Author: Cao Warin Leiden University Regional Research Institute
This article was published exclusively on Tencent News
The “Political Circle”
On the political stage of Paris, a play whose reality is more absurd than drama has just been staged. Last Monday, Sebastian Le Corney was working on forming a new government 14 hours later, he announced his resignation, set a record in the history of the Fifth Republic of France "The shortest-lived prime minister"On Friday, local time, after days of unsuccessful political consultations, French President Macron made an unexpected decision: Le Corny re-appointed as prime minister。
The same prime minister resigned and was reinstated within the same week-this dramatic "revolving door" operation nakedly exposed the political crisis at the Elysee Palace.
According to the author, Le Corney's "flash" and "flash" are not the president's personal heartbeat, but the inevitable result of the political fragmentation of France since last year's parliamentary elections and the emptiness of presidential power. Macron's helpless move marks that his remaining 18-month term has entered a "lame duck" state ahead of schedule.This crisis not only shattered the political stability of France, but also It raises fundamental challenges to the semi-presidential model with a strong president as the core since the establishment of the Fifth Republic.。
The Birth of the “One-Day Prime Minister”: Political Paralysis Under Fragmented Parliament
This crisis is inseparable from the early parliamentary election promoted by Macron last year-the election failed to produce any political force with an absolute majority, whether it was the centrist alliance to which the president belongs, the left-wing alliance, or the far-right "National Alliance", none of which reached the threshold for controlling seats in parliament. The resulting “suspended parliament” laid the structural foundation for the current political impasse.。Under this fragmented power structure, every legislation of the government, especially the key annual budgets, must struggle to find cross-party support in parliament.
In this impasse, The main reason Le Corney resigned was because he clearly recognized that in the current political climate he was taking on a “mission that was impossible to accomplish.”: That is, to form a government that can win the trust of parliament without making major compromises to the opposition parties. The opposition parties, especially the left and far right, made it clear from the outset that they rejected any kind of cooperation and would immediately launch a vote of no confidence in the new government. Le Corny's resignation declared that Macron's illusion of trying to solve the structural political crisis through small-scale personnel adjustment was completely disillusioned.
“Talking to the Wall”: Macron’s political isolation and the hard stance of all factions
In the days after Leclerc's resignation, Macron urgently called the leaders of the opposition parties in the Elysée Palace to try to find a way out of the crisis. However, this dialogue, which should have been a pursuit of consensus, eventually evolved into an unsuccessful monotony and further highlighted the profound irreconcilable opposition between the president and the parliamentary factions.
Illustration: Results of the 2024 French parliamentary election
According to Reuters, the reaction of all parties to Macron's reappointment of Le Korney was almost overwhelmingly negative. Marina Le Pen, leader of the far-right National League party, warned: "All parties that helped Macron stall for time to implement this shameful manipulation will be held accountable in the next election." This suggests that The far right has seen the crisis as political capital to further attack Macron in future elections。
The reaction from the Left Camp was equally fierce, with the leader of the hard-left “Non-French” party, Matilde Pano, accusing Macron of “wanting to rule through disgust and anger” and predicting his departure was “inevitable”.
One participant complained to the media after the meeting that talking with the president was like “talking to a wall,” vividly reflecting Macron’s deepening political isolation.
In this embattled situation, Macron finally chose to re-appoint Le Corny, which was A helpless move after all attempts failed-he has been unable to find a new prime minister who can bridge parliamentary divisions and gain minimal acceptance from all parties。
03 The "Sword of Damocles" of the Budget and the Practical Dilemma of Governance
Behind this political farce, there is a realistic "Sword of Damocles"- The government must submit the draft national budget for 2026 to Parliament before the harsh deadline on October 13.According to the French Constitution, after the draft budget is submitted, the parliament has 70 days to debate and pass the budget. Missing this deadline will mean delays in the whole legislative process, and may even lead to a government shutdown early next year.
This puts a lot of pressure on Leclerc, who has just resigned. He must appoint at least three key ministers in the finance, budget and social security sectors in a very short time to be able to submit the draft budget to the Cabinet. According to Reuters analysis, the central goal of the draft budget is to reduce the fiscal deficit to the GDP in next year from 5.4% to 4.7% to 5% this year. Nonetheless, Leclerc excluded the leftist proposal to impose a 2% wealth tax on billionaires.
However, the real challenge lies with Parliament. In the absence of a majority of seats by any party, the draft budget would almost be substantially adjusted by lawmakers.Leclerc had previously pledged that he would not use Article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows the government to enforce special powers to pass legislation without parliamentary vote, because he knew that this move would almost inevitably trigger an opposition vote of no confidence, which would lead to the government fall again.
this creates An unsolvable dilemma: If you stick to the draft budget, it is likely that it will not be passed in Parliament; If the government makes significant concessions to the draft in order to win support, it will not meet its fiscal target of deficit reduction. Some left-wing members even suspect that the government's strategy may be to deliberately prevent the parliament from passing any version of the budget within 70 days, so that the government can implement its original budget plan by promulgating decrees according to the constitutional provisions.
If the new Le Corny government eventually falls due to a vote of no confidence, France will face the dilemma after the overthrow of Prime Minister Barnier last December. Parliament must then pass an emergency "stopgap legislation" authorizing the government to spend, tax, and borrow in the new year until the new government can pass a full budget. While this would avoid a US-style government shutdown, it would impose severe constraints on public finances and further exacerbate economic uncertainty.
A carefully calculated bet: Can Macron complete the remainder of his term?
Faced with pressure from political opponents to demand his resignation or to hold an early general election, Macron re-appointed Leclerc as a defensive strategy that was precisely calculated. While avoiding the high-risk option of holding immediate parliamentary elections, attempts have been made to force the government to restore stability in order to maintain the administrative control of Macron himself for the remainder of his term.
The reappointment of Le Corney began with a clear signal from Macron: he refused to give in to pressure for early elections. In the current public opinion environment, holding early parliamentary elections is generally considered to be the most beneficial to the far-right "National Alliance" led by Marina Le Pen. Therefore, Macron's choice is to find an extremely narrow governance path in the current divided parliamentary structure without taking greater political risks.
In order to enable this strategy to be implemented, Macron gave Leicester a great deal of operational space. According to the president’s affidavit, Leicester was given the power to form a government and negotiate a budget.” Full authorizationThe French term “carte blanche” means “all authority entrusted”. The President is willing to give the Prime Minister full flexibility.to enter the cabinet with characters from different political backgrounds and to negotiate as much as possible with the parties on the budget.This is a strategy that attempts to compensate for the political isolation of the president himself with the political wrist of the prime minister.
However, it remains a high-risk gambling. Because the move did not replace the opposition’s reconciliation, it instead sparked more sharp criticism. The major opposition parties not only failed to show any willingness to compromise, but promised to immediately initiate a vote of distrust against the new government. This meant that the Leclerc government would face the risk of being overthrown from the first day of its establishment. Macron hoped to show a loyal and fully authorized prime minister’s image, forcing parliamentary moderators (especially within the center-right Republican Party) to choose between the risks of national economic stability and the possible rise of the far right, thus in exchange for their abstinence or abstinence in critical budget votes. This is essentially a political deal designed to "overwhelm differences with stability."。
International Geopolitics: A “Global President” Trapped by Home Affairs
This profound domestic political crisis will inevitably have a significant negative impact on France’s international role and President Macron’s geopolitical ambitions. Macron has been trying to shape himself as a leader with global influence, actively engaging in a range of major international affairs from the war in Ukraine to the conflict in the Middle East. However, a president who is “politically radioactive” at home, his international credibility and capacity for action will be greatly discounted.
In Ukraine, France’s leadership will be weakened。 Macron is one of the key promoters of Europe's tough stance on Russia, and has repeatedly called on Europe to strengthen its own defense capabilities to deal with Russia's long-term threats. However, the credibility of a government that struggles to pass even a domestic budget will be questioned by allies in its promise to increase defense spending and provide long-term assistance to Ukraine. Domestic political turmoil will distract the president's energy and make it more difficult for him to build consensus and play a leadership role within the EU on major issues such as aiding Ukraine and resisting Russia.
Both in domestic and diplomatic matters, Macron is in a difficult position – a “global president” severely entangled by domestic affairs, whose foreign policy ambitions eventually have to slide toward domestic political realities. France, this traditional world power, may thus enter a period of relatively introspective and influential contraction.。
The Day of the Fifth Republic?
Lecorney’s “return” is not the end of the crisis, but probably the beginning of a deeper turmoil. The remainder of Macron’s term of office is likely to be exhausted in a continuing battle with a hostile parliament.。
The impact of this crisis has gone far beyond the Budget or the stability of the government. In fact, it raises a more fundamental question: Against the background of increasingly divided voters and the continuous decline of center-left and right parties, can the semi-presidential system with a strong president as the core of power still work effectively since the establishment of the Fifth Republic of France in 1958? More likely, it has increased the bargaining chips for Marine Le Pen and his far-right party to win the Elysee Palace in next year's presidential election.