Before you read this article, please click on "Attention", which is both convenient for you to discuss and share, but can bring you a different sense of participation, thank you for your support!
Edited by: Larry Ring
For Afghanistan, everyone must have heard of his famous nickname, Empire Cemetery!
This title is a recognized brand after Afghanistan consumed the British Empire, the Soviet Union and the United States!
However, fearing that few could have thought that after the American expulsion, Afghanistan may have met another opponent, Pakistan.
So what's going on?
The Ba'a conflict
On October 9, the roar of artillery once again sounded in Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan!
Yeah, yeah, Kabul, there's been another attack, and the murderer is the Pakistan Air Force,
According to foreign media speculations, Pakistan's target should be TTP senior commander Nul Vali Mehsud.
Unfortunately, the Pakistan Air Force’s defeat not only failed to injure the opponent, but also killed many civilians and angered the Taliban.
After the incident, the Taliban, who felt deeply affected, first condemned the Pakistan Air Force's act and asked for a statement.
But Pakistan has chosen to ignore, and the pressure has failed.
It should be noted that the TTP here, which makes Pakistan ignore, also has a great origin, but it has put a lot of pressure on Pakistan's security, and even dares to openly attack the Pakistani army.
This year alone, they have killed dozens of Pakistani school generals!
On October 8, the TTP was also in the county of Kuram, in the province of Cape, killing 16 Pakistani soldiers, including a colonel and a major!
But it is clear that these are not within the scope of the Taliban’s consideration, they feel insulted and should take retaliatory measures.
As a result, starting from October 11, the Taliban armed forces launched attacks on multiple Pakistani military strongholds along the Durand Line and declared:
This "successful retaliation" killed 58 Pakistani soldiers and wounded 30 others …
But Pakistan is not easy to bully. As soon as the Taliban attacked, the Pakistani army also began to fight back and also came up with a good news, claiming:
They captured 19 Afghan border posts and killed at least 200 Afghan militants.
Looking at the situation somewhat out of control, many countries have come out to persuade, hoping that the two sides can first extinguish the fire, what can not sit down and talk about?
But surprisingly, although this time, it was obviously Pakistan who made the first move, few countries criticized this too much.
The reasons here are multiple.
First of all, naturally, after the air war between India and Pakistan, Pakistan is now a turned-over serf singing, which is not what it used to be!
Don’t see, even Trump has taken Pakistan as a guest?
Second, after seeing the operation in Afghanistan now, many people are estimated to feel that the Taliban's brains are obviously in trouble, purely looking for smoke!
So why is this?
The Taliban escaped.
I wonder if the Taliban today, like Vietnam in the past, feel that after driving away the US military, they will become the third largest in the world?
So the brain can’t stop doing it.
However, Afghanistan is not guilty of challenging a great country, but of choosing to kneel down a country that should not be kneeling, that is, India.
In 2021, when the Taliban completed the feat of expelling U.S. troops, considering the relationship between the United States and India,
As a result, the Modi government immediately suspended almost all official contact with Afghanistan,
Close the embassy and consulate in Afghanistan and stop issuing visas... so that the two countries can only rely on drift bottles to contact each other for the first time.
The Taliban cannot resist the perseverance and never give up any opportunity to please India.
For example, in April this year, after India-Pakistan relations became tense again, Afghanistan did not hesitate to support India.
For another example, India has become Afghanistan's "important regional and economic partner" in the definition of the Taliban.
It is said that the two sides have begun to discuss how to bypass Pakistan and conduct direct trade through Iran.
On October 10, Afghan Foreign Minister Mottaki reached an agreement with Indian Foreign Minister Sujarsen in the Indian capital New Delhi:
The two sides will fully restore diplomatic relations and upgrade their technical delegation in Kabul to an embassy in Afghanistan.
There is no doubt that Afghanistan is now leaning towards India.
This is unbearable for Pakistan.
Originally, the TTP group that attacked the Pakistani army, one of the most important gold owners behind it is India!
However, the senior leaders of the organization can openly operate in Kabul, which is already a great provocation to Pakistan.
Now that the Taliban are so eager to defect to India, they have touched the bottom line of Pakistan!
To know, India was Pakistan's deadly enemy, and after the independence of the two countries in 1947, the first Indo-Pakistan conflict immediately erupted!
Bangladesh, which is now part of Pakistan, was also destroyed by India.
In April this year, India even took advantage of violent attacks in Kashmir, even when there was no evidence at all.
And Pakistan also expressed its willingness to cooperate with the investigation, first threatened to cut off water, and then caused flood damage.
If it wasn't in the Indian-Pakistan air war in May, the Pakistani Air Force by strength pushed back and crushed India's tiger skin, the ghost knows what methods India would use to make Pakistan difficult?
Additionally, from the map we can clearly see that Afghanistan and India, south and north, as a frog, grabbed Pakistan, and if this would successfully unite the two, then Pakistan would really be belly-backed.
In addition, Afghanistan is the central hub for South Asia to connect with Central Asia. Therefore, once Afghanistan unites with India, it will undoubtedly greatly affect Pakistan's interests in Central Asia.
In addition to these real interests, Pakistan cannot swallow this anger!
As early as the Soar War of the last century, Pakistan was already an important wealthy in Afghanistan!
And in the subsequent Afghan war against the United States, Pakistan was also vigorous, giving money to equipment, as well as providing training venues for the Afghan armed forces.
Even today’s Taliban, which has also been supported by Pakistan.
Now well, the old man just helped you to drive the Americans out, and you will be looking for another high branch.
In fact, it is nothing to say, after all, Pakistan itself is also a poor country, and does not get how much money to help Afghanistan build its economy.
But the question is, who are you looking for bad in Afghanistan, why are you looking for India?
Can't Russia?
Isn't a certain Eastern country good?
Why do you say you want to find India? Isn't this a burial ground in Pakistan?
What do the Taliban think?
Diplomacy is the art of the door.
Let’s explain why the Taliban did this.
Anyway, it is also an organization that has been at war with the United States for so many years, and the most basic logic is there.
Where is the logic of the Taliban?
In order to ensure their independence,
As mentioned earlier, in the past few decades, Pakistan has had too deep influence on Afghanistan,
Therefore, as the leader of Afghanistan today, the Taliban must find ways to weaken Pakistan's influence on themselves to avoid becoming a vassal of Pakistan.
Second, the remaining England.
In 1983, under British coercion, Afghanistan had to assign large swaths of its territory to what is now Pakistan's jurisdiction, which resulted in another infamous national border line, the Durand Line.
The Durand Line divides the traditional settlements of the Pashtun and Baluchi ethnic groups into two, creating historical problems that continue to this day between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
About 30 million to 40 million Pashtuns live on both sides of the Durand Line, who are also the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan and the second largest ethnic group in Pakistan.
Today, most of the backbone of the Taliban are Pashtuns from Pakistan.
Therefore, the Taliban have always hoped to redraw the border to achieve Pashtun unity.
But Pakistan naturally won't agree, and in order to prevent reverse infiltration by the Taliban, it also built a fence along the Durand Line.
Unsurprisingly, this behavior of the Pakistani side has sparked widespread dissatisfaction among the Taliban.
In addition, millions of refugees poured into Pakistan during the war, which also brought great social pressure to Pakistan.
So, from the point of view of the Taliban, they would choose to turn face to face with Pakistan and hold onto the Indian thigh, and it is not incomprehensible.
Friends who have some knowledge of China's history can even see a taste of distant friends and close attacks.
But the essence of the art of diplomacy, the Taliban did not possess.
Indeed, from the map, if Afghanistan joined India, then Pakistan would be quite difficult.
But is there a possibility?
Indeed, India does not have the courage to take action against Pakistan.
Instead, Pakistan could put the Taliban on the ground!
Really, please understand that no matter how good a foreign policy is, it must also have specific issues and specific analysis!
Not to see, the Song Dynasty also played two long-distance offensive, and the result was the first time, after the unification of gold and lion, the gold soldiers of the south of the dragon,
The second time, the alliance between Mongolia and Mongolia destroyed the Jin Dynasty, and the Yashan Emperor jumped into the sea.
And in view of India's never-bearing performance, the Taliban's next move may not go anywhere.
Moreover, in fact, as long as the Taliban is unwavering and a mindset develops, no one will find him in trouble.
This is because of the geographical location of Afghanistan.
In September this year, when Trump said that he would return to Afghanistan, China, Russia, Iran and Pakistan immediately jointly voiced that they would respect Afghanistan's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
On October 7, Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Iran and Central Asian countries jointly issued a statement again.
Reaffirmed its “strong support for Afghanistan’s construction of an independent, united and peaceful country” and expressly opposed the deployment of military infrastructure in and around Afghanistan by external forces.
The statements made by these countries have actually provided Afghanistan with the best security guarantee.
In addition, Afghanistan is also a key node in China's "Belt and Road" scope, and can fully take advantage of this east wind to restore its economy.
Unfortunately, it is too long to know whether the days of torture are over, the Taliban seems to not have turned the curve, and in a situation where it is completely possible to win, hard is in exchange for strength.
Conclusion:
The warrior said, “The warrior is the warrior, and the warrior is the warrior.”
While power is the foundation of a country’s status, the role of diplomacy cannot be overlooked.
Especially for a country such as Afghanistan, which is located both in the battlefield of soldiers and is relatively weak, the timing of the trial may be more important.
Source of documentation:
India enthusiastically welcomed the foreign ministers of Afghanistan, upgraded diplomatic relations between the two countries, Afghanistan and Pakistan took action.
Pakistan and Afghanistan fight at border
Beijing Youth Daily: India reopens embassy in Afghanistan
China Net: Pakistani and Afghan troops at the border, the source is Bata
Taliban armed dragon: the United States has raised "tiger" against biting people -
Taliban Foreign Minister travels to India for high-level talks, first high-level meeting in four years