On the afternoon of October 4, when Takashi Saami received the president's certificate at the Liberal Democratic Party headquarters, the audience applauded loudly.

The 64-year-old political veteran finally reached the peak of power after three challenges. Japan's first female prime minister seems to be close at hand.

But who could imagine that just six days later, the ruling ally, the Communist Party, declared "break up" in front of the party, and there were also people in the party who openly proposed "change of people".

From the stars of the moon to all the faces of the Chu-gui, High-Size Morning Shui is experiencing the shortest "Honeymoon Period" in Japanese politics.

A break announced in advance

On the afternoon of 10 October, in the meeting room of the Tokyo Parliament Building, the party representative of the Communist Party,Õ«ÌÙÌú·ò, and the party leader of High City,ÔçÃç, held a second meeting.

When the core question is thrown out: can you now give a clear answer to the reinforcement of corporate and group donation regulations?

Takashi responded that the party needed to go through procedures and hoped to talk about it next week. Saito didn't give her a chance and announced on the spot that Komeito decided to withdraw from the ruling coalition.

After the meeting, High City faced reporters at the People's Party headquarters, repeatedly stressing that this is a "one-sided notification" of the party, and said that if he and the chief executive can decide on the donation regulation, it is "dictatorship", but this excuse is more like trying to find a ladder.

The dissatisfaction of the Communist Party was already written on the face, and on October 4, when the high city was elected, Ramiro came to her door to "remind" her of three issues: political donations, visiting the Yogyakarta church and foreigners' policies.

Takashi made a vague statement on the latter two issues, but on the issue of political contributions, he only said "it will be reviewed afterwards", which is tantamount to nothing to the Komeito Party.

Why are political contributions so sensitive? Last year, the scandal of "unrecorded political funds" of the Liberal Democratic Party caused a lot of noise, and several factional members were exposed to have received unreported money.

The Komeito Party sells "clean politics", and their supporter Soka Gakkai is particularly sensitive to this kind of thing. Continuing to partner with the Liberal Democratic Party is tantamount to smearing one's own face.

What is even more troublesome is that in the newly established executive department of Gaoshi, two of the three core positions of vice president, secretary-general, and general affairs president have been given to Aso faction people.

Moreover, Hagiuda Koichi, who was involved in the scandal, was appointed as the acting chief secretary, which directly angered the Komeito Party. You said that you wanted to clean up the house, but the people involved were still sitting in high positions. Isn't this a slap in the face?

A math problem that gets more and more panicked with calculations

The Communist Party went away, left to the high market is the difficult to solve mathematical issue, the Japanese House of Representatives 465 seats, the majority needs 233 seats, the Self-Democratic Party currently only 196 seats, originally plus the Communist Party 24 seats just 220 seats, although the gap of 13 seats but the problem is not great, now the Communist Party has withdrawn, the Self-Democratic Party suddenly lacks 37 seats.

Where did these 37 seats come from?Japan's Vichy will have 35 seats, the National Democratic Party will have 27 seats, the Constitutional Democratic Party will have 148 seats, according to the rule, the high market only needs to bring Vichy or the National Democratic Party, and then find a small party to put together is enough, but the reality is more complicated than the account.

On October 5th, Yoshimura Yoshimura of the Japanese Reform Association said: If the Liberal Democratic Party agrees to the 'Deputy Capital of Osaka' plan, we can talk. This plan is to transfer some central government functions to Osaka, which is equivalent to rebuilding a political center outside Tokyo.

This proposal that shakes the foundation of the country cannot be passed within the Liberal Democratic Party. Therefore, on the surface, the Reform Association said that it could be talked about, but in fact it politely refused.

The attitude of the national democracy party Yumiko Yumiko is more ambiguous, and in order to prevent the rise of high markets, the constitutional democracy party even proposed to promote Yumiko as prime minister and form an opposition coalition government.

Tamaki said that it was "inconsistent with the policy of the Constitutional Democratic Party", but he didn't explicitly express his support for the high market. He was waiting for the price to see who gave the better conditions.

The largest variable was the Constitutional Democratic Party, and after the withdrawal of the Communist Party, the political map suddenly came to life.

The Constitutional Democratic Party has 148 seats, the Reform Association has 35 seats and the National Democratic Party has 27 seats. The three companies add up to 210 seats, 14 more than the Liberal Democratic Party's 196 seats. If the opposition parties can really unite, the first round of the Prime Minister's nomination election will lose.

According to the Japanese constitution, in the first round no one more than half entered the final election, the first two oppose, who will be the prime minister, and if the final stage, the 24 votes of the Communist Party will be cast to whom?

Within the party anti-water, the people themselves started pushing out.

On October 12, the senior MP of the Self-Democratic Party, Shijiazhuang Yuan, publicly put forward two options on social media: either to withdraw the resignation application and temporarily become prime minister; or to resign the chairman and re-elect within the party.

Funata Yuan has worked in the Liberal Democratic Party for decades, and his words have weight. His statement is tantamount to publicly badmouthing the high market in the party, and some supporters are anxious on the Internet, calling it a "coup within the party".

But SenatorÒ°´åÕÜÀÉ also followed the statement that the self-government party might regret launching the high market, and it was her conservative actions that led to the situation today.

The core reason is that the political stance of the high city is too extreme. She is a follower of the Iron Belt of the late Prime Minister Abe, the "woman version of Abe", she visited Yogyakarta as a cabinet minister several times, the last time it was on the day of surrender on August 15, this year, she has a tough attitude toward China policy, these positions make the public party and middle voters very uncomfortable.

The pragmatic faction in the Liberal Democratic Party actually prefers Koizumi Shinjiro.

Young, good image, moderate position, if he was elected, the public party would not divide the family at all.

But the Aso faction voted for Takashi at a critical moment, allowing her to defeat Koizumi 185 votes to 156 in the runoff.

As for why the Aso faction supports Takaichi? It was because Takaichi promised to arrange important positions for Aso's troops, which turned into a political deal, at the cost of pushing the Liberal Democratic Party to a more conservative line.

Now the situation has collapsed, the inside of the party has begun to count, if High City really loses to the opposition candidate in the prime minister nomination election, the Democratic Party will lose its ruling position.

For a political party that has ruled for more than 60 years, this is a shame and disgrace, so they suggested "changing people" not for individuals, but to keep the Democratic Party in power.

The difficulty of breaking the situation is that every road is a dead end

Theoretically, there are still several ways for Takashi. The first way is to stick to the end, hoping that some opposition party members will "find their conscience" and fall to the Liberal Democratic Party when voting in the runoff election. However, this kind of operation is too risky, and once she fails, she will become a complete joke.

Article 2 is to initiate concessions and promise to meet the party's demands on the issue of political donations, but this equals to blaming Mato and the party's existing interest groups, and her chairman's seat is unstable.

In addition, of the three conditions of the public party, donations are only one, the Yogyakarta worship and foreigners policy are equally important, these are high-market political labels, all concessions equal to self-denial.

The third is the "decent withdrawal" proposed by Yuanti Funata. Takashi voluntarily resigned as president, re-elected the party, and launched candidates acceptable to all parties. This will at least keep the ruling position of the Liberal Democratic Party, and Takashi can also leave the title of "the first female president" in the history of the party.

But the third path is too difficult for Gaoshi. She has struggled for more than 30 years and challenged the presidential election three times. She finally got her wish at the age of 64. How could she be willing to hand it over to others? What's more, there is the support of the Aso faction behind her. As long as these big shots do not relent, she will have the confidence to continue to carry on.

Now the most crucial variable is the National Democratic Party, which, although not many seats in the 27 seats, may play a decisive role in the equilibrium pattern.

The Self-Democratic Party and the Constitutional Democratic Party are all strenuously pulling him, and the conditions put forward are one by one seductive, and Yuki now pretends to be "I am very obsessed" with the appearance, in fact at the highest price, this political hacker role plays a lot, but it is also the easiest to turn the car.

conclusion

There is still about a week before the revised National Assembly convenes. Gao Shi is holding talks every day to try to break the deadlock, but her situation will only become more and more difficult. The voices of dissatisfaction within the party will become louder and louder. The attitude of the Komeito Party will be firm and the opposition parties will be eyeing it.

Politics has never been dramatic, but this change in Japanese politics has indeed shown the resilience of the democratic system.

Regardless of who eventually becomes prime minister, Japan¡¯s political system is operating according to established rules, and for us, the political situation in our neighbors is worth paying attention, but more importantly, focusing on its own development.

A stable political environment and continuous reform and opening up are the foundation of a country's long-term stability.

New York Times 2025-10-10 Japan's Communist Party will break out of the ruling coalition

Observer.com 2025-10-12 A senior member of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party proposed: Takaichi Sanae should not resign and re-election