Japanese politics's "changing game", originally thought to be a sequel ceremony, but now suddenly turns, originally scheduled for the October 15th prime minister nomination elections, with the collapse of the ruling coalition, the nightmare of the prime minister of the high market.

What is even more confusing is that Gao Shi, who has always been known for being tough on China, actually "softened his stance" after being elected president of the Liberal Democratic Party. He no longer shouted for amending the constitution or fighting and killing. Instead, he looked like a "peace" gesture.

The response of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is also quite meaningful. It only reminds lightly that "I hope the Japanese side will keep its promise" without even a blessing. Is Takashi's "face change" a tactical sign of weakness or forced by the situation?

And behind her right-hand struggle, a black horse named Yumiko Iro, is quietly rising, this situation, the real winner of Japan, maybe someone else.

Gaoshi has no backer

The trouble in the high market, which began on October 10, just before the election, the ruling partner Public Party suddenly "turned the face", the party's leader, Ramiro Tifov, first put forward the "political donation system reform" condition, revealed that the high market should give a bit of sincerity, and the result is that the high market does not buy the account.

So, the public party simply announced the withdrawal from the governing coalition, this move, not only a playboy, but also accurately hit the high-market seven centimeters, from the election data, last October's House elections, the governing coalition had been seriously injured, the total seat of only 215 seats, less than the previous 64 seats.

Among them, the Komeito Party itself was also having a difficult time. It only won 24 seats and lost 8 seats. Saito "made trouble" at this time, not only to preserve his territory, but also to tear a "clean" image from the Liberal Democratic Party.

More importantly, the Liberal Democratic Party now has only 191 seats in the House of Representatives, which is still a long way away from the threshold of more than half of the 233 votes. The 24 votes of the Komeito Party may not be too much, but for Gao Shi, they are the key to whether they can sit on the throne of Prime Minister.

Looking at Saito's calculations, he is not just to save his life in the election. He also wants to take advantage of this opportunity of "purging political black money" to pull down the old faces of the Liberal Democratic Party who have been notorious for the corruption scandals of the "Abe faction" and "Second-Class faction faction".

Using the word "reform", the Communist Party attempts to get rid of the image of the self-government party and show the voters that "I am different from them", which is both a moral gesture and a political strategy.

But for the high market, this breakup is not a "peaceful breakup", and as soon as the public party went, she immediately fell into an isolated and helpless situation, without allies, those who had been silently watching inside and outside the party, also began to move a different mindset, and this includes one of the names she most did not want to see:ÓñľÐÛÒ»ÀÉ.

Jade is shaped.

On the same night that Takashi was still arguing with the Komeito Party, Yuichiro Tamaki, the leader of the National Democratic Party, suddenly announced his candidacy. This move added to the already chaotic situation.

What makes Takashi even more uneasy is that Tamaki is not only fighting alone, but he also won the support of the Japan Reform Association and some Constitutional Democratic Party. According to theoretical calculation, the upper limit of potential votes in Tamaki's hands is as high as 213, which is only 20 votes less than the majority threshold.

This is not to try the water, it is to come to the rhythm of "rape the dish", the attractiveness of Yuki, not only because he is a "black horse", but because he and the high market are basically two ways, he advocates pacifism, emphasizes neutrality, does not engage in external hardness, and does not play domestic polarization.

This line, compared with Takaichi's far-right label in his early years, seems to come from another planet. For those voters who are tired of the factional struggle and tough policies of the Liberal Democratic Party, Tamaki's moderation and rationality just happen to be a kind of "clean stream".

More interestingly, the "black horse" of Yuki, behind which there may be a "creator of the king", the former prime minister, although not currently elected, he has never been cold about the high market.

In his early years, he was marginalized due to internal strife among discontented factions. Now that he sees a Yumu with similar ideals rushing out, he may not "secretly help". If Shi Po's connections and influence tilt towards Yumu, the situation will be completely rewritten.

Of course, Yuki is not without "black history", his part of marriage and affairs scandal once damaged his reputation, but today's Japanese politics, has long been not the arena of moral supremacy, in the face of major route choice, voters more concerned about the policy and pattern, past private affairs, in turn became "not so important" background sound.

This game was originally a "civil war" between Gaoshi and the Komeito Party, but now it was stirred up by Yumu into a three-way scuffle. Gaoshi wanted to rely on the "second round relative majority" to force himself to the throne, but faced with Yumu's step-by-step pressure, whether he could survive the second round became a question mark.

It's hard for anyone to go on

Even if the high market hard-heartedly crossed the end line, or Yumi counter-attack success, etc. in front of them is not a celebration party, but a chicken wool, Japanese politics is now in the pattern of "King Xiaobo", who sits on the prime minister's seat, must first learn three highly difficult balancing techniques.

The gap between China and the United States is getting narrower, the Japanese prime minister has to find its foothold in it, and the high market has been controversial because of pro-US, pro-Taiwan and anti-Chinese remarks, this sudden "low gesture", probably because she realized that if she continued to hard, Japan's economy and regional stability were self-suffering.

And Yuki's neutral diplomatic claim, a more realistic option, but this can also cause domestic hawks dissatisfaction, in a word, it is not good to go anyway.

No matter who is in power, he cannot have a stable majority. Every time a policy is advanced, he has to "bargain" with the opposition parties. Legislative efficiency is inefficient and policies change day after day, which is likely to become a daily reflection of the new government, not to mention that there are still many people in the parliament. People are waiting to see the new prime minister "wrestle".

Self-Democratic party faction Lin Li, if the high market came to power, I am afraid to have to reassure the old party forces that "have not gained the benefits" first.

It is formed by a number of small parties, with various internal demands. If you are careless, you may fall apart. No matter who you are, you have to survive in the cracks. If you hesitate a little, you may become the next Shigeru Ishiba to be "forced into the palace".

Under this background, Gao Shi suddenly "became gentle", which can actually be understood. This is not her conscience discovery, but a thorough view of the reality: it is important to put the political ideal aside for the time being, and it is important to keep the position first. This kind of "correction" is more like a helpless self-protection, and it is her last attempt to keep her chips in a complicated pattern.

From the withdrawal of the Komeito Party, to Yuichiro Tamaki's spoiler, and then to the advance and retreat of power towards Ono, this logical change of prime minister turned into a multi-party wrestling melee.

Whether the high market can climb the top is no longer the only point of view, and it is truly worth concerning whether Japan will take this opportunity to get out of the monstrous circle of extreme politics and return to the path of rational and balanced governance.

If Yumi eventually wins, it may mean that Japan will temporarily stay away from the risks of anti-China and right-wing adventures, bringing a front-line breathing space for China-Japan relations, which the Chinese Foreign Ministry has previously chosen to "consider cautiously", in fact, is also because of seeing this potential turning point in Japanese politics.

But whoever comes to power and wants to stabilize the situation is not easy, the new prime minister is destined to start in turmoil, to move forward in compromise, this election, its impact far beyond who sits on the first cross chair in Congress.

More about Japan's future political direction and the subtle adjustment of the regional pattern, and the "abnormal" self-help of the high market, in the end, is a breakup, or out, can only be given time to answer.

Source of information:

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