China just called for a ceasefire on the Ba’a border, and Trump couldn’t sit down, rushed out and said he was “willful to help” – would the U.S. military take this opportunity to return to Afghanistan?
According to multiple media reports such as Observer Network, Guangming Network, Phoenix Network, etc., on October 8, the Pakistan Taliban (TTP) sneaked into Pakistan from Afghanistan and attacked border posts in Khyber Pakhtun Province.
On October 10, the Pakistani side directly deployed JF-17 "Dragon" fighters, F-16 fighters and winged dragon armed drones, airstrikes on four major cities in Afghanistan, claiming to destroy the bases of Bata.
In the late evening of October 11, the Afghan Taliban retaliated against the attack on the Pakistani border post. The Pakistan side said 23 people were killed, 29 people were wounded, 200 militants were killed; the Afghan side said 9 were killed, 16 wounded, 58 people were killed, 30 people were wounded. This became the most intense border conflict between the two countries after the Taliban took power in 2021.
On October 13, China's Foreign Ministry expressed its hope that Ba'a will "focus on the general situation and calm restraint", resolve differences through dialogue and consultation, and specifically ask the two countries to guarantee the security of Chinese personnel, projects and institutions in the local area.
However, almost at the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump, on his way to Israel by Air Force One, said he was "good at ending the war", willing to help mediate the Ba'a conflict, and also mentioned that he had "solved the conflict in India".
Compared with the way China and the United States pay attention to this matter, China's first call to persuade peace this time is not an empty statement at all, but a tangible interest consideration.
Pakistan and Afghanistan are both friendly neighbors of China. As an important cooperation project between the two countries, some sections of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor are close to the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. As soon as the conflict escalates, the construction safety and subsequent operation of the corridor will definitely be affected.
Therefore, China's position is very real: it is not to help any party, it is only to promote a ceasefire and solve the problem through consultation, which is both to safeguard regional stability and protect its legitimate interests.
Trump hastened to jump out to mediate, behind it is all his own calculation, far more than "convincing" as simple. From the political level, he just used the ceasefire in Gaza, marks his "diplomatic capabilities", now the Ba'a conflict erupted, and can use this opportunity to continue to shape the image of the "war terminator" and accumulate diplomatic capital for himself.
More notably, Trump previously announced that he would take back Afghanistan’s Bagram Air Force Base – the base that was once the core hub of the U.S. Army, only an hour’s flight from the Chinese border, can both monitor Central Asia, but can look at the surrounding resource sites, and is of extremely high strategic value.
Moreover, on October 2, Pakistan had just signed a memorandum on rare earth supply with the United States to export the first batch of rare earths to the United States. Trump's statement of mediation at this time also meant to maintain US-Pakistan cooperation and pave the way for subsequent acquisition of more resources.
However, Trump's calculations may be difficult to implement, because not only Afghanistan does not agree, China, Russia, India and Pakistan and other countries have clearly expressed their rejection of the matter because Afghanistan's strategic position is too important.
Afghanistan explicitly refused to hand over the Bagram base, for reasons: “Opposition to foreign troops” was an important basis for the legitimacy of the Taliban rule in Afghanistan, and a 20-year battle between the U.S. military and that historical memory made it impossible for them to relax.
Moreover, in reality, if the U.S. military wants to reoccupy the base, it will have to send at least 10,000 soldiers and bear huge maintenance and logistics costs. The supply lines in the interior of Afghanistan are easily attacked by militants, making it extremely difficult to operate. Trump's "mediation" has no key prerequisite for implementation.
Both Bahá'í countries are in a difficult situation in this game.Pakistan's core demands are to fight Bata - the October 8 attack that killed 11 Bahá'í soldiers, which was the direct cause of their airstrikes on Afghanistan.
However, Pakistan does not dare to escalate the conflict: on the one hand, it must take into account China's conciliation stance, otherwise the cooperation in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will be affected; on the other hand, it must maintain rare earth cooperation with the United States and cannot completely disobey the will of the United States.
The same goes for the Afghan side, both to reject the US military invasion and safeguard its sovereignty, and to deal with the next actions of the Pakistani side, at the same time the domestic economy needs international assistance, so there is no further escalation of the conflict after Pakistan's retaliation, only to find a balance between "conservation" and "seeking survival".
Looking at this, the U.S. military wants to return to Afghanistan through the Ba'a conflict, the possibility is very small. Trump's statement is more like a political marketing, save a little speech for itself. Instead, China's persuasion position, received the recognition of third-party countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, has become a key force to promote the warming of the conflict.
In the final analysis, if the Pakistan-Afghanistan border really calms down, the two countries have to sit down and talk by themselves. The game between big powers can provide an external environment, but it can't solve their problems-after all, only when the region is stable can the interests of all countries be truly guaranteed. Next, it depends on whether Pakistan and Afghanistan will follow the momentum of persuasion and start dialogue, so that the gunfire at the border can stop as soon as possible.