find the ladder.
On August 24, 2025, Lavrov opened his head in an interview with NBC, pointing out that peace negotiations could guarantee the security of the great powers, including the permanent members of the UN Security Council, to take care of Ukraine’s security affairs. He also stressed that Ukraine must remain neutral, not confuse with any military group, and be non-nuclearized. Russian Foreign Ministry officials also posted interviews online, guaranteeing that the state can guarantee Ukraine’s security, but on the premise that it recognizes the “new territory reality”.
In the battlefield, the Russian army slowly advanced in Donetsk, the Ukrainian counter-attack with NATO weapons, and the consumption of war made the Russian military industry tightened. Economic data are bright, GDP in 2024 increased by 4.1%, but the inflation rate of 9.5% has squeezed the people's day. The domestic anti-war voice has been suppressed, the military wave in Kowagna is still, and the elite lay disagrees about the goal of the war.
The United States pushed for a quick reconciliation after Trump came to power, but intelligence shows that Putin still wants to control the entire Ukraine. European national aid is exhausted, Germany complains France about the burden, and the internal cracks in NATO open up.
Russia's predicament is not a day or two. The effects of sanctions are superimposed, military technology is stuck, and people's livelihood resources are tight. In his speech to the UN Security Council, Lavrov reiterated that Russia used its presidency to examine the Ukrainian issue. Moscow needs space to ease military pressure and stabilize its domestic economy.
The strategic calculations behind the condition list
Lavrov's conditions sound simple, but they are actually layers of routines. First, the security of major powers must be guaranteed by permanent members of the Security Council such as China, Russia and the United States, and the security of Ukraine must be managed. Not only is it putting shackles on Ukraine, but Russia wants to intervene in the European security architecture. Russia has always regarded Ukraine as a buffer zone and does not want NATO's eastward expansion to be squeezed at its doorstep. Article 2: Ukraine is neutral, does not join NATO, and is denuclearized. Straight to Russia's security red line, Putin bites this from beginning to end. Article 3. Recognize the territorial results of the referendum. Crimea and the four eastern regions can recognize it.
Why does this list go to the United States? The Trump administration came to power and emphasized that Europe would provide more money to aid Ukraine, while the United States itself wanted to withdraw. Russia seized this gap, talked about negotiations, and amplified the contradiction between Europe and the United States. If the United States does not accept it, Europe will complain; if Europe relents, the NATO camp will be split. Lavrov said in an interview that the West is blocking the road to peace. This move is like the 2014 Minsk Agreement, which revives the talk of freezing conflicts and leaves a way out for Russia to make a comeback.
China and Russia are strategic partners, energy and trade are tightly bound, China also sends coal to the Russian economy in the snow. But the history is deep, from the expansion of the territory of the Shah Russian era, to the dissolution of the Soviet Union, there is no easy way to cross the ground. Russia is afraid of weakness, has lost the negotiation code. More importantly, in the Sino-US-Russian triangle, Russia wants to eat with two heads, and use the U.S. and China to harvest the benefits.
Russia is careful in this calculation. It wants to divide the West, kidnap the geographical structure, and solidify territorial gains. Speaking after the BRICS summit, Lavrov said that all parties have a deep understanding of the causes of the Ukraine crisis. But deep down, I still want to maintain the influence of Eastern Europe. Concessions are false, but procrastinating for reorganization is true. Russia is not stupid. It knows that it is difficult to go alone and has to leverage its strength.
China's neutrality safeguards long-term interests
China, on the Russian-Ukrainian issue, has been stable neutral, supports dialogue negotiations, is not impartial.The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is the essence of Russia and the West geography, why is China involved? directly help Russia, European relations collapse, NATO has to jump.
China-Russia is a comprehensive strategic cooperation partner, economic and trade cooperation is warm, energy pipelines are running, Central Asia projects are moving forward. China is happy to see Russia steadfast, but not flooded. The northern border is stable, in history the Soviet Union has given pressure, now Russia weaknesses, but has not collapsed, just let it with the West mutual consumption, no effort in the Far East. China also wants to be a mediator in the post-conflict era, to maintain a transcendent position, both to do business with Europe and to secure the energy chain with Russia.
China-Russia relations are iron and mutual trust is deep, but Russia has its own arrogance and is unwilling to bow publicly. China did not push it forward, and keeping a distance is the best policy.
Russia is a partner and has to be friendly to each other, but China's interests come first.